46
GEEGEEZ.CO.UK
RACING AHEADISSUE 178geegeez on ways to turn a profit on your hard-earned
search for
change to find
those winners
T
here’s an old saying that goes
like this: “If you keep doing
what you’ve been doing,
you’ll keep getting what
you’ve been getting.” And
there’s another that reads, “The defini-
tion of insanity is doing the same thing
again and again and expecting a differ-
ent result.”
Those hackneyed old saws can be
levelled at many a punter and we
should aim not to be one of them...
unless what we’re already doing is
reaping rewards!
When looking at a race, I want to
know two things: first, which horses are
best suited to the race conditions of
going, distance, class, course and field
size. And second, which ones are doing
something different today.
I’ll assume familiarity with the first
point there, and an ability to identify
which horses have the best relevant
form [I use Instant Expert for this, other
form tools are available!]
Instead we’ll focus on the latter ele-
ment: what’s different today?
Examples of differences include:- First time in a handicap
- Significantly up or down in trip
- Class move
- Trainer change
- Headgear on, off or switch
- Jockey change
- Distance or going change
That is by no means an exhaustive
list, but it’s a good starting point to
work with. Let’s consider one example
and why it might bring about improve-
ment.
All horses are required to ‘qualify’ for
handicaps. To do that, they must run a
few times in open company (i.e. against
horses of much broader ability) before
being initially assessed. For horses of
limited ability, the best chance to win a
race is in getting a workable handicap
mark. It’s a tactic used by all trainers.
First time in a handicap is particularly
interesting to me when accompanied
by one or more of a distance or class
move and/or a layoff of three to eight
weeks. A downward class move implies
easier competition, a change in trip
implies greater suitability (especially if
supported by a check of the horse’s
pedigree), and a short break might be a
hint that the horse has ‘had all the bolts
tightened’ since its last qualifying run.
In fact, simply backing all Flat turf
handicap debut runners since the start
of 2017, who had been off the track
between 21 and 60 days and were sent
off 9/1 or shorter would have broken
even at SP and shown a 100+ point
profit at Betfair Starting Price.
Focusing solely on those up a furlong
and a half or more in trip would have
won 23 of 71 bets for an SP profit of
21.57 points.
Geegeez Gold has daily reports for Hand-
icap 1st Run, Class Move, Trainer Change,
Distance Move, and many more angles.
Whether you use Gold or another form
tool, the message is clear: look out for
material changes as a route to profit.RA