- The Observer
36 11.08.19 Focus
Just a fl utter?
Why this butterfl y
summer is so fragile
A kaleidoscope of painted
ladies, gatekeepers and
common blues have
enthralled us this summer.
But will the Big Butterfl y
Count, which ends today,
confi rm that sense of
optimism, asks Stephen MossNature
r.
Moss
The number of
common blues
in Britain
more than
doubled last
summer.
Photograph by
Mark Searle/PAthe Ashcroft survey was “of a piece”
with four other Scottish opinion
polls conducted earlier this year.
“It is further evidence that seem-
ingly the race has narrowed. The
fi gures refl ect exactly what voters
said they would do if Boris Johnson
became prime minister and if the
UK crashed out of Europe. One of
those things has happened, and the
other is coming into view.”
Another analyst, Michael Keating,
chair in Scottish politics at Aberdeen
university, said the country “may
be approaching a tipping point.
Certainly, the union is looking a lot
weaker than it was coming out of
the 2014 referendum”.
A
s with the Leave-
Remain balance across
the UK, demographics
may be a factor. Some
say older voters tend
to be more pro- union;
young people coming into the elec-
torate tend to be more open to inde-
pendence. And, in Scotland in 2014,
16-year-olds were permitted to vote.
Gillian Martin, the SNP’s MSP for
Aberdeenshire East, said she had
detected a shift in mood among
her constituents. “Everyone I know
knows someone who’s changed
their mind from No to Yes. Of
course, not everyone is champing at
the bit to have another referendum
- people are weary of the amount of
times they’ve been asked to go to the
ballot box in the past few years.
“And there’s still a nervous-
ness about independence. But
Aberdeenshire is a bellwether. If we
could get past 50% here, there would
be a landslide across Scotland.”
A no-deal Brexit would spark a
“chain reaction”, she said. “In cold
political terms, of course it would
have an effect [in increasing support
for independence]. But do I want
that to happen? No. I’m the person
who refers people to food banks and
deals with the fallout of economic
disaster.”
She insisted the SNP has never
been about “blood and soil national-
ism. We want self-government, self-
determination. We’re not interested
in Trumpian, build-the-wall nation-
alism. We want open-the-doors,
progressive internationalism. But
we want for Scotland all the powers
that other nations enjoy.”
In 2014, the No campaign was
boosted by Gordon Brown’s power-
ful interventions, making the case
for solidarity between nations. Five
years on, the former prime minis-
ter is still a forceful advocate of the
union, arguing in the pages of this
newspaper today that, “to prevent
the rise and rise of dysfunctional
nationalism the fi rst step is to stop
No Deal in its tracks”.
Brown recently warned that
Johnson could be the UK’s last prime
minister , saying “no matter what he
may say now, two decades of anti-
Scottish invective will come back to
haunt him”.
Brexit had “created a new dimen-
sion to the debate,” Brown told the
Observer last week. “Two forces are
coming together – Boris Johnson
being seen as hostile to Scottish
aspirations, and Scotland voting
against Brexit in the referendum. So
the future of the union has moved
centre stage, and it’s got to be taken
into account now in what decisions
governments make.”
The “descent into nationalism
across the UK is a worrying feature”,
he said. “But people have not heard
what the true consequences of inde-
pendence for Scotland actually are”.
The SNP was in favour of “a hard
independence as opposed to a soft
independence”, which would result
in a “decade of hyper-austerity”. And
the Conservatives only had “a neg-
ative message, a holding operation
for the union”.
He added: “I’ve always argued
you need to put the positive case for
Scotland staying in Britain, to lead
in Britain rather than leave Britain. I
will keep fi ghting, all the time I have,
for Britain to stay in the European
Union and for Britain to maintain its
connections with Europe.
“I will also fi ght for the idea of a
multinational state, which is what
Britain is. And I’m optimistic about
young people in this country, who
don’t see that you’ve got to make a
choice between being Scottish or
British, or between being British
and European. The idea that we’re
all islands separated off from each
other does not make sense. So I
won’t give up on these ideas.”
In Inverurie’s market square, most
of those willing to express a view
appeared to favour independence.
But they may not be representative.
Many who declined to discuss their
political leanings may be supporters
of the union. Danny Henderson said
he voted No in 2014 but now would
vote Yes “if they had the basic ques-
tions sorted”, including “money and
the currency question”, healthcare
provision and the armed forces.
Rory Pearce, a teacher originally
from Northern Ireland, declared
himself pro-Europe and pro-inde-
pendence. “I’m in favour of inde-
pendence for Northern Ireland too,
and I hope Scotland will be a step-
ping stone to that. “The break-up of
the UK is defi nitely more likely now.
Johnson is hellbent on no deal. So let
Scotland decide its own future.”Union peril:
Scotland
stands at
crossroads
Continued from page 35ON OTHER PAGESGordon Brown: Th e very idea of
a united kingdom is being torn
apart by toxic nationalism
Comment, page 41Will Hutton: We are seeing the
dying days of the rancid old order
Comment, page 46
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