44 Middle East & Africa The EconomistAugust 31st 2019
“E
lephants excite most children,”
says Timex Moalosi, the chief of San-
kuyo, in northern Botswana. “But not
ours.” Since the country’s former presi-
dent, Ian Khama (pictured, left), suspend-
ed game-hunting in 2014, pachyderms
have besieged the village, stomping crops
and scaring kids. The destruction upset
residents, as did the loss of income from
selling permits to gun-wielding tourists.
So when Mokgweetsi Masisi, Botswana’s
current president (right), reversed the ban
in May, Sankuyo rejoiced.
Others were unhappy. For Mr Khama,
the decision was seemingly the straw that
broke the elephant’s back. The ex-presi-
dent said he should not have anointed the
“immature” Mr Masisi in 2018. In May Mr
Khama left the Botswana Democratic Party
(bdp), which has ruled since independence
in 1966, and endorsed a new party, the Bo-
tswana Patriotic Front (bpf). The bpf is
loosely allied to the main opposition co-
alition, the Umbrella for Democratic
Change (udc). Elections are in October.
At first glance it is a personal feud. Mr
Masisi has ditched flagship policies of Mr
Khama’s, like the hunting ban. He has cut
his predecessor’s privileges, such as flying
on official aircraft. He has dismissed Mr
Khama’s allies, including Isaac Kgosi, the
intelligence chief. It is rumoured that Mr
Masisi broke a promise to appoint Mr
Khama’s younger brother, Tshekedi, as
vice-president. But for all the elements of
soap opera, the drama is deeply serious.
Botswana, arguably Africa’s most success-
ful state, is in unprecedented flux.
When it became independent it was one
of the world’s poorest countries. The
southern African state, almost the size of
France, had 7.5 miles of paved roads; 22 citi-
zens had degrees. In the parliament of the
outgoing colonial power, Britain, a speaker
warned of “the appalling difficulties which
will confront this young republic”.
Botswana proved its doubters wrong. It
has held regular elections, avoided civil
war and developed into one of the richest
countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Its gdp
per person is $18,650, higher than South Af-
rica’s ($13,870) and similar to countries
such as China, Costa Rica and Serbia. Bo-
tswana, writes one historian, “stands out
as a unique example” in Africa.
How to explain its success? Its small
population (2.25m) and a shared culture
help. But it has more people than Equatori-al Guinea, a kleptocratic petro-state, and is
more diverse than people assume. Today
academics focus on its institutions. If Zim-
babwe fascinates economists for all the
wrong reasons, Botswana interests politi-
cal scientists for all the right ones.
It has largely avoided the “resource
curse” that has led mineral-rich African
states to corruption and conflict. After dia-
monds were found in 1967 in Botswana the
government enacted laws to share the pro-
ceeds and spend them on infrastructure
and education. The partnership between
the government and De Beers, a diamond
company, predates independence; neither
has taken the other to court. Botswana’s is a
story of “well-managed good luck”, says
Keith Jefferis, a consultant.
Institutions do not, however, emerge
from thin air. They reflect political cul-
tures. Botswana drew on fairly pluralistic
precolonial institutions, such as the kgotla,
or council. It had an elite that subscribed to
the rule of law. This was partly out of self-
interest: property rights suited the cattle-
owning nobility. But there were also
unusually enlightened leaders. Sir Seretse
Khama, Botswana’s first president and
Ian’s father, was the “paramount chief” in
the area where diamonds were found. But
he passed laws preserving mineral rights
for the nation, not his chieftaincy.
In some eyes Ian Khama’s moves repu-diate his father’s legacy. Mr Khama is also
the “paramount chief” of the Bangwato,
who populate the country’s central district.
Unlike his father, who stressed that chiefs
and politicians must not mix their roles,
the ex-president is using his tribal author-
ity for electoral gain. “He is eroding our
norms,” says one businessman. Mr Khama
may consider that worth it. One-third of
Botswana’s 57 parliamentary seats are in
his district. All but one are held by the bdp,
which has 37 mpsin total. If Mr Khama gets
supporters to ditch the ruling party, he
could be kingmaker in a coalition.
That worries some Batswana. As presi-
dent, Mr Khama built up the country’s spy
agencies and surrounded himself with se-
curocrats, who appointed allies to top jobs,
such as head of the main anti-corruption
body. Human-rights groups accuse the au-
thorities of intimidating journalists and
ngos. “The space for civil society has
shrunk,” says Alice Mogwe, a lawyer.
Mr Masisi says he was once a “bootlick-
er”, but is now his own man. So far, that
seems to mean making rash populist
pledges in order to shore up the bdp’s sup-
port. The repeal of the hunting ban has im-
pressed rural voters, but hurt tourism
bookings nationwide. A proposal to build
electric cars in Botswana is unrealistic.
The election campaign does not bode
well for Botswana’s reputation for sound
policy. That matters as the country tries to
reduce its dependence on diamonds,
which make up roughly the same share of
exports today (73%) as they did in 1992
(71%). Botswana still has enviable institu-
tions. But there is a sense among Batswana
that what made their country special is at
risk. “Botswana’s exceptionalism?” pon-
ders David Sebudubudu of the University
of Botswana. “That’s history now.” 7SANKUYO
Rare turbulence in one of Africa’s most successful statesBotswanaA diamond in the rough
Khama, chameleon