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Page 5

African Development

FT SPECIAL REPORT

WednesdayAugust 28 2019 http://www.ft.com/reports | @ftreports

Inside

Shift from aid to trade

may boost self-reliance

Global switch in

emphasis to business

and investment

Page 2

Foreign investment

Japan renews its

investment push in

effort to catch rivals

Page 2

Light collaboration

Governments, private

sector and multilaterals

seek to electrify Africa

Page 3

Trade deal signed off

Proponents say AfCFTA

will transform business

in bloc of nations with

combined GDP of $3tn

Page 4

J

ournalists, as Hans Rosling, the

late Swedish health expert and

statistician,noted, are better at

capturing fast-moving catas-

trophes than slow-moving

improvements. An Ebola outbreak

makes headlines. The slow success of a

vaccination campaigndoes not.

Partly as a result, public perception of

countries or regions often lags reality. So

it was with China in the early 2000s

when many continued to think of the

country as poor and backwards. So it is

with Africa today.

It is impossible to generalise about the

54 countries that make up the vast con-

tinent. Some nations, such as Somalia,

Central African Republic and Burundi,

are locked in seemingly never-ending

civil strife. Meanwhile, Nigeria, South

Africa and Angola — the should-be

motors of the continent — have been

stuck in economic slow motion. Yet,

notwithstanding widespread poverty

and huge social problems, Africa in gen-

eral is doing better than manyimagine.

Much changed for the continent

about the turn of the century when at

least two events helped galvanise a

period of rapid growth and — when the

resulting windfalls were not squandered

— development. First wasthe Heavily

Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initia-

tive, whereby $100bn of multilateral,

bilateral and commercial debt was for-

given in 30 African countries. The move

gave them the chance to escape from the

burden of endless debt servicing.

Second was the entry of China into

Africa. In 2000, trade between China

and Africa was about $10bn, according

to the China Africa Research Initiative

(Cari) at Johns Hopkins School of

Advanced International Studies in

Washington. By 2017, that had risento

$148bn, and even that was down from

the 2015 peak of more than $200bn.

Over the same period to 2017, China’s

government, development banks and

contractors extended $143bn of loansto

African governments and state-owned

enterprises, according to Cari. The

result was a flurry of construction of

roads, ports and airports in a continent

crying out for betterinfrastructure.

Although there have been concerns

thatcountries such as Angola and Zam-

bia may be stokinganother debt crisis

andthat China is acting like a neocolo-

nial power, many Africans arguethat

China’s arrivalhas been of net benefit to

the continent. “There are many posi-

tives to the Africa-China relationship,”

says Tito Mboweni, finance minister of

South Africa, who attributes some of the

negative attitude to western propa-

ganda. “They don’t want Africans to do

business with the Chinese because

there’s this notion that somehow Africa

is their backyard.”

In China’s wake have come others,

including Turkey, India, Brazil and the

Gulf states, all of which have imagined a

commercial and strategic opportunity

in Africa that their western counter-

parts have been slower to spot.

In population terms, Africa is the con-

tinent that will seethe most growth over

the next decades. By 2050, its popula-

tion is forecast to more than double to

2bn. By the end of the century it is likely

to double again, at which time more

than one in three people on earth will be

African. Although that will pose vast

Continued on page 3

Africa poised

‘to play a

major role in

the world’

Despite an array of problems, the vast continent is

faring better than many think, writesDavid Pilling

Open for business: Makola market in Ghana’s capital Accra—Alamy

Inpopulation terms, Africa

is the continent that will

seethe most growth

over the next decades

              

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