26
BETFRED EBOR HANDICAP BETTING TRENDS
RACING AHEADISSUE 178Andy Newton looks at the key factors in the big race
Is it stoute’s
turn to win
again?
T
his being the August edition,
there’s a good chance some
of you will be reading this
with a cocktail in one hand,
while on a sun lounger on
your holibobs!
So, as we head into what’s meant to
be the hottest month of the year it’s
another that’s jam-packed of top Flat
action. The Glorious Goodwood Festi-
val finishes during the first week of the
month, then we’ve the popular four-
day York Ebor Meeting (21st – 24th) to
take in, and that’s where I’m heading
this month.
We’ve plenty of standout races over
the meeting - including the Nunthorpe
Stakes, Juddmonte International,
Great Voltigeur Stakes and the York-
shire Oaks, but the Ebor Handicap, run
on August 24th, has always been a
good contest for the trend-busters.
First run way back in 1843, the Ebor
Handicap is over a trip of 1m6f and is
currently the most valuable handicap
Flat race in Europe. Therefore, with a
lucrative prize on the table it’s no sur-
prise it attracts an ultra-competitive
field – but, don’t worry, as the key
trends should be able to help us
narrow down the runners.
So – what are the main stats to look
for?
Age Concern – We saw a 6-year-old
win the race in 2017 and a 7-year-old
land the prize in 2015, but the main
age trend got back on track last year
with the 5- year-old Muntahaa going
in. That win meant that 16 of the last 17
winners were aged 6 or younger, while
12 of the last 17 (71%) were aged 4 or 5
years-old, so it should pay to concen-
trate more on this age range.
Quick Draw – With the Ebor being
run over 1m6f then you may feel the
draw won’t play a big role. However,
this is certainly not the case. Having a
good early position and not being
forced to travel wide around the
home bend into the long York
straight has been a big advantage. A
massive 14 of the last 17 winners
came from a double-figure stall –
backed-up again in 2018 with Munta-
haa winning from stall 21. This will
hopefully allow us to rule out a mas-
sive 9 of the 20ish runners that are
likely to head to post. This draw trend
is further backed-up as we’ve seen
just two placed horses from stall one
in the last 17 years, and 12 months
ago the top four finishers all hailed
from a double-figure draw.
Trip Advisor – I’ve already men-
tioned the race is run over 1m6f, but
having winning form over a trip of at
least 1m4f+ is key, with 14 of the last 17
winners ticking this stat. Of course,
this trend will apply to most of the
runners, but is still something to be
aware of.
Weight Watchers – Being a handi-
cap race, then weight carried is
another factor to note. Yes, last year’s
winner won with 9st-9lbs, but a mas-
sive 16 of the last 17 winners carried9st-4lbs or less, so this should still be
your cut-off point. Plus, if you want to
take this trend a bit further then 12 of
those 17 recent winners won with
9st 1lbs or less on their backs – this
should help knock out a few at least.
Bookie v Punter – who has fared
best? Well, the answer to this is a quick
one. We’ve seen only one winning
favourite since 1999 – while with a
100/1 winner popping up in 2006.
Therefore, I think it’s safe to say this is
a contest the bookmakers look for-
ward to each season and have
dominated in recent years. Oh, if you
also like laying horses on the betting
exchanges then you might be interest-
ed to know that 9 of the last 17 market
leaders (53%) have NOT even made
the frame (top four finish) – this was
backed-up again in 2018 with the jolly
only managing twelfth.
Fitness First – Having had a recent
run seems to count for something too.
Runners that had three or more out-
ings that same season have done best.
10 of the last 17 fit the bill here, while 8
of the last 17 winners had previous
course experience at York – two more
trends that last year’s winner ticked.
Plus, with 9 of the last 17 (53%) win-
ners having run at either Goodwood or
Ascot last time out this is another form
line to see if your fancy fulfils.
Stable Diet - Finally, which are the
best yards to look for? Luca Cumani
used to have a good record in the race,
but he’s now retired. Trainer John