Financial Times Europe - 05.08.2019

2 ★ † FINANCIAL TIMES Monday5 August 2019

emboldened by relatively strong jobs data for July. The Federal Reservecut US interest rates last weekbut Mr Trump said it should have cut further. Beijing expects Mr Trump to face more domestic resistance in the longer- term. The new tariffs scheduled for Sep- tember affect imports of consumer goods, which could increase the cost of living just as Mr Trump is gearing up for the2020 presidential election. While Beijing has suggested that it will suspend trade talks in reaction to the latest threat, it is likely to return to the negotiating table. “China’s strategy in this trade war escalation will be to slow down the pace of negotiation. This could lengthen the process of retaliation until the upcoming US presidential election,” wrote economist Iris Pangaaat Dutch bank ING. “Is thist Dutch bank ING. “Is this election interference? Well as they say, all’s fair in love and (trade) war.” Additional reporting by Xinning Liu in Beijing Editorial Commentpage 16

which has $3.1tn of foreign exchange reserves, does not appear to be panick- ing. China’s central bank chief has called the threshold “just a number”. “The yuan could break 7 before end of the year if no progress [is made] in the trade talks,”said Mr Zhuang, adding that the event was unlikely to be a major blow to China’s goal of achieving 6-6. per cent full-year growth. Beijing raised tariffson $60bnof US goods to 25 per cent in June and may be reluctant to add further tariffs as many US imports are used to make products which China then exports. But it has several other options for retaliation, ranging from enforcing a recently announced blacklist of “unreli- able entities” to restricting exports of rare earths used by US manufacturers. Mr Trump has shown no sign of backing down, telling reporters last week: “If they don’t want to trade with us any more that would be fine with me.” And despite signs the trade war is hitting US manufacturing, Mr Trump will be

As a result, Mr Trump’sannounce- mentof a 10 per cent levy on an additional $300bn of exports from Septem- ber would only reduce Chinese growth by 0 .1 per cent, according to consul- tancy Oxford Economics. A meeting of China’s politburo stand- ing committee chaired by Mr Xi to announce economic priorities for the rest of the year described “growing downward pressure” on the economy, but said risks were manageable. Beijingmade tax cuts and increased funding for infrastructure at the end of last year, but has sought to limit stimulus measures to leave room for more action over the next few months. “If the tariff round does go ahead and it lasts more than a few months, it could trigger a more aggressive stimulus,” said Bo Zhuang, an economist at TS Lom- bard. Stimulus will add to depreciation pressure on China’s currency,now near the psychologically important threshold of Rmb7 to the dollar. But Beijing,

TOM HANCOCK— SHANGHAI JAMES POLITI— WASHINGTON

Donald Trump’s attempt to raise the stakes in his trade war with Beijing by threatening new tariffs on Chinese imports has left the prospect of a deal to end the dispute looking increasingly remote. Mr Trump’s threat of tariffs on $300bn of imports last Friday shockedmarkets, destroying the calm that had set in since bilateraltalks resumedlast week that were described by both sides as“constructive”. Asked why he had followed the meeting with the sudden threat of new tariffs, Mr Trump saidChina’s President Xi Jin- ping was “not going fast enough”. Beijing has vowed to retaliate and its response could comettthis week. China ishis week. China is “becoming more hardline”, said Wendy Cutler, a former senior US trade official now at the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington. “I think this deal is getting harder and harder to bring together.” Analysts on both sidesquestionMr Trump’s tactics. While he hassought to pressureBeijing by threatening new tariffs several timesin the past year, agree- ment onissues that matter to the US such as intellectual property and indus- trial policy appears little closer. “Trump is in a rush, but China does not want to sign a deal without careful plans,” said Zhu Feng, an international relations professor at Nanjing Univer- sity. “China has prepared for extra tariffs already”. Washington hopesBeijing will be forced to make concessions because it fearsthe impact of tariffs on economic growth, which has fallen to its slowest pace since the 1990s. But China’s economic growth, reported at 6.3 per cent in the first half, is mainly dependent on expansion in domestic demand — consumption and investment —and not exports. Domes- tic consumption accounted for60 per centof growth in the first half, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

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INTERNATIONAL

AIME WILLIAMS— WASHINGTON JUDE WEBBER— MEXICO CITY

At least 29 people were killed and doz- ens wounded in two separate mass shootings in 24 hours of gun violence in the US, prompting soul searching and bitter political recriminations. The deadliest incident, in El Paso, Texas, was described by police as a potential hate crime, leading three Democratic presidential candidates — Beto O’Rourke, Pete Buttigieg and Julian Castro — to accuse the president of encouraging “white nationalism”. The Mexican government, meanwhile,

decried “racist discourse” which led to hate crimes. The latest shooting happened early yesterday morning, when nine people were killed by a man wearing body armour who opened fire with an assault rifle with a high-capacity magazine in an entertainment district of Dayton, Ohio. Police have revealed few details of the shooter and no motive. That came less than 24 hours after the rampage at a crowded shopping mall in El Paso, a predominantly Hispanic Texan city close to the US border with Mexico, on Saturday, which killed at least 20 people and wounded 26 others. Texas court records identified the gunman as Patrick Crusius, a 21-year- old white male from Allen, Texas. The shooting took place at a Walmart store and elsewhere at the Cielo Vista Mall.

Greg Allen, El Paso police chief, said the killings could be a potential hate crime after police officers uncovered “a manifesto” linked to the suspect. The anti-immigrant manifesto posted on social media referred to the “His- panic invasion of Texas” and expressed sympathy for the Christchurch mass killer, whomurdered 51 in New Zea- land. The document claimed that white people were being replaced by foreign- ers. The suspect, who comes from a city more than 650 miles away from El Paso, faces several capital murder charges. Prosecutors said they were treating the incident as domestic terrorism and would seek the death penalty. Beto O’Rourke, who halted his presidential campaigning to return to his hometown of El Paso, accused President Donald Trump of being a white nation-

alist who has encouraged racial hatred in aCNN interview. “I have a responsi- bility to call that out, to make sure that the American people understand what is being done in their name,” he said. Mexico expressed disgust with what appeared to be the deliberate targeting of Hispanics. “Xenophobic and racist discourse breeds hate crimes. Hispanic communities contribute enormously to the American society,” tweeted Martha Bárcena, Mexico’s ambassador to the US, adding she had already discussed the need to deal with such crimes with US Attorney-General William Barr. El Paso is a peaceful city compared with violence-torn Ciudad Juárez just across the border on the Mexican side, which was considered the murder capital of the world nearly a decade ago. Many Mexicans in border areas can get

permits to cross into the US andregu- larly shop in large American malls. Marcelo Ebrard, foreign minister, called it a “day of mourning for Mexico and the US”. According to the latest reports, there were seven Mexicans injured but he did not specify the number of dead. The two shootings were among the top three deadliest this year, according to the Gun Violence Archive, which tracks mass killings. There have been around 20 mass shootings this year in which four or more people were killed. While the Ohio shooter was killed by police, the El Paso suspect appears to have surrendered. Yesterday morning, Mr Trump tweeted: “God bless the people of El Paso Texas. God bless the people of Dayton, Ohio.”

ANDRES SCHIPANI— FLORIANÓPOLIS

Loggers have razed an area of Brazilian rainforest bigger than Luxembourg since president Jair Bolsonaro came to power, heightening fears for his administration’s custodianship of the Amazon jungle.

The rate of deforestation in the world’s largest tropical forest topped 3,926 sq km last month, according to prelimi- nary data from the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the country’s space agency. The deforestation in July, which followed sharp year-on-year rises in May and June, was the largest since Mr Bol- sonaro’s term started in January and the biggest in a single month for almost two years. The pace of destruction has sparked tensions between indigenous people who live in protected areas of the Ama- zon, and land-grabbers spurred by what they believe is tacit backing from the rightwing Mr Bolsonaro. It has also provoked global criticism, in part because the 6.7m sq km ecosys- tem plays a vital role in absorbing car- bon dioxide emissions and stabilising global temperatures, scientists say. Following the recent signing of a trade deal between the South American Mer- cosur bloc and the EU, French President Emmanuel Macron warned that imple- mentation of the accord was contingent upon Brazil adhering to the Paris cli- mate accord — a pact that Mr Bolsonaro had talked about leaving. The combative president has also clashed with the INPE over the deforestation data, accusing the agency — which tracks rainforest clearing via satellite imaging — of inflating its figures. “What we do not want is negative propaganda for Brazil,” he said last month, calling for tighter checking of the official data. His government criti- cised the data again on Thursday, adding that it would develop a new system to measure clearings in the rainforest. On Friday, the head of the INPE, Ricardo Galvão, said he had been sacked over the deforestation spat. Paulo Barreto, senior researcher at Imazon, an environmental research group, said: “It is typical of Bolsonaro to question the data. The president’s aggressiveness towards environmental agencies is strengthening the culture of impunity that’s already spreading in the Amazon region.” Mr Bolsonaro advocates opening up protected sections of the Amazon to commercial activity and expressed hope of appointing one of his sons as ambassador to the US towoo mining investors. The rainforests have long been coveted by the agribusiness sector and other industries. But environmentalists warn that Mr Bolsonaro’s pledges to open up reserved areas for development while rolling back environmental protections would further embolden loggers, wildcatmin- ers and ranchers keen to profit from deforestation. The Amazon is home to roughly half the world’s remaining tropical forests and about 10 per cent of all known spe- cies on earth. An area of Brazilian rainforest bigger than a football pitch is razed every minute, environmental activists say.

Gun violence

US shootings spark anger and blame

Mexico criticises rise of ‘racist discourse’ after mass

killings in Texas and Ohio

Brazil

Destruction

of rainforest

increases

sharply under

Bolsonaro

China-US talks.Pressure on Beijing

New Trump threat risks prolonging trade war

Xi ‘is not going fast enough’,

says the president, but

retaliation could be swift

SUE-LIN WONG, DON WEINLAND AND JOSEPH LEAHY— HONG KONG

Hong Kong is preparing for its first general strike in over 50 yearstoday as unrest spreadsafter another weekend of sometimes violent protests.

The planned strike, which organisers say will affect industries from finance to technology, is expected to highlight how anti-government discontent is growing among working professionals. Hong Kong is sufferingits worst political crisis sincethe 1997 handover. The unrest was sparked by opposition to a proposed extradition bill, but protesters’ demands haveexpandedto calls for democratic reforms and an inde- pendent inquiry into police brutality. A large strike“would be incredibly significant because Hong Kong has never had anything like it”, said Antony Dapiran, who has written a book on the history of dissent in Hong Kong. “There hasn’t been a general strike [in Hong Kong] since the 1960s when the Beijing-controlled unions called the strikes”, he said, adding that even basic strike actionswere very unusual in the Asian financial hub.

Today’s strike has been heavily pro- moted across the city, with protesters spray-painting the strike date “08.05” on buildings and road barriers in Kow- loon, where there wereclashes between police and protesters at the weekend. Yesterday China’sstate news agency Xinhua condemned the escalating unrest in Hong Kong, specifically criti- cising protesters who threw the Chinese national flag into the harbour. “The central government will not sit by idly and allow the situation to continue.” Fierce clashesyesterday marked the fourth straight day of protests. Hun- dreds of employees from Hong Kong’s banking and finance sectors gathered on Thursday for a brief “flash mob” pro- test while thousands of civil servants staged a rally of their own on Friday. Protesters said the strikewas needed to force the government to come to the table. “In Hong Kong, the government is more concerned about the economy,” said one protester who asked to be identified as Catherineyesterday in Tseung Kwan O, a suburb.One street away, protesters applauded as some pelted the police station with bricks, breaking win- dows.

Turnout fortoday’s strike across Hong Kong’s financial sector will be an indicatorof support among higher-in- come employees in one of the city’s most important industries. Thebattle between protesters and the government ishurting Hong Kong’s economy. Iris Pang, an economist at Dutch bank ING, has lowered her out- look for GDP growth for the year from 1.8 per cent to 1 per cent. Standard Chartered, one of the largest financial companies in the city, has indi- cated some tolerance for bankers par- ticipating in the strike. “I think we respect our staff’s rights to express their opinion, but at the same time we see

that it is very important for us to main- tain stable and good service in our net- work,” said Mary Huen, chief executive of Standard Chartered Hong Kong. “We trust our people’s professionalism in handling the situation.” A 34-year-old HSBCemployee said the bank had not officially sanctioned the strikebut some managers had told stafforally that they would not be penal- ised for not coming to work. An HSBC spokesman said: “We respect that our employees have their own personal views on political and social matters. Our priorities are the safety of our employees and supporting our custom- ers.” Hong Kong’s conglomerates have tra- ditionally had little appetite for strikes and union activities.Buttoday some of the city’s biggest companies will take a softer approach.One executive at acon- glomerate said last week thatit would not discouragestaff from attending the strike, nor would it promote the activity. Employees who chose not to come to worktoday could count it as a “work from home” day. Additional reporting by Primrose Riordan

Political crisis

Hong Kong braced for its first general strike in half a century

A protester aims a slingshot during fierce clashes yesterday

‘I think this deal is

getting harder and

harder to bring

together’

Wendy Cutler

Face-off: US President Donald Trump, left, shakes hands with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during a meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in June— Susan Walsh/AP

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Direttore Responsabile in Italia: I.M.D.Srl-Marco Provasi -

VK.COM/WSNWS

Direttore Responsabile in Italia: I.M.D.Srl-Marco Provasi - Via G. Puecher, 2 20037 Paderno Dugnano (MI), Italy.

VK.COM/WSNWS

Via G. Puecher, 2 20037 Paderno Dugnano (MI), Italy. Milano n. 296 del 08/05/08 - Poste Italiane SpA-Sped. in

VK.COM/WSNWS

Milano n. 296 del 08/05/08 - Poste Italiane SpA-Sped. in Abb.Post.DL. 353/2003 (conv. L. 27/02/2004-n.46) art. 1

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Abb.Post.DL. 353/2003 (conv. L. 27/02/2004-n.46) art. 1 .comma 1, DCB Milano.

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.comma 1, DCB Milano. B VK.COM/WSNWS

Bermont Impresion, Avenida de Alemania 12, CTC, VK.COM/WSNWS

ermont Impresion, Avenida de Alemania 12, CTC, 28821, Coslada, Madrid. VK.COM/WSNWS

28821, Coslada, Madrid.

Financial Times Europe - 05.08.2019

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