30 The Americas The EconomistFebruary 15th 2020
2Bello “What is Peronism?”
O
n february 3rdArgentina’s new
Peronist president, Alberto Fernán-
dez, joined Angela Merkel for dinner at
the German chancellery in Berlin. Ac-
cording to press reports, Mrs Merkel
asked her guest a question: “What is
Peronism? I don’t understand. Are you on
the left or the right?” Bello imagines a
conversation that might have followed.
Mr Fernández laughed. He was used
to foreigners not knowing much about
Argentina besides Evita, tango and
hyperinflation. But something about Mrs
Merkel suggested that she was only
feigning ignorance. “Let me explain,”
said Mr Fernández cautiously. “First of
all, we’re not populists. That was an
invention of Mauricio Macri, my neo-
liberal predecessor. We don’t just stir up
the masses.”
“Really?” asked Mrs Merkel, sounding
unconvinced.
“Really. I’m a social democrat,” the
president insisted. “The base of Peron-
ism is the trade unions and the poor,
whom we always look after. But we also
have the industrialists behind us. They
liked General Juan Perón’s protectionism
75 years ago and they like it today. And we
have the pope.”
“As always, Perón himself put it best,”
Mr Fernández continued. “In 1972 he told
a journalist: ‘Look, in Argentina, 30% are
Radicals...30% are conservatives and a
similar amount Socialists.’ ‘So where are
the Peronists?’ asked the journalist. ‘Ah,’
replied Perón, ‘we are all Peronists.’”
“Perhaps we should try this Peronism
thing,” mused his host. Slightly alarmed,
an aide to the chancellor intervened. “We
have done some research,” he said. “And
we have read ‘What is Populism?’ by
Jan-Werner Müller, a German political
scientist. The professor writes that ‘pop-
ulists claim that they, and they alone,represent the people.’ ” The aide went on:
“Perón said that his movement ‘has ceased
to be the cause of one man to become the
cause of the people’. He also said ‘true
democracy is where the government does
what the people want and defends a single
interest, that of the people.’ ”
“Quite,” said Mr Fernández. “That’s why
we have no social explosion in Argentina.”
“The first problem,” replied the pesky
aide, “is who decides who constitute ‘the
people’? Do those who disagree with you
belong or not? What is clear to us is that
Peronism is a populist way of exercising
power, and that’s why you can be both left-
and right-wing. Herr Professor also writes
that populist governments usually try to
hijack the state apparatus, are prone to
corruption and practise ‘mass clientelism’.
We have seen this in Argentina.”
Faced with such cold Weberian logic,
Mr Fernández changed tack. “We are the
people who know how to run the state and
the economy,” he chipped in. “We are the
professionals.” He explained that in 1989
and 2002 Peronists had inherited eco-
nomic chaos. “And that’s what Macri leftme, too,” he complained.
“True,” intervened the aide. “But it
was the Peronists who created the mess
in the first place. You have dominated
Argentina since 1946. In that period the
country has moved from the first world
to the third.” There was an awkward
silence. The chancellor cut in: “President
Fernández...or may I call you Alberto?”
“Cristina does,” came the reply.
“Cristina? Oh, your vice-president,
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who
used to be president herself. Yes, I met
her. Her government asserted in 2015 that
there was more poverty in Germany than
in her Argentina, which was nonsense.
And she claimed to have abolished in-
flation by changing the head of the statis-
tics institute. Germans would never
stand for that. There’d be a revolution.”
“We are not hiding inflation,” said Mr
Fernández. “I’ve frozen most pensions
for a few months, so inflation will get rid
of the fiscal deficit just as your bankers
want me to. We’ve also negotiated a wage
freeze with our union allies. As the Ar-
gentine saying goes, ‘Some bums will
bleed more than others.’ ”
“Our companies tell me they won’t
invest in Argentina until you lift ex-
change controls and open up the econ-
omy,” added the chancellor.
“I am a moderate,” said Mr Fernández.
“I know that dollars don’t grow on ombu
trees. Argentina should join the world.
But you are asking me to dance the tango
while I’m still in intensive care.”
As she finished her rabbit, Mrs Merkel
said consolingly: “I can see that it’s not
easy to be a Peronist social democrat.” “It
isn’t,” said Mr Fernández. “The economy
is a mess, everyone expects a Peronist
president to shower them with money,
and I don’t have any. I don’t normally
drink, but I need a glass of Malbec.”Argentina’s president tries to explain to the German chancellorflights on a private jet to the deputy justice
minister. (He denies wrongdoing.)
Mr Bukele’s popularity will depend
partly on his success in fighting gangs,
which earn most of their money by extort-
ing it from ordinary Salvadoreans. In 2015
El Salvador’s murder rate of more than 100
per 100,000 people was the world’s highest.
Lately violence has fallen. In 2019 the mur-
der rate was a third of its peak. In January
this year there were 120 killings, fewer than
in any month since the end of the civil war
in 1992. That is not just the president’s do-
ing. Violence has dropped in all the coun-tries of the Northern Triangle (which in-
cludes Honduras and Guatemala). But
there is little evidence that extortion has
declined in El Salvador. Mr Bukele’s securi-
ty plan is aimed at curbing non-lethal
crime as well as murder.
During his brief tenure, he has behaved
both like a technocrat and a populist show-
man. This month he announced that Ricar-
do Hausmann, an economist at Harvard
University, would advise his government.
But his proposed anti-corruption commis-
sion looks as if it will have little power.
Mr Bukele could have been more pa-tient. He will probably gain control over
congress in legislative elections due next
year. Rather than wait, he has triggered a
constitutional crisis and memories of mil-
itary dictatorship and the civil war, in
which 75,000 people died.
Mr Bukele eventually called off the
army, and grudgingly agreed to comply
with an order by the Constitutional Court
that he keep the soldiers out of congress.
The president may have delighted some of
his supporters by bullying the legislature.
Salvadoreans who care about the health of
their democracy are rightly worried. 7