FlightCom – July 2019

FlightCom Magazine 6

move from right seat to left in a few years,
and ultimately move on before the salary
bill becomes too much akin to the legacy
carriers.
With this relatively high crew turnover,
comes associated crew hiring problems. A
statistic released by Ryanair crystallises the
concerns currently within the professional
training environment. Of those individuals
with a CPL or even ATP, and with a freshly
minted type rating, only 35% of applicants
make it through the interview and screening
process. I must emphasise that this is after
the ‘filter’ of affordability and ‘competency’
through ploughing through our antiquated
hour-based system.
Clearly the competency requirements
have evolved, and the system has not.
Thus, we move on to Competency Based
Training, as opposed to ticking those hour-
based boxes until a licence (as opposed to
competence) is achieved. The concept of
Evidence Based Training has been well
documented since 2006 to address exactly
this.
Any training program, aviation or
otherwise, has its success – or lack thereof,
firmly rooted in the quality, suitability and
aptitude of the individual concerned. It is
impossible to polish the un-polishable, to
completely mangle that metaphor.
CAE has crunched some basic numbers
for a ten-year prediction of pilot demand. We
have all heard the massive 20-year numbers
put out by the Big Two – in the region of
600 to 700 thousand pilots to be trained –
although the numbers from CAE place a
little more perspective on how impossible a
task that is.
Right now, in 2019, we have a
surprisingly small pool (puddle?) of
pilots that keep the world’s commercial
aeronautical wheels turning.
A grand total of 305 000 active airline
pilots populate this planet, with around
55 000 more in the business jet arena. Of
the 300-thousand odd pilots, around half
operate in the US, with the balance globally.
According to CAE, around 20,000 pilots
migrate from corporate to airline, annually.
Thus, at present, we have approximately
360 000 actively employed airline and
corporate pilots. That is not a huge number,
considering global population numbers.
Come 2028, we will need 150,000 to replace

the dinosaurs, and another 170,000 for that

all-important, angst-inducing growth. This

brings the active figure up to 530,000 in ten

years from 360,000 presently.

As these are CAE’s figures, one would

assume they are reasonably independent of

the Big Two’s numbers. Obviously, CAE

has a dog in this fight in terms of vested

interests, as their growth predictions as a

primary training provider will affect their

market share and in turn, their share price.

This brings us to that all important

aspect: money, or the lack thereof. Both for

pilot training and, more specifically, the

massive amounts of loot sunk into airport

infrastructure and even bigger amounts into

aircraft financing.

The Europe-based Air Training Policy

Group (ATPG) says the ability to find

suitable finance is ‘the largest discriminator

in pilot career choice’ and points out that

this factor limits the pool of talent from

which the industry can recruit.

The Airports Council International

(ACI) and the World Bank had a conference

last month, to which CAE was invited to

present its version of the pilot training

squeeze that would potentially limit the

amount of cash that could be invested

in the entire industry in general. For the

aviation industry investors as a whole to

prepare to fleece those massive future

numbers of passengers, the operation must

have the requisite aspects in place. Namely

infrastructure, aircraft, skilled personnel

and the correct regulatory environment.

The infrastructure is more or less in

place, and where lacking or constrained,

will find gleeful investment from many

players, most notably the Chinese in Africa.

The aircraft manufacturers are flat-out

producing airframes for their bulging order

books.

So, the biggest speed bump in this

particular road is personnel – specifically

us, the long-suffering airline pilot. Oh, and

CAA, of course.

At this particular conference, it was

identified that for any of the dedicated

professional pilot training programs

to efficiently succeed (emphasis on

‘efficiently’), one cannot allocate precious

resources (skilled EBT instructors and

expensive simulators) to problem candidates.

Correct selection is King.

The various MPL (Multi-crew Pilot

Licence) programmes currently in place in

Europe and the UK have produced some

interesting data. Of the properly screened,

assessed and trained candidates, 90% are

currently in employment with airlines of all

sizes. That’s a huge improvement over the

numbers released by Ryanair.

This makes the funding model that

much easier for Big Finance to get their

heads around.

Traditional modular CPL courses (as is

the norm in most places around the world)

near-death experiences

in single engine aircraft

are essential to the

development of fortitude

for the awarding of a

Commercial Pilot Licence

(CPL).