Scientific American - 09.2019

(Darren Dugan) #1
58 Scientific American, September 2019 Graphic by Jen Christiansen

SOURCES: THE WISDOM AND/OR MADNESS OF CROWDS, BY NICKY CASE


https://ncase.me/crowds;


THE MISINFORMATION AGE: HOW FALSE BELIEFS SPREAD,

BY CAILIN O’CONNOR AND JAMES OWEN WEATHERALL. YALE UNIVERSITY PRESS, 2019

Each circular or square node is a person who
ŸåŸ ́Œùy ́`ymUĂyÿŸmy ́`yÈàyåy ́ïymUĂ¹ï›yàåÎ
D`››DåDUy ̈Ÿy†DU¹ùïĀ›yï›yàaction A (blue)
or action B (orangeËŸåUyïïyàÎ5›yŸàUy ̈Ÿy†
`D ́åïày ́‘ï›y ́jĀyD§y ́D ́më¹àŒŸÈ¹ÿyàyj
Då囹Ā ́›yàyUĂ`›D ́‘Ÿ ́‘`¹ ̈¹àåÎ

5›yåïày ́‘†ï›y`¹ ̈¹ààyÈàyåy ́ïåï›y
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D` ́ιàyāD®È ̈yjD ́Då埑 ́®y ́﹆é‹Í
®yD ́åï›Dïï›yŸ ́mŸÿŸmùD ̈ ́§åï›Dïï›yàyŸå
Dé‹Í`›D ́`yï›Dïaction BŸåUyïïyàï›D ́
action AΆï›yÿD ̈ùyŸå‘àyDïyàï›D ́‹ĈÍjï›y ́
ï›yŸ ́mŸÿŸmùD ̈Èyà†¹à®åaction BÎ5›y ́jĀyùåy

DĂyåÝåàù ̈y€Ā›Ÿ`›Èà¹UDUŸ ̈ŸïĂï›y¹àĂïy ̈ ̈åùå
Ÿåï›yàD ́D ̈ĀDĂï¹`›D ́‘yUy ̈Ÿy†åŸ ́ ̈Ÿ‘›ï¹†
yÿŸmy ́`y€ï¹ùÈmDïyï›yŸ ́mŸÿŸmùD ̈Ýå`àymy ́`y
Ÿ ́ ̈Ÿ‘›ï¹†åàyåù ̈ïD ́mï›y ́ùÈmDïyD ̈ ̈
`¹ ́ ́y` ́åŸ ́ï›yŸà ́yïĀ¹à§Î

3ÕùDày ́¹myåDàyŸ ́mŸÿŸmùD ̈åĀ›¹
ïyåïD` ́åD ́mùÈmDïyï›yŸàUy ̈Ÿy†å
D``¹àmŸ ́‘ ̈ĂÊyÿŸmy ́`yåyy§yàåË

Ÿà`ù ̈Dà ́¹myåàyÈàyåy ́ïŸ ́mŸÿŸmùD ̈å
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Uùïm¹ ́¹ïïyåïï›yD` ́åmŸày`ï ̈Ă
ʹUåyàÿyàåË

3ïDàåàyÈàyåy ́ïŸ ́mŸÿŸmùD ̈åĀ›¹m¹ ́¹ï
›¹ ̈mUy ̈Ÿy†å¹†ï›yŸà¹Ā ́UùïŸ ́åïyDm
†¹`ùå¹ ́Ÿ ́ïà¹mù`Ÿ ́‘åy ̈y`ïŸÿyàyåù ̈ïå
Ÿ ́ï¹ï›yåĂåïy®ÊÈà¹ÈD‘D ́mŸåïåË

ÀĈĈÍ
ĈÍ

5¹¹†yĀ`¹ ́ ́y` ́åi¹®È ̈yāŸmyD
(greenËåïDàïåĀŸï›D ́¹my
ʟ ́mŸÿŸmùD ̈ËD ́mm¹yå ́ÝïåÈàyDm†Dà

3ïDàïŸ ́‘ȹŸ ́ïi
¹®È ̈yāŸmyDåïDàïåĀŸï›D ́Ÿ ́mŸÿŸmùD ̈

myDåÈàyDmå
ĀŸï›Ÿ ́‘à¹ùÈÊU¹ ́mŸ ́‘Ë

myDåÈàyDmå
ï¹D ́¹ï›yà‘à¹ùÈÊUàŸm‘Ÿ ́‘Ë

5¹¹®D ́Ă`¹ ́ ́y` ́åi
myDm¹yå ́ÝïåÈàyDm

ùåïàŸ‘›ïi
myDåÈàyDmå

÷ĈÍ

ññÍ

‹ĈÍ

÷‹Í ŽĈÍ

êêÍ
5Ÿ®y®y 5Ÿ®y®y

How to Read the Network
Epistemology Framework Plots

Action A
is better

Action B
is better

‹ĈÍ

ÀĈĈÍ

ĈÍ

÷‹Í`›D ́`yï›Dï
D` ́
ŸåUyïïyà

é‹Í`›D ́`yï›Dï
D` ́
ŸåUyïïyà

How to Read the Contagion Plots
Each circular node is a person who is
Ÿ ́Œùy ́`ymUĂŸmyDåÈàyåy ́ïymUĂ¹ï›yàåÎ
D`› ̈Ÿ ́yàyÈàyåy ́ïåD`¹ ́ ́y` ́
UyïĀyy ́Ÿ ́mŸÿŸmùD ̈åÎ

5›y‘Dù‘yDïï›yï¹È¹†ï›y ́¹myåŸ ́mŸ`Dïyå
ï›yÈyà`y ́﹆ï›DïÈyàå¹ ́Ýå`¹ ́ ́y` ́å
Ā›¹›¹ ̈mDÈDàïŸ`ù ̈DàUy ̈Ÿy†Î ́ï›y
å`y ́DàŸ¹åUy ̈¹Ājï›yï›ày囹 ̈m†¹àD ́
Ÿ ́mŸÿŸmùD ̈ï¹ïD§y¹ ́ï›yUy ̈Ÿy†¹†ï›yŸà
́yŸ‘›U¹àåŸå÷‹ÍÊDï ̈yDåïÀ¹ù﹆ŽËÎ

ĈÍ

2 ‹Í^1 ĈĈ
Í

THE CONTAGION MODEL
Contagion models treat ideas or beliefs like viruses
that spread between individuals in a social network.
5›yàyDàymŸ‡yày ́ïĀDĂåï›Dïåڟ ́†y` ́Û`D ́
Ā¹à§Î ́å¹®y®¹my ̈åjyÿyàĂ¹ ́yĀŸ ̈ ̈UyŸ ́†y`ïym
UĂD ́Ÿ ́†y`ïym ́yŸ‘›U¹àÎ ́¹ï›yàåjŸmyDååÈàyDm
whenever some percentage of an individual’s
neighbors become infected. Here we illustrate
ï›yåyÚ`¹®È ̈yā`¹ ́ïD‘Ÿ¹ ́åÛĀŸï›yāD®È ̈yåĀ›yày
individuals take on a new belief if at least 25 percent
of their neighbors hold it. In these models, the
åïàù`ïùày¹†ï›y ́yïĀ¹à§D‡y`ï囹ĀŸmyDååÈàyDmÎ

How Network Science Maps


the Spread of  Misinformation


We use network science î ̧Uxîîxßø³lxßäîD³lš ̧ÿä ̧`žD§` ̧³³x`îž ̧³äž³‹øx³`xîšx
beliefs and behaviors of individuals in a social network—and especially how false beliefs
can spread from person to person. Here we look at two kinds of network models that
`DÇîøßxlž†xßx³îÿDāäž³ÿšž`šžlxDä ̧ßUx§žx…ääÇßxDlÍD`š³ ̧lxž³îšxäx­ ̧lx§äßxÇßx-
sents an individual. Each edge, or connection between the nodes, represents a social tie.

NETWORK EPISTEMOLOGY
FRAMEWORK
Network epistemology models represent
situations in which people form beliefs by
gathering and sharing evidence. This sort
ofmodel applies to many cases in science.
Beliefs do not simply spread from individual
toindividual. Instead, each individual has some
degree of certainty about an idea. This prompts
them to gather evidence in support of it, and
that evidence changes their beliefs. Each
individual shares their evidence with network
́yŸ‘›U¹àåjĀ›Ÿ`›D ̈幟 ́Œùy ́`yåï›yŸàUy ̈Ÿy†åÎ

BONDING AND BRIDGING:In less connected groups, ideas cannot reach all members. Sometimes too many
connections can also stop the spread of an idea. Some networks have tight-knit cliques, where even if an idea
åÈàyDmåĀŸï›Ÿ ́¹ ́y` ̈ŸÕùyjŸï`D ́UymŸˆ`ù ̈àŸïï¹åÈàyDmï¹¹ï›yà` ̈ŸÕùyåÎ
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