T HE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONAL EDITION WEDNESDAY, JULY 31, 2019| 7

Business

One morning last fall in Los Angeles, the

comic and actress Kate Micucci sat

chewing over a pitch for a television se-

ries with her writing partner, Felicia

Day. How conventional would the gen-

der roles have to be, they wondered, be-

fore a studio would bite?

Their basic premise was “manic pixie

dream girl grows up”: Suppose you took

a quirky-but-adorable female character,

a staple of small films like “Amélie” and

“Garden State,” and showed what she

and her best friend would be like push-

ing 40.

The role was not a stretch for either

woman. Ms. Micucci has played her

share of manic pixies on shows like “The

Big Bang Theory” and “Scrubs.” Ms.

Day built a following as the creator of

the web series “The Guild,” and as the

love interest in Joss Whedon’s antihero

sendup, “Dr. Horrible’s Sing-Along

Blog.”

When they pitched the concept

around town, though, they got a typical

Hollywood response. Producers told the

pair they loved the idea — but that

they’d love it more with just a few

changes.

The series that excited the producers

would indeed feature two women in

their late 30s. But there would be a

younger man at the center of the show,

who would be a source of inspiration and

self-knowledge.

Ms. Micucci began to muse about this

new version of the show, tentatively

called “Hot Guy in the Basement.” They

still hadn’t committed to the producers’

Peak TV not so golden for women

WOMEN, PAGE 8

It was said to be an opening

for female comics. Guess

who gets the final laugh.

BY NOAM SCHEIBER

Kate Micucci, right, and Felicia Day. “Hollywood is perfect at taking what you’re enthu-

siastic about and just draining it till you’re not excited about it,” Ms. Day said.

ELIZABETH LIPPMAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

The Federal Reserve this week will most

likely cut interest rates for the first time

since 2008, when the United States

economy was mired in a deep recession,

as the central bank tries to keep a record

economic expansion from petering out.

The expected change, while likely to

be small, will end an era of gradual rate

increases intended to return the econ-

omy to a more “normal” state after the

Great Recession, when the Fed slashed

rates nearly to zero as it tried to rescue

the economy. The Fed’s approach has

largely worked — the United States

economy is growing, unemployment is

at a 50-year low and wages are slowly

rising.

But a rate cut at this moment in the

cycle sends a signal: The current econ-

omy could be as good as it gets.

The Fed’s move on Wednesday may

cheer President Trump, who has jaw-

boned the central bank for a year over

its 2018 rate increases, saying the econ-

omy would have gone up “like a rocket,”

had the Fed not gotten it wrong.

“The Fed acted too soon. I turned out

to be right. They acted too soon and too

violently,” Mr. Trump said on Friday at

the White House.

But the Fed, which operates inde-

pendently of the White House, is likely

to make a decision driven by precaution,

not politics, as it tries to inoculate the

economy against the harmful effects of

slowing global growth and Mr. Trump’s

trade war.

While the United States economy con-

tinues to chug along, cracks are begin-

ning to show. Manufacturing gauges,

which often lead the rest of the economy,

are slumping across the world. Business

investment and confidence have suf-

fered under Mr. Trump’s trade spats and

tariffs. A potent recession indicator is

flashing red — rates on 10-year bonds

have been lower than those on 3-month

government securities, a sign that in-

vestors are pessimistic about the future.

The effect of Mr. Trump’s $1.5 trillion

tax cut is waning and businesses report

that they are holding off on expanding,

in part because of concern about global

economic growth and a protracted trade

dispute between the United States and

China. Gross domestic product, the

broadest measure of goods and services

produced in the United States economy,

rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the

second quarter, according to data re-

leased on Friday. That is a decent pace,

but it shows the economy is reverting to

normal after a 3.1 percent growth rate in

the first quarter.

Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has

been signaling a possible rate cut,

telling lawmakers this month that “the

uncertainties around global growth and

trade continue to weigh on the outlook”

and that the Fed would act as needed to

sustain the economic expansion.

Anticipation of a cut may already be

providing a slight economic jolt by low-

ering consumer interest rates and send-

ing stocks soaring, giving companies

more reason to invest and consumers an

extra nudge to buy a house or a car. The

Fed raised rates nine times in total, and

four times in 2018, before pausing this

year. This move is seen by many as a re-

calibration to help the economy remain

on track, not the start of a cycle that will

return rates to rock bottom.

Yet in cutting now, the Fed is effec-

tively ending its campaign to put eco-

nomic policy back to normal. The shift

confirms that interest rates will be much

lower from now on, leaving the economy

in a much more fragile state.

After years of increases, interest

rates remain historically low and eco-

nomic output, while growing, has hov-

ered at a disappointing 2 percent for

most of the past decade as population

aging and slow productivity gains weigh

down its potential. Inflation also re-

mains mired below the Fed’s goal.

The Fed’s target interest rate stands

between 2.25 and 2.50 percent, roughly

half of its 5.25 percent level before the

financial crisis, leaving the central bank

with limited room to act in the event of a

recession. “It’s much more fragile,” Di-

ane Swonk, chief economist at Grant

Thornton, said of the economy, explain-

ing that consumers and businesses

should be “euphoric” this late in a cycle

but are not.

That reflects “the uncertainty, and the

scars — we still have scars from the cri-

sis,” she said.

The stock market has gyrated over

the past year on worries about Mr.

Trump’s trade wars, a slowdown in

China and the prospect of the Fed push-

ing through more rate increases. Con-

sumers pulled back their spending late

last year as uncertainties mounted, a

sign of how susceptible they might be to

any downturn.

The central bank is paying attention

to that vulnerability. Following signal-

ing by policymakers, investors antici-

pate that the Fed will cut rates by a quar-

ter-point this month and once more this

year. Fed officials expect to eventually

resume raising rates, based on their

June economic projections, which show

a rebound in 2021 and a slightly higher

Fed funds rate over the longer run.

But many analysts say it is unlikely

that the Fed will lift rates again before

the economy tips into a recession. That

would make the current rate setting this

business cycle’s peak.

“We think we’re in the beginning of

the end,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of

United States rates strategy at Société

Générale. Her team expects a down-

turn, and further rate cuts, in 2020.

Even if it keeps a recession at bay, the

Fed is working against a perilous back-

drop. The central bank is tasked with

maintaining full employment and stable

inflation, which it defines as price gains

around 2 percent. That’s enough to fend

off economy-harming deflation.

Policymakers have yet to hit their

price goal sustainably: Their preferred

inflation gauge came in at just 1.5 per-

cent in the year through May. Officials

have been banking on continued eco-

nomic growth to push wages and prices

up — so any slowdown could ensure

they miss their goal, denting their credi-

bility. “On the basis of inflation alone, I

could feel confident in arguing for a cou-

ple of rate cuts before the end of the

year,” Charles Evans, president of the

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said

on July 16.

Interest rates make matters worse.

The Fed policy setting that neither

stokes nor reins in growth has been

creeping lower as growth slows, a trend

that has been slowly playing out for

years across advanced economies.

That’s why policymakers have not

been able to lift rates more despite a

very long expansion: The economy

needs very low rates just to sustain his-

torically ho-hum progress. And it leaves

the Fed with far less ammunition to fight

future downturns. Gone are the days of

cutting 5 percentage points to goad

growth back to life, as the Fed did in

2007 and 2008.

Between the continuing shortfall and

the Fed’s more limited room to maneu-

ver, officials think the risks of waiting

too long to adjust policy are much great-

er than the costs of going early and later

discovering that they could have held

off. “It’s better to take preventive meas-

ures than to wait for disaster to unfold,”

John C. Williams, president of the Fed-

eral Reserve Bank of New York, said on

July 18. “When you only have so much

stimulus at your disposal, it pays to act

quickly to lower rates at the first sign of

economic distress.”

The Fed has acted early in the past. Of

the seven initial rate cuts that have hap-

pened outside of recessions in the past

30 years — moves that were or could

have been seen as precautionary — 1998

is the most similar to now.

As “Armageddon” smashed the box

office and 8-year-olds across the coun-

try struggled to keep Tamagotchis alive,

the job market looked hot, inflation lin-

gered below 2 percent, and, like today,

the economic picture at home looked

mixed as risks abroad mounted.

Back then a financial crisis in Russia,

a contraction in Japan and an election

and reforms in Brazil threatened the

United States expansion. The Fed cut by

a quarter-point in September 1998 and

followed that up with an impromptu cut

in mid-October and another in Novem-

ber. The economy righted itself.

But there are major differences be-

tween that experience and this one. The

Fed moved quickly in 1998 while stock

markets were sinking on the heels of

very real events, including the near fail-

ure of Long-Term Capital Management,

a major hedge fund.

This time, the Fed merely signaled

coming moves when both real economic

data and stocks were wobbling in May

and early June, spooked by the specter

of trade escalation. Economic data has

since improved, and the Fed’s guidance

helped to send equity indexes to record

highs. “We did not move at the June

meeting, but in effect we did move at the

June meeting, because markets already

priced that in,” James Bullard, president

of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,

told reporters on July 19.

Mr. Bullard and other Fed officials

have tried to signal that this cut may be

isolated if the economy stays on track.

Despite their assurances that policy

will be flexible and data-dependent, and

in the face of a recent improvement in

several economic indicators, market

pricing suggests investors are betting

on further easing before the end of the

year.

Fed likely to make

first cut since 2008

WASHINGTON

Decision could be a signal

that this may be as good

as the economy will get

BY JEANNA SMIALEK

The Federal Reserve chief, Jerome H.

Powell, has said that the Fed would act as

needed to sustain expansion.

ZACH GIBSON/GETTY IMAGES

For years, the American agricultural gi-

ant Cargill has been on relatively good

terms with environmental advocates,

praised for agreeing to a landmark mor-

atorium on buying soybeans grown on

deforested land in the Amazon rain for-

est.

In recent weeks, though, that relation-

ship has soured over the company’s re-

fusal to agree to a similar moratorium in

another environmentally sensitive re-

gion of Brazil and, more broadly, over its

failure to meet its anti-deforestation tar-

gets. This month, the environmental ad-

vocacy group Mighty Earth released a

report titled “Cargill: The Worst Com-

pany in the World.”

The fierce reaction shows how corpo-

rations that fall short of ambitious envi-

ronmental commitments can be re-

ceived. And it demonstrates the speed

with which a company can go from envi-

ronmental leader to scourge in the eyes

of some advocates.

“What was disappointing was that

Cargill got lauded and then didn’t follow

through,” said Nathalie Walker, a direc-

tor at the National Wildlife Federation.

“I don’t think anyone is taking a person-

al view or an emotional view about a

company. It’s judging them by their ac-

tions.”

Cargill, which acts as a middleman be-

tween farms and big food companies, is

one of the top exporters of Brazilian soy.

Before it committed to the soy moratori-

um in 2006, advocacy organizations like

Greenpeace had pressed the company

to stop working with farmers who

cleared native vegetation in the Ama-

zon, where rampant deforestation was

creating an environmental catastrophe.

Eventually, Cargill agreed to the mora-

torium — a move that environmental

groups say has helped significantly re-

duce deforestation in the region.

The largest privately owned company

in the United States, Cargill has never

exactly been the darling of the envi-

ronmental community. But over the

years, advocacy groups, often pugna-

cious in their criticism of powerful cor-

porations, have occasionally lauded the

company for its promises to do better.

Cargill even received a Leadership in

Environment Award for its role in the

Amazon moratorium from the Keystone

Policy Center, a nonprofit organization

focused on compromise and civil dia-

logue.

Recently, however, the good will

seems to have evaporated. Last month,

Greenpeace questioned the company’s

commitment to ending deforestation in

Brazil, shortly before Mighty Earth re-

leased its scathing 7,000-word con-

demnation of Cargill, which criticized

the company for pollution and meat con-

tamination, as well as deforestation.

“It’s hard to hear,” said Ruth Kim-

melshue, Cargill’s chief sustainability

officer. “It doesn’t feel very good.”

Much of the recent criticism of Cargill

is focused on the continuing deforesta-

tion in the Cerrado, a vast Brazilian sa-

vanna where the company buys large

quantities of soy from local farmers. The

Cerrado accounts for around 60 percent

of Brazil’s total soy production, roughly

20 times the amount grown in the Ama-

zon.

“The economic stakes are much

greater,” said David Cleary, the director

of global agriculture at the Nature Con-

servancy.

Cargill’s experience also highlights

the thorny politics facing American

companies in Brazil, whose new popu-

list president, Jair Bolsonaro, has

sought to roll back environmental regu-

lations and accelerate economic growth.

The Brazilian section of the Amazon has

seen a major uptick in forest loss since

Mr. Bolsonaro took office in January.

Over the past few years, advocates

have called for the company to establish

a soy moratorium in the Cerrado, which

has lost more than half its native plant

life and has significantly less protection

under Brazilian law than the Amazon

does. Experts say the damage to the re-

gion has disrupted the local water sys-

tem and exacerbated climate change.

Cargill has refused to agree to a Cer-

rado moratorium. Last month, the com-

pany acknowledged that it would miss

an environmental target it had set a dec-

ade ago: the elimination of deforesta-

tion from its supply chain by 2020. In-

stead, it released a new “soy action

plan” that pledged $30 million toward

the development of “economically via-

ble options for farmers as alternatives

to converting native vegetation.”

The plan is light on specifics. But, in

an open letter sent to Brazilian farmers

this month, Cargill made its opposition

to a second moratorium explicit, assur-

ing the agricultural community that “we

understand that this is not the appropri-

ate instrument to solve the issue.”

Glenn Hurowitz, who runs Mighty

Earth, said Cargill’s chief executive, Da-

vid MacLennan, told him privately this

year that the company would get behind

a Cerrado moratorium.

“They’re speaking out of both sides of

their mouth,” Mr. Hurowitz said.

“They’re being two-faced in a fairly

transparent way.”

Ms. Kimmelshue denies that the com-

pany ever committed to instituting a

new moratorium and insists that the sit-

uation in the Cerrado is more compli-

cated than in the Amazon.

“Different place, different time, differ-

ent circumstances,” she said.

One important distinction: While

Cargill was the largest soy trader oper-

ating in the Amazon, it faces signifi-

cantly more competition, both local and

international, in the Cerrado. Chinese

companies buy most of Brazil’s soy.

“While we could stand up and say

we’re not going to buy anymore, and de-

clare a moratorium individually, that

just pushes the problem,” Ms. Kim-

melshue said. “We exit, and somebody

else moves in. We’ve got to get more

deeply involved to help find a solution.”

Another potential complication is the

importance of soy to the Brazilian agri-

culture industry. A Cerrado moratorium

would likely create tensions with local

farmers, who are legally entitled to clear

vegetation across much of the region,

said Carlos Klink, Brazil’s former na-

tional secretary for climate change.

“They want to be a part of the decision

making,” Mr. Klink said.

But environmental advocates argue

that Brazilian farmers could continue

growing soy on already-cleared land in

the Cerrado without damaging the hab-

itat.

“There’s nine times more cleared land

than there is habitat you could clear,”

said Ms. Walker of the National Wildlife

Federation. “There’s a real win-win.

Farmers can produce more and ex-

pand.”

Environmental advocacy groups are

not alone in their efforts to protect the

Cerrado. A number of business coali-

tions are working on solutions to defor-

estation in the region, including the Cer-

rado Work Group, a collaboration

among soy traders and Brazilian non-

governmental organizations. And doz-

ens of companies — including McDon-

ald’s, one of Cargill’s biggest customers

— have signed the Cerrado Manifesto, a

pledge to halt forest loss associated with

the agriculture business.

McDonald’s did not respond to a re-

quest for comment on Cargill’s opposi-

tion to a Cerrado moratorium.

Dr. Cleary, the Nature Conservancy

official, said he expected Cargill and

other companies to eventually agree to

a cutoff date after which they would not

buy soy from newly cleared areas.

“What’s going to happen in the Cer-

rado is some kind of agreement with a

financial package,” he said. “And it

would have to be big enough to encour-

age enough farmers to move in that di-

rection.”

Still, at least for now, Cargill is being

pilloried for its failure to meet its defor-

estation target and for its opposition to a

Cerrado moratorium. Cargill is not the

first major company to fall short of an

environmental commitment, and it is

unlikely to be the last.

“As more companies step up to the

plate and start doing something, there

are going to be more companies that are

unable to meet those commitments,”

said Nancy Landrum, an expert on sus-

tainable business management at Loyo-

la University Chicago. “I just hope they

can learn from their mistakes.”

Ms. Kimmelshue, the sustainability

officer, acknowledged that Cargill had

not acted quickly enough to combat de-

forestation. “We need to move with a

greater sense of urgency,” she said. But

she said the company did not regret

making ambitious commitments.

Much of the recent criticism of Cargill is focused on the deforestation in the Cerrado, a Brazilian savanna where the company buys large quantities of soy from local farmers.

NELSON ALMEIDA/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES

Hard fall from a green height

Environmental groups turn

on U.S. agricultural giant

over Brazil deforestation

BY DAVID YAFFE-BELLANY

Over the years, environmental

groups had lauded Cargill for its

promises to do better. But the

good will seems to have faded.

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