M32 BARRON’S September 2, 2019
Market SentimentLAST –0.05
Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
-0.9
-0.6
-0.3
0
0.3
0.6
A S O N D J F M A M J JAEuphoria
Panic
The panic/euphoria model is a gauge of investor sentiment. It identifies "Panic" and "Euphoria" levels which are statistically driven buy and
sell signals for the broader market. Historically, a reading below panic supports a better than 95% likelihood that stock prices will be
higher one year later, while euphoria levels generate a better than 80% probability of stock prices being lower one year later.Source: Citigroup Investment Research - US Equity Strategy
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Q4
16Q1
17Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
18Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
19Q2 Q3THREE YEAR TED SPREAD
Friday's Close 0.19TED Spread = 3-mth LIBOR – 3-mth T-bill rateTOPSAVINGSDEPOSITYIELDS
MoneyMarketAccount^1
Telephone Min. Recent Effect.
Institution Location No. Deposit %Rate %Yield
My Savings Direct Ossining,NY (877)752-1919 1 2.37 (CD) 2.40
FNBO Direct Omaha,NE (877)370-3707 1 2.08 (CM) 2.10
iGobanking.com Flushing,NY (888)432-5890 25000 2.08 (CD) 2.10
Radius Bank Boston,MA (800)242-0272 25000 2.03 (CM) 2.05
First Internet Bank Indianapolis,IN (888)873-3424 100 2.00 (CM) 2.02
Six-MonthCDs^2
Telephone Min. Recent Effect.
Institution Location No. Deposit %Rate %Yield
TIAA Bank Jackson,FL (888)882-3837 5000 2.18 (CD) 2.20
Popular Direct New York,NY (800)274-5696 10000 2.18 (CD) 2.20
Emigrant Direct New York,NY (800)836-1997 1000 2.13 (CD) 2.15
Dollar Savings Direct Ossining,NY (866)395-8693 1000 2.13 (CD) 2.15
My Savings Direct Ossining,NY (877)752-1919 1000 2.13 (CD) 2.15
(^1) Includingpassbook,statementsavings,andbank-offeredliquidassetaccounts.
(^2) Six-month CD yields assume reinvestment of principal and interest at the same rate for an
additionalsixmonths.
Rates are the highest yields on six types of accounts offered by federally-insured banks and
savingsassociationsnationwide.
One-YearCDs
Telephone Min. Recent Effect.
Institution Location No. Deposit %Rate %Yield
Capital One 360 Wilmingtn,DE (877)469-0232 1 2.37 (CM) 2.40
Ally Bank Philadelphia,PA (877)247-2559 1 2.37 (CD) 2.40
Barclays Bank Wilmingtn,DE (888)710-8756 1 2.37 (CD) 2.40
Discover Bank Greenwood,DE (800)347-7000 2500 2.37 (CD) 2.40
TIAA Bank Jackson,FL (888)882-3837 5000 2.33 (CD) 2.36
2½-YearCDs
Telephone Min. Recent Effect.
Institution Location No. Deposit %Rate %Yield
Discover Bank Greenwood,DE (800)347-7000 2500 2.42 (CD) 2.45
TIAA Bank Jackson,FL (888)882-3837 5000 2.37 (CD) 2.40
Capital One 360 Wilmingtn,DE (877)469-0232 1 2.18 (CM) 2.20
Middlesex Savings Bk Middlesex,MA (877)463-6287 250 2.08 (MA) 2.10
Community Commerce BkLos Angeles,CA (323)268-6100 10000 2.00 (CM) 2.02
YieldsarebasedonthestatedrateandcompoundingmethodineffectFridayandaresubject
tochange.Phonetoverifybeforeinvestingorsendingmoney.
(CC)Compoundedcontinuously;(SA)compoundedsemiannually;(CD)compoundeddaily;
(CA) compounded annually; (CM) compounded monthly; (SI) simple interest; (CQ) com-
poundedquarterly
Five-YearCDs
Telephone Min. Recent Effect.
Institution Location No. Deposit %Rate %Yield
Dollar Savings Direct Ossining,NY (866)395-8693 1000 2.76 (CD) 2.80
FVCbank Washingtn,DC (888)922-6537 1000 2.66 (CM) 2.70
Ally Bank Philadelphia,PA (877)247-2559 1 2.57 (CD) 2.60
Barclays Bank Wilmingtn,DE (888)710-8756 1 2.57 (CD) 2.60
TIAA Bank Jackson,FL (888)882-3837 5000 2.49 (CD) 2.52
90-DayJumboCDs
Telephone Min. Recent Effect.
Institution Location No. Deposit %Rate %Yield
TIAA Bank Jackson,FL (888)882-3837 5000 2.01 (CD) 2.03
First Internet Bank Indianapolis,IN (888)873-3424 1000 1.94 (CM) 1.96
Popular Direct New York,NY (800)274-5696 10000 1.88 (CD) 1.90
Bank OZK New York,NY (212)218-8383 1000 1.49 (CM) 1.50
Ameriprise Ntl Trust Bk Minneapolis,MN (888)356-1006 100000 1.35 (CA) 1.35
Source:(c)2019,InformaResearchServices,30501AgouraRoad,2ndFloor,AgouraHills,CA
91301 818-880-8877. All rights reserved. May not be reproduced or retransmitted in any
formwithoutexpresswrittenconsentofInformaResearchServices.
YEARLYHIGH/LOWSNASDAQINDEX
TheyearlyNasdaqCompositeIndex;withahigh/low
rangebasedonthedailyclose.
Year High Date Low Date
2019 8330.21 July 26 6463.50 Jan. 03
2018 8109.69 Aug. 29 6192.92 Dec. 24
2017 6994.76 Dec. 18 5429.08 Jan. 03
2016 5487.44 Dec. 27 4266.84 Feb. 11
2015 5218.86 July 20 4506.49 Aug. 25
2014 4806.91 Dec 29 3996.96 Feb. 03
2013 4176.59 Dec 31 3091.81 Jan. 08
2012 3183.95 Sept 14 2648.36 Jan. 04
2011 2873.54 Apr 29 2335.83 Oct. 03
2010 2671.48 Dec 22 2091.79 July 02
2009 2291.28 Dec 30 1268.64 Mar. 09
2008 2609.63 Jan 02 1316.12 Nov 20
2007 2859.12 Oct 31 2340.68 Mar. 05
2006 2465.98 Nov 22 2020.39 July 21
2005 2273.37 Dec 02 1904.18 Apr 28
2004 2178.34 Dec. 30 1752.49 Aug. 12
2003 2009.88 Dec. 30 1271.47 Mar. 11
2002 2059.38 Jan. 04 1114.11 Oct. 09
2001 2859.15 Jan. 24 1423.19 Sept. 21
2000 5048.62 Mar. 10 2332.78 Dec. 20
1999 4069.31 Dec. 31 2248.91 Feb. 17
1998 2192.69 Dec. 31 1419.12 Oct. 08
1997 1748.78 Oct. 09 1194.16 Apr. 22
1996 1328.95 Dec. 10 977.79 Sept. 16
AMERICANDEBTANDDEFICITS
Latest Preceding YearAgoYearoverYear
Report Report Report %Chg
FederalBudgetDeficit(bil.$)-a ......................................... 987FY'20 984FY'19 833FY'18 ....
BudgetSurplus/Deficit(bil.$)-b,July ............................... –119.70 –8.48 –76.87 55.72
TradeDeficit(bil.$,sa)-c,June ........................................... –55.15 r-55.34 –47.43 16.28
TreasuryGrossPublicDebt.(bil.$)-d ............................... 22,456.8 22,414.6 21,439.4 4.75
TreasuryStatutoryDebtLimit(bil.$)-d ............................. 21,987.7 .... ....
ConsumerInstallmentDebt(bil.$)-e,June ..................... 4,102.2 r4,087.6 3,901.4 5.15
Sources:a-OfficeofManagementandBudget,b-MonthlyTreasuryStatement,c-MonthlyCommerceDept.Report,d-DailyTreasury
Statement,e-MonthlyFederalReserveRelease.StatutorydebtlimittemporarilysuspendedthroughJuly31,2021.
Weekly Closed-End Funds
TRACKING CLOSED - END FUNDS
The Herzfeld Closed-End Average measures 15 equally-weighted closed-end funds based in the U.S. that invest principally in
American equities. The net assest value is a weighted average of the funds' NAVs. Source: Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors Inc., Miami.
305-271-1900/www.herzfeld.com
45800
41850
37900
33950
30000
26050
22100
4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19
*Herzfeld
Closed-End
Average
Dow Industrials
50000
47250
44500
41750
39000
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
Net Asset Value
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19
% Disc/Prem From Net Asset Value
Whipsawed: With the trade war between the U.S. and China winding up and down
by the minute, the Herzfeld Average and the Dow ranged wildly over the week
ended Thursday—returning -0.2% and 0.4%, respectively.
Data provided by
YEARLYHIGH/LOWSS&P500INDEX
TheyearlyS&P500Index;withahigh/lowrangebased
onthedailyclose.
Year High Date Low Date
2019 3025.86 July 26 2447.89 Jan. 03
2018 2930.75 Sept. 20 2351.10 Dec. 24
2017 2690.16 Dec. 18 2257.83 Jan. 03
2016 2271.72 Dec. 13 1829.08 Feb. 11
2015 2130.82 May 21 1867.61 Aug. 25
2014 2090.57 Dec. 29 1741.89 Feb. 03
2013 1848.36 Dec. 31 1457.15 Jan. 08
2012 1465.77 Sept. 14 1277.06 Jan. 03
2011 1363.61 Apr. 29 1099.23 Oct. 03
2010 1259.78 Dec. 29 1022.58 July 02
2009 1127.78 Dec. 28 676.53 Mar. 09
2008 1447.16 Jan. 02 752.44 Nov. 20
2007 1565.15 Oct. 09 1374.12 Mar. 05
2006 1427.09 Dec. 15 1223.69 June 13
2005 1272.74 Dec. 14 1137.50 Apr. 20
2004 1213.55 Dec. 30 1063.23 Aug. 12
2003 1111.92 Dec. 31 800.73 Mar. 11
2002 1172.51 Jan. 04 776.76 Oct. 09
2001 1373.73 Jan. 30 965.80 Sept. 21
2000 1527.46 Mar. 24 1264.74 Dec. 20
1999 1469.25 Dec. 31 1212.19 Jan. 14
1998 1241.81 Dec. 29 927.69 Jan. 09
1997 983.79 Dec. 05 737.01 Jan. 02
1996 757.03 Nov. 25 598.48 Jan. 10
1995 621.69 Dec. 13 459.11 Jan. 03
1994 482.00 Feb. 02 438.92 Apr. 04
1993 470.94 Dec. 28 433.54 Apr. 26
NOTICE TO READERS:
Duetotechnicaldifficultiesinvolvingadata
vendor,wewereunabletopublishthisweek’s
Closed-EndFundstables.Thetableswillreturn
nextweek.