USA Today - 09.08.2019

(Darren Dugan) #1
“A strong field organization seems to
have given Warren a boost. On the
other hand, the fact that six in 10
Democrats are able to offer an opinion
of Steyer shows that an unlimited
advertising budget can come in
handy, too.”
Patrick Murray
Monmouth pollster

Former Vice President Joe Biden
leads the unwieldy field of Democratic
presidential hopefuls among likely
Democratic Iowa caucusgoers, but Sen.
Elizabeth Warren is starting to catch up
with the front-runner, according to a
Monmouth University Poll published
Thursday.
Twenty-eight percent of likely
caucusgoers surveyed in the poll said
they backed Biden, while 19% said they
support Warren. Biden registered 1 per-
centage point higher in Monmouth’s
new survey compared with when they
last polled Iowa voters in April, while
Warren saw her support in the Hawkeye
State climb sharply from the 7% she
polled at four months ago.
As Warren starts to make headway
with voters in Iowa, fellow progressive
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and former
Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas, are seeing
their support erode. Sanders saw his
support plummet from 16% in April to
9%, while O’Rourke watched his tumble
from 6% to less than 1%.
Sanders ranked second in the April
Monmouth poll, but is now in fourth
place, behind Sen. Kamala Harris at 11%
and just ahead of South Bend, Indiana,
Mayor Pete Buttigieg who registered
support from 8% of likely Iowa Demo-
cratic caucus participants.
The new poll comes as most of the
Democratic field descends on Iowa in
the coming days to take part in the Des
Moines Register Iowa State Fair Soap-
box, the Iowa Democratic Wing Ding
and a slew of other high-profile cam-
paign events in the first-in-the-nation
caucus state.
Warren has seen her favorability
climb in Iowa (76% favorable and 14%
unfavorable in the new poll compared
with 67% favorable and 20% unfavor-
able in April), while Biden has seen a bit
of slippage (73% favorable and 19% un-
favorable in the new poll compared with
78% favorable and 14% unfavorable in
April.) Monmouth’s April poll came
about two weeks before Biden officially
entered the race.


Sanders and O’Rourke saw the larg-
est drops in favorability ratings. Opi-
nion of Sanders stands at 58% favorable
and 33% unfavorable, which is a decline
from his 67%-26% rating four months
ago. O’Rourke now has a 43% favorable
and 24% unfavorable rating in Iowa,
compared with his 60%-13% rating in
April.
The most recent entrant in the race,
former hedge fund manager and envi-
ronmental activist Tom Steyer, had
3% support and a 34% favorable and
25% unfavorable rating. Steyer, who
has said he will spend $100 million of
his own fortune on the race, entered
the crowded field of Democratic con-
tenders in July.
“A strong field organization seems to
have given Warren a boost,” said Mon-
mouth pollster Patrick Murray. “On the
other hand, the fact that six in 10 Demo-
crats are able to offer an opinion of
Steyer shows that an unlimited adver-
tising budget can come in handy, too.”
Likely Democratic caucusgoers have
a dour outlook about much of the field’s
chances against President Donald
Trump in November 2020, according to
the poll.
Nearly two-thirds said that most of
the candidates could not beat Trump;
30% say that only one or two of the
Democratic candidates have the ability
to beat him, while 35% said more than
two but less than half are up to the
challenge. Seventeen percent say that
about half the current field could beat
Trump, and 15% say that most or all of
the 24 candidates could handle the in-
cumbent.

ELECTION 2020


Biden, Warren lead new Iowa poll


Aamer Madhani
USA TODAY


Former Vice President Joe Biden
CHARLIE NEIBERGALL/AP

Biden leads, Warren
climbs in Iowa

SOURCE Monmouth University telephone poll
of 401 Iowans who are likely to attend the
Democratic presidential caucuses in February.
Margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

Former vice president Joe Biden
maintains his lead in Iowa, but
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is closing the
gap in a recent survey of likely
caucusgoers.

USA TODAY


Joe Biden 28%
Elizabeth Warren
Kamala Harris
Bernie Sanders
Pete Buttigieg
Amy Klobuchar
Tom Steyer
Kirsten Gillibrand
Andrew Yang
Cory Booker
Steve Bullock
John Delaney
Tulsi Gabbard
John Hickenlooper
Michael Bennet
Julian Castro
Jay Inslee
Beto O’Rourke
Marianne Williamson
Bill de Blasio
Wayne Messam
Seth Moulton
Tim Ryan
Joe Sestak

19%
11%
9%
8%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.
ETHAN MILLER/GETTY IMAGES

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