The Economist Continental Europe Edition – August 17, 2019

TheEconomistAugust 17th 2019 69

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20

40

60

80

100

2008 10 12 14 16 18

0

20

40

60

80

100

1919 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 10 18 2008 10^12141618

0

600

1,200

1,800

2,400

3,000

GDPper

person,$*

0

20

40

60

80

100

Deathsduetoconflict

inAfghanistan,’000

Afghan

civilwar

ThirdAnglo-

Afghanwar

Soviet-

Afghanwar

Saurrevolutionestablishes

communistregime

1973 coupoverthrows

Afghanmonarchy

Afghan

civilwars

USwarin

Afghanistan

Acenturyaftergainingindependence,Afghanistanismoreviolentthanithasbeenfordecades

Th Tlib ’ i h d f h ld i h h h i

TimelineofAfghanistan’seconomicandmilitaryhistory Afghanssatisfiedwith

personalfreedoms,%

Afghansfeelingsafe

walkingaloneatnight,%

Sources:Gallup;MaddisonProject;PeaceResearchInstituteOslo;UppsalaConflictDataProgram;WorldBank *2011prices,atpurchasing-powerparity

TheTaliban’sinsurgencyhasspreadfromstrongholdsin the southtothe entirecountry

Deathsduetoconflict

By location

2001-02

1999-

2000 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08

2009-10 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18

KabulKabul

Hindu

Kush

Mts

Hindu

Kush

Mts

Kandaha

defacto

Talibancapital

Kabu

Kandahar

defacto

Talibancapital

Kabu

Helmand

province

Helmand

province

USinvasionbegins

USdraw-downbegins

BeforetheUS

invasion,theTaliban

foughtagainsta

northerncoalition

AftertheUS

invasion,the

Talibanquickly

retreated

TheUSpassed

securityoperations

toNATOinstages

from 2003 to 2006

Talibaninsurgents

basedinthesouth

andinPakistan

grewinstrength

AstheTaliban

regainedstrength,

theytookthewar

intothenorth

UStroopsmadea

majorpushinto

Helmandprovince

in 2009

In 2015 theTaliban

capturedand

brieflyheldKunduz

PA

KI

ST

AN

2018 sawthemost

areasaffectedand

peoplekilledsince

theconflictbegan

ToraTo r aBoraB o r a

al-Qaeda

hideout

Kandahar

Kabul

Kandahar

Kabul

KabulKabul

Kunduz

Deathsreported None 25 100200 400 800

O

n august 19thAfghans will take to the

streets to mark 100 years of indepen-

dence from Britain. They have more to

protest about than to celebrate: their coun-

try has not known peace for 40 years.

Afghanistan’s modern woes began in

earnest in 1979, when the Soviet Union in-

vaded to prop up a communist regime. In

response, America funded mujahideenre-

bels, escalating a bloody proxy war. The So-

viet withdrawal in 1989 was followed by in-

fighting among warlords, and then by the

brutal rule of the Taliban, an Islamist group

that took over much of the country.

After al-Qaeda plotted the September

11th, 2001 attacks from Afghan camps, the

United States and its allies invaded. nato-

led troops have been stationed there since

2003. American negotiators and the Tali-
      ban have recently held talks about a peace
      deal, but the Afghan government has yet to
      participate formally (see Asia section).
      Westerners often assume that the war
      was fiercest in 2010, when the annual death
      toll for natoforces peaked at 710. The co-
      alition has pulled back since then, with the
      number of American troops falling from
      100,000 to 14,000. As a result, just 94 nato
      soldiers have died since the start of 2015.
      Donald Trump wants a full exit by 2020.
      This hardly reflects a mission accom-
      plished. Violence between Afghans has
      soared during nato’s retreat. In 2018 some
      25,000 people were killed in the conflict—
      the most since at least the early 1990s, the
      earliest period in which detailed records
      based on contemporaneous reports are
      available. (Prior figures are estimated by
      historians, and are less reliable.) This toll is

greater than the 20,000 or so who died last

year in Syria, where violence has declined.

Facing less pressure from nato, the Ta-

liban are overwhelming the Afghan army,

spreading to cities such as Kunduz from

their stronghold in the south. A majority of

Afghans now live in areas controlled or

contested by the Taliban, according to the

Long War Journal, a website that tracks the

conflict. Gallup, which has polled Afghans

since 2008, finds that record numbers fear

for their liberty and safety.

The survivors are destitute. Historical

economic records are patchy, but Bill Byrd

of the United States Institute of Peace, a

think-tank, describes a “lost quarter-cen-

tury of development” after the Soviet inva-

sion. The Maddison Project, which makes

back-dated gdpestimates, suggests a deep

recession in the 1990s. A recovery since

2001, aided by foreign spending, has sput-

tered. Afghanistan is the only country in

Asia or the Middle East where people are

still poorer than those alive in 1950 were. 7

Violence has not been this widespread

since the Soviet withdrawal

Prisoners of war

Graphic detailAfghanistan