ByYUHONGJUNS
ince theColdWarended,
the worldenteredacrucial
stage of transition from the
oldto new order.The transi-
tion wasmuch more time-consum-
ingandcomplex than previously
thought.
It isanunarguable factthat the
center of worldpower is shifting
towardthe Eastataquickened
pace.
The share ofdevelopedecono-
mies,representedbytheUnited
States,EuropeandJapan,inthe
globaleconomyhasdroppeddra-
matically, as resourceshortages,
labordeclines,shrinking markets,
sluggish growthandother issues
become more prominent.The
USonceaccountedfor half of the
world’s totaleconomy, but the pro-portion fell to less than one-fourth
in 2 0 18.
European integration,which
beganinthe195 0 s,sawsound
momentumafter theColdWar,
but waslater hamperedbyseveral
factors,suchas protectionism,
populismandanti-globalization
sentiment.TheTrans-PacificPart-
nership,basedupon the Europe-US
alliance,is now heavilydamaged.
The postwar internationalsys-
tem,builtandmanipula ytedb
theUSandEurope,is undergoing
enormouschanges,andthe eraof
worldaffairsbeingdeterminedby
theWest is gone.
Incontrast,thedeveloping
countries,in particularChina,are
demonstratingbright prospects for
economicgrowth,technological
innovationandsocialdevelopment.
Emerging markets havealargersaya multilt ateralplatforms.The
cooperationamong theAsia-Pacific
countries has seen soundprogress,
while the regionalandtrans-region-
alcooperation mechanismsare
being strengthened.
The world’s economicandstra-
tegiccenter is shifting towardthe
Asia-Pacificregion,andEastAsia
isbecoming the focus of major
countries’competition.Against this
backdrop,theUShasbeen target-
ingChina.Thecountrystartedand
escalatedthe tradewar withChina,
andextendedfrictions from trade
to science,technologyandculture.
If the world’s two largest econo-
mies engage inastrategicandhis-
toricrace,the world bmay ecome
divided.This might result in two
isolatedblocscoming intobeing.
In this scenario,unmanageable
changes will occur in internationalrelations,andthe overall stabilityof
relationsbetweencountries willbe
hampered.Inthislandscape,China,
in particular,will playavitalrole.
Through reformandopening-up,
andpromotingtheBeltandRoad
Initiative,Chinahas providedto
the internationalcommunitynew
philosophies suchasdevelopment,
security, cooperation,order,respon-
sibilityandcivilization.
Chinawillalso facechanged
internationalobligationsandduties
aswellas mounting external pres-
sureandchallenges.However,Chi-
na’s integration with the worldwill
stayoncourseandmake progress
indepth,scopeandintensity.
Humansocietyfaceschallenges
suchasanincreasing wealth gap,
infectiousdiseases,naturaldisas-
ters,cyberattacks,nuclear prolifera-
tion,environmentaldegradationanduncontrolledreproductive
technologiesthat poseathreatto
the verysurvivalofman.
The internationalcommunity
shouldmake properadjustments
andimprovements to thecurrent
legalsystems governing interna-
tional relationsas wellas interna-
tional organizationsandmultilat-
eralcooperation mechanisms.
The internationallandscapewill
become more volatile,uncertain
andunpredictable.Toface these
issues,we needtobe preparedstra-
tegically,materiallyandmentally.Theauthorisformervice-minister
oftheInternationalDepartment
oftheCommunistPartyofChina
CentralCommitteeandsenior
researcherwiththeTaiheInstitute.
Theviewsdonotnecessarily
representthoseofChinaDaily.Throughopening-upandBeltandRoad,Chinaprovidesmuchtotheinternationalcommunity
Integratlonwlthwormdwlmm stay oncourse
LIMIN/CHINADAILYByMEIXINYUO
nAug 1,thedayafter
the 12th roundof trade
talksconcludedona
“constructive” note
according toUSnegotiators,theUS
leader threatenedto levy 10 percent
additionalduties onanother $3 00
billion ofChinese goodsstarting
Sept 1,breaking the promise thatit
wouldnot impose further tariffs on
Chinese imports.
Notbeingcontent with that,
theWhite Housealso issueda
memora ndumto theUnitedStates
trade representativedemanding it
“useallavailable means to secure
changesat theWTOthat would
prevent self-declareddeveloping
countries fromavailing themselves
of flexibilities inWTOrules”.Worse,
it threatenedto take unilateral
measuresagainst suchcountries if
substantial progress was not made
a hett WorldTradeOrganization
within 90days.
Frombilateral to multilateral
forums,theUShasbeen using
everyplatform to put “maximum
pressure” onChinain the hope that
it wouldcave in.
Yet has itsapproach worked?
It is evident toall,especially
market players,that the increas-
inglydirtypressure tactics usedby
theUSh notave causedanyvisible
damage toChina’s realeconomy,
including industrial production.
Instead,theUSleader’sdecision toimposeadditionaltariffs on more
Chinese goodscausedWallStreet to
dive into the red.
Also,theUSis vulnerable
to suffering greaterdam-
age if there is turmoil
in the financialsector
since theUSeconomy
d ependsmore heavily
on it thanChina.
TheUSeconomy,
despite registering 12 0
months ofcontinuous
growth in June,faces
increasing threatof
recession.Couldany-
thing other thanwan-
ingconfidence in the
economyhave prompted
theUSFederalReserve
to sharplycut interest
rates?
More importantly,the
USshouldlearn some-
thing fromChina.From
beinganimpoverishedandback-
wardagriculturalcountryin the
past,Chinahasbecome the world’s
biggest manufacturerandexporter,
andsecond-largest economy.As
earlyas2 013 ,itaccountedfor one-
thirdof global equipment manu-
facturing —andits exports were
oneandahalf times that of theUS
a ndGermany, andthree times that
of Japanin2 0 17—inlessthan7 0
years.
Chinahasalso overcome numer-
ous setbacksandmajor external
shocks,anyof whichcouldhaveleft manyaneconomyteetering.
Indeed,Chinahas performedan
economicmiracle.
China’s industrialization started
inthe 1949-52 periodwhen it was
struggling to recover from the war
of liberationandlargelylagged
behindeven its neighbor India.Over
the past 70years,Chinahas not only
becomeaneconomicpowerhouse
butalsoamilitarypower. Despite
that,it has notbeen involvedin
anylarge-scale foreign warorfaced
internal strife,an dinsteadconcen-tratedon industrializing
thecountry.
From 195 0 to 1952,
China’s economicrecov-
erywas the fastestand
steadiest sinceWorld
WarIIcomparedwith
anyother majorcountry.
NewChinafaced
manytwistsandturns
in the first 30years in
rebuilding its economy.
Evenduring the 40years
of reformandopening-
up,it hassuccessfully
weatheredmanyapow-
erful storm including
four major external
crises:thedebtcrisis in
the early 1980 s,Western
sanctions from the late
1980 stotheearly 1990 s,
the 1997-98Asianfinan-
cialcrisis,andthe 2 008
globalfinancialcrisis.
Admittedly,theChinese econ-
omyhasbeen facinganew type
ofchallenge since the secondhalf
of 2 018 because of the tradewar
launchedagainst itbytheUS.Yet
the newchallengecannotbecom-
paredwith the past externalcrises.
Even in the 199 0 s,at the height of
Western sanctions,Chinawasable
toreverse the tradedeficit thathad
underminedits economyfor nearly
1 00years since the FirstSino-Japa-
neseWar (1894-95).
Now,Chinahastodeal with
the fifth major externalchallenge:theUS-instigatedtradewar.Not-
withstanding the saber-rattling of
someUSpoliticiansandtheUS
administration’sdesperateattempt
to prevent the rise ofChinese high-
techcompanies,which reminds
one of theColdWar,dothosetrying
to forceChinatoconcede ground
byapplying “maximum pressure”
reallyunderstandhowChinahas
weatheredpowerful storms in the
pastdecades?
Without economicresilienceand
expertise in the high-techsector,
Chinawouldnothavebeenable to
close the widegap with theUSin
national strength.Perhaps this is
whytheUShaslabeledChinaasa
majorcompetitor.
Thedomesticpolitical infighting
in theUS,unseen indecades,is
likelyto intensifyandcreateabig-
ger problem for theWhite House.
Bycontrast,the strengthened
centralizedleadership ofChinais
well-positionedtodealwithany
challenges with greater efficiency.
In this regard,theUShawks,who
have turnedablindeyetoChina’s
resilience,shouldlookatChina’s
historyandsee how it has over-
comechallenges,andstop resorting
to “maximum pressure” to fulfill
their narrow politicalgoals.Theauthorisaresearcheratthe
ChineseAcademyofInternational
TradeandEconomicCooperation.
Theviewsdonotnecessarily
representthoseofChinaDaily.Chinahasweatheredpowerfulstorms,andcentralizedleadershipaddstoitsadvantages
USshoumdheedthe messonsofhlstory
CHINA DAILY GLOBAL WEEKLY August 9-15, 2019 COMMENT 23