Section:GDN 1J PaGe:5 Edition Date:190803 Edition:01 Zone: Sent at 2/8/2019 16:35 cYanmaGentaYellowblac

Saturday 3 August 2019 The Guardian •

5

A defeat that

leaves Johnson

in a bit of a bind

in Conservative campaign headquarters. Boris Johnson

made a perfunctory visit to the seat on his fi rst trip to

Wales as prime minister. A handful of Tory MPs tweeted

that they would be out campaigning. The general mood

was that the Liberal Democrats were on an unstoppable

path to victory and the Tory working majority in

parliament would be reduced to one. It followed that it

was benefi cial to have a candidate they could blame the

loss on rather than a defeat that could be cast as the new

leader falling short.

In the end it was close. The Liberal Democrats did

succeed in turning over Davies’s 8,038 majority –

winning the seat back with a majority of 1,425. That

means the constituency ought to be a target seat for the

party at the next general election , one that could come

sooner rather than later.

While some Tories are more upbeat than usual

after a by election loss (with others angry that more

eff ort wasn’t put in), the result ought to give Johnson

pause for thought on how his party should pitch itself

in a general election. Part of the reason the Liberal

Democrats succeeded in the seat is that they benefi ted

from a remain alliance. Plaid Cymru and the Greens

agreed not to stand, in a bid to help a remain MP get

elected. The success of this arrangement means it would

likely be repeated in a general election. However, the

Conservatives have no current route to a pro-Brexit

alliance to counter this. Instead, the nearest pro-Brexit

party is proving a thorn in their side.

The Brexit party won 3,331 votes in the by election.

This cannot be described as the performance of a party

on the cusp of breaking the two-party system, as Nigel

Farage has repeatedly predicted. However, its rise could

be enough to cost the Tories a general election. If less

than half of the voters who moved to the Brexit party

on Thursday had backed the Tories , the Conservatives

would have kept hold of the seat. This is a problem as



Katy Balls

is the Spectator’s

deputy political

editor

a Tory/Brexit party electoral pact is unlikely. Johnson

has repeatedly ruled out such an agreement, and

Farage has said he has no plans to stand his party

down. Throughout the Tory leadership campaign,

Johnson won cheers and support by saying that he

was the leader to put the Brexit party back in its box.

The idea of doing a deal with Farage wouldn’t just be

damaging to Johnson’s ego: a bulk of Tory MPs view it

as electorally toxic. There is a sense that the route to

winning a majority at a general election rests on not

only uniting the leave vote – but also keeping Tory

remain voters onside.

Will this result put Johnson off the prospect of an

early election? With a majority of just one, it is not

really in the Tories’ hands to decide. The only way to

defi nitely avoid one is to extend article 50 if no deal can

be reached – as Theresa May did. However, this would

go down terribly with their core support and likely push

more voters to Farage. It follows that the options ahead

for winning an election are limited. The two most recent

by elections ( Thursday’s and Peterborough in June )

have demonstrated the threat that even an ineff ectual

Brexit party poses. Had the Brexit party not been in the

picture, the Tories would have had a better chance of

winning both.

The Tories are clear that keeping hold of the leave

vote at the next election is essential to their success.

In the event of an early election, their challenge – and

the one currently being explored by No 10 – is to deliver

Brexit, and if that fails to put the blame for any delay at

the door of the EU rather than the mselves. In doing so,

they hope to negate the Brexit party. This would mean

that, even if MPs manage to stop the government and

bring about an early election before the UK has left the

EU, the Tories have to look as though they ha d done

everything possible to try to deliver it. It’s a tall order,

but they have little choice other than to try.

Katy

Balls

T

he Brecon and Radnorshire

by election result was a surprise for

many Tory MPs – but not because

they lost. Instead, it’s because of

how close they came to holding on

to the seat. Ahead of the vote, the

Conservatives had appeared to be

following a beginner’s guide on how

to lose by elections and alienate voters. The vote had

been triggered by a recall petition after the incumbent

Tory MP, Chris Davies, was found guilty of submitting

fake expenses claims. The Conservative response?

To reselect him as a candidate – rather than opt for a

baggage-free contender.

As for the campaign, it’s not as though the Tories

went all out. MPs complain of a “defeatist” attitude

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