30 Europe The EconomistAugust 31st 2019
21pushing ideas to strengthen what he calls
“European sovereignty”, or its ability to as-
sert its independence as a strategic and
economic bloc. It is also why he sees the
diplomatic role he can realistically play as
primarily that of a “mediating power”.
As it happens, Mr Macron may have an
unusual opportunity to build on the lead-
ership he displayed in Biarritz. One reason
is that, two years after his election, the
French president has built up a global ad-
dress book and got the measure of leaders
such as Mr Trump. In Biarritz Mr Macron
had an impromptu two-hour seafront
lunch à deuxwith the American president,
peeling him away from his hawkish advis-
ers. “Lunch with Emmanuel was the best
meeting we have yet had,” Mr Trump
gushed afterwards on Twitter. In a joint
press conference the usually verbose
French president was careful to use short
words, and appear respectful. “Macron is
very clear about their differences,” says
Benjamin Haddad, of the Atlantic Council,
a think-tank in Washington: “But the g 7
outcome reflects the work that he has been
doing, investing in that relationship for the
past two years, which is now paying off.”
A second is the leadership gap in Eu-
rope. America has grown used to looking to
Mrs Merkel. Yet the chancellor has been
weakened by her party’s electoral difficul-
ties, along with the prospect of recession in
Germany. Brexit, meanwhile, is occupying
all of Britain’s diplomatic bandwidth. Mr
Macron, who keeps a copy of Charles de
Gaulle’s memoirs on his desk, is eager to
occupy the space. To that end, he has
helped manoeuvre France-friendly nomi-
nees into top European jobs, including Ur-
sula von der Leyen, the incoming European
Commission president, and Christine La-
garde at the European Central Bank.
A final factor is France’s relative eco-
nomic resilience. French gdpis expected
to grow by 1.3% this year, compared with
0.5% in Germany. Unemployment is still
8.5%, but that is its lowest level in a decade.
France is less export-dependent than Ger-
many and so less vulnerable to trade turbu-
lence. And it has benefited from the fiscal
boost Mr Macron injected late last year in
response to the gilets jaunesprotests. The
president’s poll ratings have now recovered
to where they were a year ago.
The French, with their universalist as-
pirations, are unusually sensitive to how
well their leaders do abroad. Mr Macron’s
g7 performance was roundly applauded at
home. The summit, wrote Le Monde, was an
“unquestionable success”. Deals may yet
come unstuck. Talks may not materialise.
Disappointments are inevitable. But Biar-
ritz suggested that Mr Macron is growing
into a role as a European leader who is pre-
pared to take risks, push new ideas, and try
to use the multilateral system to ease ten-
sions and defend the liberal order. 7I
t is electionseason in Brandenburg.
Under a generous Friday-evening sun,
the crowd in Wildau, a small commuter
town south of Berlin, thump the tables in
approval as Dietmar Woidke, the state’s
centre-left premier, vows to take the fight
to the far-right Alternative for Germany
party (afd). Regina Bartsch, a retired engi-
neer in the audience, voices her support.
She has voted for other parties in the past,
she says, but this time will plump for Mr
Woidke’s Social Democrats (spd) to keep
the afdfrom coming first. “That’s the most
important thing.”
An election in a state like Brandenburg,
population 2.5m, would usually struggle to
catch the nation’s attention. The campaign
has been dominated by issues like house
prices and transport links to Berlin. Yet the
outcome of three elections in eastern Ger-
many—in Brandenburg and Saxony on
September 1st and Thuringia on October
27th—will resonate nationwide.
There are two reasons for this. The first
is that Germany’s fragmenting party sys-
tem could open the way for the afdto come
first in one or more of the three polls. The
party’s rightward shift in recent years has
earned it a solid block of support across
eastern Germany, where it stokes griev-
ances against refugees, climate policy and
“Wessi” arrogance. Its leader in Branden-
burg, Andreas Kalbitz, who has a history of
dalliance with neo-Nazi organisations, is
the brains behind the Flügel(“wing”), an
ultra-right group slowly taking over the afd
from within. The afdis shunned by every
other party, so it has no hope of entering
coalitions. But its first victory in a state
election would be a watershed for Ger-many. “We will be closely observed to see if
we can overcome this,” says Jörg Steinbach,
Brandenburg’s economy minister.
Mr Woidke, who leads a coalition with
Die Linke, a left-wing party, has belatedly
tried to present the Brandenburg election
as a straight fight between his party and the
afd. The tactic may be working: the spdand
afd are now neck-and-neck in polls. In Sax-
ony the drama may come after the election.
Michael Kretschmer, the premier, who has
fought a strong campaign, is odds-on to
lead the cduto first place. But he has ruled
out coalition talks with either the afdor
Die Linke. That may force him to seek an
unwieldy, left-leaning coalition of three or
even four parties after the vote, infuriating
his party’s conservative base. Many think it
is time to remove the cordon sanitaire
around the afd, however much that would
irritate the cdu’s national leadership. Mr
Kalbitz’s antennae, naturally, are up. After
Angela Merkel is gone, he says, “it’s just a
question of time” before the cduagrees to
work with the afd. The dam will break first
in the east, he adds.
The second reason to watch the state
elections is for the national fallout. Ger-
many’s “grand coalition” between the cdu
(plus its Bavarian sister party) and the spd
has long been in intensive care. It is ailed
by quarrels over taxes, pensions and cli-
mate policy. In the past year both parties
have seen leaders resign after poor state-
election results. Disasters in Brandenburg
and Saxony would sharpen the pain. In par-
ticular, for the spdto lose power in Bran-
denburg, a state it has run for 30 years,
“could be the straw that breaks the camel’s
back,” says Jochen Franzke, a political sci-
entist at the University of Potsdam. Na-
tionally the party is quarrelsome and deep-
ly unpopular; it now sits behind the afd
and the Greens in opinion polls. Many of its
restive members long to quit government
and lick their wounds in opposition.
At a party congress in December the spd
must decide whether to do just that. The
question will therefore hover over the
party’s leadership contest, which starts in
earnest in September. Winning in Bran-
denburg would help continuity candidates
like Olaf Scholz, Germany’s vice-chancellor
and finance minister, who changed his
mind about running when the thinness of
the field became embarrassing. Mr Woidke,
a Scholz supporter, calls the discussion
over staying in government “superfluous”.
But some of Mr Scholz’s rivals are already
urging a walkout. Poor election results will
help them make their case.
The cdu, meanwhile, has begun to lose
its way as Mrs Merkel, who will leave office
before the next election, steps away from
front-line politics. Annegret Kramp-Kar-
renbauer, who took over the party leader-
ship from the chancellor last December,
stumbles from one gaffe to another, mostPOTSDAM AND WILDAU
State elections in Germany’s east will
test the creaking governmentGerman politicsAutumn of the
coalition
Rising alternativeSource: National pollsGermany, state-election polling*
Selected parties, %Brandenburg Saxony*Poll of polls2015 1917010203040GreensSPDFDPAfD LeftCDU2015 1917010203040
CDUGreensSPDFDPLeftAfD