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(800) LA TIMESFounded Dec. 4, 1881
Vol. CXXXVIII No. 247
LOS ANGELES TIMES (ISSN 0458-3035)
is published by the Los Angeles Times,
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Premium issues per year. For each
Premium issue, your account balance
will be charged an additional fee up to
$4.49, in the billing period when the
section publishes. This will result in
shortening the length of your billing
period.Printed with soy-based ink on recycled newsprint from wood byproducts.Surfer photo:In the Aug. 4
Sports section, the caption
for a photo that accompa-
nied an article about surf
lingo identifed a surfer as
Vahine Fierro of Tahiti. The
surfer pictured, who was
about to be interviewed by
Ian Foulke, was Meah
Collins of Newport Beach.FOR THE
RECORDU.S. demands, which in-
clude the Chinese legisla-
ture writing changes into its
laws.
Beijing promptly an-
nounced it would stop new
U.S. farm purchases and let
its currency drop against the
dollar.
“Up until the latest salvo
from Trump, the strategy
was working out pretty well,”
said Sung Won Sohn, a busi-
ness economist at Loyola
Marymount University in
Los Angeles. Trump got an
economic boost from tax
cuts, and then the Fed
shifted its interest rate pol-
icy that eventually led to rate
cuts last week, all of which
buoyed stocks. “But the lat-
est salvo, 10% tariffs on $
billion, was a significant pol-
icy mistake.”
Beijing moved to stabi-
lize its currency Tuesday
and didn’t react to Trump’s
order to designate China aChina as their best cus-
tomer. Similarly, expansion
of tariffs on Chinese goods
will eventually mean higher
prices for U.S. consumers,
especially Trump’s new 10%
tariffs on $300 billion of prod-
ucts. Assuming they take ef-
fect on Sept. 1, those tariffs
will hit shoes, clothes, cell-
phones and electronics,
among other household
things.
And it’s almost impos-
sible to calculate what re-
newed conflict may mean for
global financial markets,
though Wall Street’s panicky
reaction when Beijing al-
lowed a devaluation of its
currency suggests future in-
stability. This at a time when
the world economy is slow-
ing.
Longer term, the trade
war could cut off many U.S.
companies, including pro-
ducers of materials for high-
tech industries, from a lucra-
tive market.
The conflict may also in-
crease pressure on Beijing to
move away from depend-ence on exports and in-
crease its efforts to supply
its domestic markets itself.
For American companies,
that would probably curbtheir opportunities for fu-
ture growth in perhaps the
richest future market for
consumer goods in the
world.
On Monday, Trump add-
ed a gut punch to his tariffs
by making good on his cam-
paign promise to label Bei-
jing a “currency manipula-
tor.”
If that’s just a hardball
negotiating tactic, it has the
downside for Trump of mak-
ing it harder to accept less
than total victory.
He would risk a big back-
lash if he were to accept any-
thing less than a compre-
hensive deal that includes
not just hefty purchases of
American goods but major
structural reforms to Chi-
na’s state-run economy.
And this week’s swift re-
sponse from Beijing to
Trump’s new tariffs made it
clear that President Xi Jin-
ping isn’t going to cave tocurrency manipulator, help-
ing to calm investors and re-
cover some of the losses
from recent days.
But the threat that the
trade war might expand into
a currency battle has raised
the odds of a U.S. recession
at the end of next year.
The strong economy is
the biggest thing Trump has
going for him, but Sohn now
sees a 30% to 35% chance of
downturn next year, double
from just a week ago.
Mark Zandi, chief econo-
mist at Moody’s Analytics,
raised the probability of a re-
cession by the end of 2020 to
55%, from 40% before the lat-
est trade war escalation.
Zandi said those odds could
go back down if Trump
backed away from his plan to
slap new tariffs or moved to
de-escalate, which he has
done before.
But with both sides hav-
ing hardened recently, that’s
less likely now. The Chinese
have given indications
they’re prepared to tough it
out.
“The Fed could aggres-
sively cut rates to offset the
negative economic fallout
from the trade war,” Zandi
said, noting that he now ex-
pects two or three more
quarter-point cuts by the
end of the year. “If the econo-
my avoids recession, it will
be because of the Fed’s ef-
forts, but it will be difficult
for policymakers to success-
fully calibrate the rate cuts
to offset the impact of the
trade war.”
Sohn was less sanguine
about the central bank’s
firepower. “I don’t think the
Fed can bail [Trump] out
even if it wants to,” he said.
The Fed’s policymaking
committee is somewhat di-
vided on future rate actions.
Two out of 10 officials dis-
sented in last week’s rate cut
decision, and among those
who voted for it, at least one
official on Tuesday pushed
back against the thinking
that the Fed was going to
keep cutting because of
trade tensions.
“I don’t think it is realistic
for the Fed to respond to
each threat and counter-
threat in a tit-for-tat trade
war,” James Bullard, presi-
dent of the St. Louis Fed,
told reporters in Washing-
ton on Tuesday. Bullard said
that, for his part, the rate cut
last week appeared to have
dealt with the uncertainties
caused by the trade war.
Throughout Trump’s
first term, there has been di-
vision within his administra-
tion about how to approach
China. Hard-liners, who
have been gaining influence,
want to squeeze China to
make concessions and
would not mind if ongoing
tensions pushed investors
and businesses away from
China in a decoupling of the
two economies. But others
such as Treasury Secretary
Steven T. Mnuchin have
sought a softer tack, worried
about the damage to U.S.
markets and the broader
economy.
Larry Kudlow, Trump’s
director of the National
Economic Council, insisted
that despite slowing global
growth, the American econ-
omy is humming and could
withstand the hit from tar-
iffs.
“If there’s any consumer
impact, it’s very small,” he
told reporters on the White
House driveway Tuesday
morning. He said it’s the
Chinese who are struggling
with the trade war.
“The economic burden is
falling vastly more on them,”
he said. “Frankly the biggest
loser is China right now.”
Even so, Kudlow said, it’s
possible the new tariffs
won’t take effect if there’s
good progress in negotia-
tions. He said he expects
Chinese officials to come to
Washington next month as
previously scheduled.
Analysts say Trump offi-
cials may be overestimating
the pressures to China’s
leadership from its slowing
economy. Beijing hasn’t yet
gone all out on stimulus or
opened the credit flood-
gates, suggesting the gov-
ernment believes the cur-
rent situation is sustainable.
“I think both sides can
tolerate the status quo,” said
Derek Scissors, a China ex-
pert at the American Enter-
prise Institute.
“On the Chinese side,
they have some reason to
make a deal, but why would
you give up a lot in a deal to
someone who changes his
mind a lot and might not be
president in a year and
half?” he said.
For Trump, there’s also
an incentive to stay the
course, he said. “There’s a lot
of risk trying to come back
and say, ‘I got this great
deal.’ ”Escalation of trade war raises risks
WHITE HOUSE economic advisor Larry Kudlow
believes the U.S. could withstand the effect of tariffs.Saul LoebAFP/Getty Images[China,from A1]
CIUDAD JUAREZ, Mexi-
co — The massacre at an El
Paso Walmart store on Sat-
urday hasn’t diminished Sil-
via Ivania’s desire to move to
the United States — even if
the killer of 22 people was ap-
parently motivated by ha-
tred of Latino immigrants.
“That’s something that
can happen anywhere,” said
Ivania, 37, a citizen of Hon-
duras, speaking at the Good
Samaritan migrant shelter
in this border city across the
Rio Grande from El Paso.
“The violence in Honduras is
a lot worse than in the
United States.”
She and several other mi-
grants interviewed Tuesday
at the shelter — temporary
home to about 100, mostly
Central Americans, but in-
cluding U.S.-bound Cubans,
Africans and others —
agreed that the mass killing
would not dissuade them.
“If anything, I want to go
to the United States even
more than before,” said Da-
nieska Del Toro, 34, from Ha-
vana. “They arrested the
guy, right? Maybe he was
crazy. In Cuba we have vi-
olence too, even if the regime
says there is none.”
Along the nearby Rio
Grande, which separates
the U.S. and Mexico, scat-
tered groups of migrants
could be seen Tuesday
scampering across the river
— which, at the moment, has
been reduced to a few scat-
tered puddles amid a narrow
ribbon of green, and easy to
traverse on foot. Its shallow
depths seem to mock signs
warning people of the dan-
ger of drowning.
At midday, amid 100-de-
gree-plus temperatures,
about 20 people — some
holding their children’s
hands — surrendered to U.S.
Border Patrol vans waiting
on the other side. As is usu-
ally the case, the migrants
didn’t attempt to evade U.S.
immigration authorities,
but sought them out.
Mexican national guard
troops posted on the south
side said they urged border
crossers not to proceed, butdidn’t prevent their passage.
“That’s their decision; we
just tell them of the risks,”
said one Mexican national
guard officer, who declined
to be named because she
wasn’t authorized to speak
publicly.
Arrests along the U.S.-
Mexico border are down
about 40% since Mexico be-
gan a crackdown on mi-
grants in early June, author-
ities say. Mexican officials
have stepped up detentions
and deportations of Central
Americans and other north-
bound migrants.
But many are still mak-ing their way to the border,
and thousands are stranded
in Juarez and other north-
ern border towns. Many, like
Ivania and Del Toro, are
waiting for the adjudication
of political asylum petitions
filed when they were de-
tained on the U.S. side. Oth-
ers are waiting their turns to
file asylum applications.
Ivania said she and her
husband — a former Hon-
duran soldier — and two
daughters, aged 9 and 7, en-
tered southern Mexico in
April and waited there for
more than two months to re-
ceive humanitarian visasfrom the Mexican govern-
ment. In southern Mexico,
too, the family lived in a shel-
ter, she said.
The humanitarian visas
allowed the family to tra-
verse Mexico legally. They
took public buses to Juarez,
crossed the border illegally
into El Paso on July 4 and
surrendered to the U.S. Bor-
der Patrol. Their journey fol-
lowed the footsteps of tens of
thousands of migrants in re-
cent months.
After a one-day deten-
tion, Ivania and her family
were returned to Mexico to
await a court hearing in El
Paso on their asylum case
under the Trump adminis-
tration’s so-called Remain in
Mexico policy.
“At least our date is fi-
nally coming up,” said Iva-
nia, noting that the family
has an appointment Aug. 20
at the U.S. border crossing in
El Paso for a hearing on their
asylum case.
But their wait could drag
on beyond Aug. 20. Some
asylum applicants have
been sent back again to
Mexico after initial hearings
to wait for further court ses-
sions.
To Ivania, the fact that El
Paso was the site of a mass
shooting apparently target-
ing Latinos is mostly irrele-
vant. If allowed to enter the
United States, she said her
family planned to move in
with relatives in Texas.
“All countries have
crime,” said Ivania, seated
inside the migrant shelter in
a small chapel, now filled
with mattresses, backpacks
and sleeping children. “What
happened is out of the ordi-
nary and terrible for the vic-
tims. But for my family the
United States represents an
opportunity that we don’t
have in Honduras.”After El Paso, migrants are undeterred
CENTRAL AMERICANmigrants enter the U.S. on Tuesday after crossing a fence between Ciudad Juarez,
Mexico, and El Paso. A Juarez shelter resident said that “violence in Honduras is a lot worse” than in the U.S.Rey JaureguiEPA/ShutterstockMany at a Mexican
shelter say massacre
won’t alter plans to
seek new lives in U.S.
By Patrick J.
McDonnell
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