More evidence has emerged of the challenge it poses for the economy. I have just managed to force the
Treasury to disclose data which illustrates UK exporters to the EU are unprepared for a no-deal Brexit.
In such a scenario, the 245,000 UK firms that currently only trade with EU countries will need to apply for
an Economic Operator Registration and Identification number (EORI) to trade goods into and out of the
UK. HMRC uses this number to identify businesses and collect duty on their goods. However, less than
three in 10 of these firms have registered for an EORI and, if they did so at the current rate (up to 10,000
per month), all businesses exporting to the EU won’t be able to export properly until the beginning of 2021
at the earliest, massively hampering EU/UK trade. This puts hundreds of thousands of jobs and businesses
at risk and is just one example of the chaos which awaits us all.
In this context, there is much debate about whether Johnson can retain the confidence of the House of
Commons and, if he loses it, whether a general election could take place before 31 October, allowing a new
government to take office and steer the UK away from the cliff edge. If an election doesn’t take place for
whatever reason before exit day, could parliament intervene to stop a “no deal” catastrophe?
The two issues need to be separated out. With regard to a potential election, the answer to the question is
not settled given we are in completely uncharted waters. It would certainly seem that if MPs have not voted
on a motion of confidence in the week of 2 September, a general election before 31 October appears more
difficult, though not impossible, given election timetable rules.
In any event, I cannot see how it can be avoided after crashing out without a deal because it is hard to see
how Johnson can effectively govern and get anything through the House of Commons with a majority of
one – he would surely have to precipitate a general election fairly swiftly after, if only to get some kind of
majority. All the signs from the Johnson camp are that they are preparing to go to the polls fairly swiftly in
the event that Brexit happens.
But, notwithstanding whether an election takes place, so long as parliament is sitting it has the ability to
stop the UK leaving without a deal on 31 October. We are confident there are ways that backbenchers could
seize control of the business of the House and pass a law obliging the government to seek an extension of
Article 50. Alternatively, it could amend legislation that will need to pass through parliament before Brexit
to do the same.
Johnson wants to frame the coming months as a battle between parliament
on one side, and his administration and the people on the other side
Johnson and the Vote Leave cabal headed by his senior adviser Dominic Cummings (Boris Johnson is very
much the puppet in my view) wish away the fact that democracies are not static but dynamic. They
continually assert that the 2016 referendum mandate must be respected but ignored the changed mandate
the 2017 general election gave to parliament to stop a hard Brexit. Had Theresa May secured a majority at
that 2017 election for a hard Brexit, we would have left the EU by now – she did not. Which is why there is
an impasse.
There is a lot of other politics going on in the background too. It is being briefed that Johnson wants to
frame the coming months as a battle between parliament on one side, and his administration and the people
on the other side. This only works if he can credibly claim to speak for most of the country, which he clearly
does not.
The Tory Party and Brexit Party are increasingly interchangeable, and Johnson clearly seeks to speak to the