FRANFRANFRANFRANFRARAFRAFFRAFFRAFRANFRAFRAFRAFRAFFANAAANZ JOZ JOLALANDLANDLANDLALANDLANDLANDLANDLANDLANDLANDLALALALANDLLALLANDLANDLALAZZ JJOZJZJJOZ JOZJOZ JZ JOZ JOJZ JOZ JOZ JZ JOZ JOZ JOZ JOZ SEFSEFSEFFSEFSEFSEFFSEFSEFSSEFSEFSEFFFFFFF
(RUSSRUSS((RUSS(RUSS(RUSS(RUS(RUSS(RUSS((RUSS(RUSRUSS(RUSS(RUSS((RUSS( IA)IA)A)IA)A)IA)A))A)A)A)A)A)A)AA) ))North PoleARCTIC(^) CIRCLE
A ROUTE
PASSA
GE
Norwegian Sea
Baffin
Bay
Kara
Sea
Barents
Sea
A T
L
AN
T
IC
O
CE
A
N
RUSSIA
H
BAFFIN
ISLAND
SVALBARD(NORWAY)
JAN MAYEN(NORWAY)
FRANZ JOSEFLAND
(RUSSIA)
GREENLAND
(DENMARK)
ICELAND
FINLAND
SWEDEN
NORWAY
SeptemberMedian
ice extent,
1981-2010
Remainingsummer
2036 sea ice
Estimated oil
and gas basins
Arctic ice, average
September extent
in millions of square miles
1979
2.72
2018
1.82
(^2050) proj.
0.23
(^2036) proj.
0.28
Ice-free threshold
A DOWNWARD
TREND
Sea ice extent fluctuates
naturally, but the trend is
unmistakable: The Arctic
Ocean will be ice free in
summer by mid-century.
By mid-century if not sooner, Arctic
summers are expected to be hot enough
to melt most of the sea ice that forms in
winter. Here’s what that looks like, based
on a model suggesting it will first happen
in 2036: The ocean is navigable except
for a remnant of ice along the northern
Canadian islands and Greenland. Much of
the surrounding land is green. One of the
world’s least developed regions now offers
new fishing grounds and better access
to huge deposits of gas, oil, and minerals.
2036: LAST
SUMMER ICE
Russia’s ‘Gulf of Mexico’
Open waters mean easier access to the Barents and Kara
Seas. Most of Russia’s Arctic
offshore oil (65 percent) and
gas (91 percent) resources are expected to be found here.
Natural wealth Much of the Arctic’s riches
could become accessible;
the region is believed to hold
one-eighth of the world’s undiscovered oil and a third
of all gas resources.
JASON TREAT AND RYAN WILLIAMS, NGM STAFFART: STEPHEN TYSON. SOURCES: NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER;
ALEXANDRA JAHN, UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO BOULDER; COMMUNITY EARTH SYSTEM MODEL; SCOTT GOETZ AND LOGAN BERNER, NORTHERN ARIZONA
UNIVERSITY; NATHAN LENSSEN, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY; IHS MARKIT; ARILD MOE, FRIDTJOF NANSEN INSTITUTE
Greenland’s meltdownGreenland will still have ice,
but it’s already melting fast
and contributing to rising
seas. As of 2018 the rate of melting had increased sixfold
since the 1980s.