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Latestresearch suggests that companies can do better
in preparing for the futurewhen breaking both
establishedroutines of futureforecasting and
embarking on seeminglycounterintuitiveprocedures.
When and howtobreakawayfromforecastingroutines.Steffen Keck
Markus ReitzigWhen It Takes
Senior Leadership
To Help Forecast
TheFuture
S
enior leaders applyasimple
rule when deciding whether
to delegateaproblem to their
management or to deal with it
themselves.Speaking plainly,
thereare twocategories: challenges
that require persuadingcorporate
staff toanew courseof action and
necessitate translating visionsto
routines are reserved for senior
leaders. When it comes to divid-
ing and integrating work using es-
tablished procedures, on the other
hand, you are dealing with execu-
tive issues, no matter how techno-
logically complex they may be –
this is the domain of mid- and
lower level managers. Latest re-
search suggests that companies
can do better in preparing for the
future when breaking with estab-
lished routines of future forecast-
ing and embarking on seemingly
counterintuitive procedures –
something that is requiring lead-
ership’s full engagement in con-
vincing and enabling their staff to
come along.
Forecasting trends–e.g. per-
taining to the global competitive
environment or customer behav-
ior–isatechnologically complexset of tasks. Many of these can,
however, be addressed by simply
following standard routines–pre-
defined exchange patterns among
selected employees.
To assess likelydevelopments
in theirglobal competitive envi-
ronments, for example, firms will
usually bring together senior
managersand externalcon-
sultants from think tanks on a
(semi-)annual basis and pool ex-
pert knowledge from central HR,
finance, and technology.Agood
example for this are the regular
round-table workshops by RoyalDutch Shell.Here,aselected
group of highly experienced sen-
ior industry experts comes to-
gether to developscenariosfor
thefuture of the oil industry.
Similarly, when predicting
trends in selected geographical
markets or demographic segments
firms will also rely on expert
teams, albeit different ones.
Here, organizations will
typically draw on the
expertise of decen-
tralized and local
sales teams, i.e.
the people who
are there in the
thick of it.
What both of
the above scenar-
ios also have in
common is that ex-
changes will be per-
sonal among the selected in-
dividuals, and discussions will be
transparent to fosteragood de-
bate.
Following this standard ap-
proach of having pre-selected in-
dividuals (chosen by their posi-
tion in the corporate hierarchy)
discuss the future with one an-
other is what managers can and
should do whenever it makes
sense. “Don’t changeawinning
formula” is how the saying goes,
after all.B
reaking away from this es-
tablished procedure, how-
ever, requires leadership in-tervention. And break away com-
panies should in some instances –
as recent research shows.
Over the past years, scholars in
organizational decision-making
have made significant advances
in better understanding what it
takes for groups of people to arrive
at the best possiblejudgments of
futureevents. Arguably the
most provocativenotion
in this area comes from
astream of inquiry fo-
cusingonthe “wis-
dom of the crowd”
or WOC. Inanut-
shell, related schol-
arship has shown
that large groups of
random individuals
will outperform even
expertsinpredicting
the future under two con-
ditions.
First, the individuals simply
pool (i.e. average) their judgments.
Second, they make their forecasts
independently of one another (i.e.
do not interact).
What seems likeamathematical
stage magician’s trick without
practical relevance at first has
turned into aviable prediction
technique for some companies
over the recent past. Takeafilm
production company such as Para-
mount: they rely on forecasts gen-
erated by askingalarge number of
individuals to make bets on the
box-office success of movies and
then pooling those judgments, re-L2|AUGUST2 019