The Economist - USA (2020-02-15)

The EconomistFebruary 15th 2020 Asia 33

1

I

n a bucolicsetting, fringed by the snow-

cloaked mountains of south-eastern Kaz-

akhstan, lie two adjoining villages separat-

ed by a field of bleating fat-tailed sheep.

This week the ethnic Kazakhs of Qara-

kemer were going about their business as

usual, a man trotting down the main street

on a horse, children lugging milk home in

pails. Their neighbours in Masanchi, a ten-

minute walk away, were contemplating a

scene of devastation. A distraught villager

whose shop had been torched in a mob at-

tack over the weekend gestured at two in-

tact businesses among the charred ruins

lining the main street. “Look at that shop,

and that one,” he said. “Their owners are

Kazakh. They didn’t touch them. Only the

Dungans’ shops.”

On the night of February 7th Kazakhs

armed with hunting rifles, iron bars, sticks

and stones went on the rampage in Masan-

chi and nearby villages inhabited by Dun-

gans—Muslims of Chinese descent, who

have lived in Kazakhstan for centuries but

number just 72,000, or 0.4% of the popula-

tion. The spark for the violence seems to

have been a row between drivers about who

had the right of way. A rumour spread that

Dungans had attacked an old Kazakh man.

The attackers beat and shot Dungan villag-

ers and set fire to homes and businesses.

Ten people—nine Dungans, one Kazakh—

were killed; 178 were wounded, including

19 police officers. Some 24,000 people fled

to nearby Kyrgyzstan seeking refuge, al-

though many have since returned.

Such savagery is rare in Kazakhstan,

which considers itself a model of ethnic

harmony. It is home to more than 100 dif-

ferent minorities. Nursultan Nazarbayev,

the president from independence in 1991

until his resignation last year, who still

pulls the political strings, decreed this be-

wildering ethnic mix to be an essential part

of the national identity. His intention was

to reassure ethnic Russians, in particular,

who in 1991 were almost 40% of the popula-

tion (nowadays they are less than 20%). His

laudably inclusive stance helped ward off

ethnic strife—no small thing in Central

Asia. Hundreds died in communal clashes

in Kyrgyzstan in 2010, for instance.

But the ostrich-like taboo on discussing

ethnic tensions has not made them disap-

pear. Some Kazakhs, conscious that in So-

viet times they became a minority within

their own country, feel that they should

now be pre-eminent. Minorities, naturally,

feara surgeinKazakhnationalism,espe-

ciallysinceMrNazarbayev’ssemi-retire-

menthasintroducedanelementofuncer-

taintyintopolitics.

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Mr Nazar-

bayev’ssuccessor,hasreactedforcefully,

promisingthatthose guiltyof mobvio-

lencewillbe punishedand denouncing

“criminals”who “shoutpseudo-patriotic

slogans”.Yetmostofthe90-oddsuspects

arrestedduringtherampagehavebeenre-

leasedwithoutcharge,andtheauthorities

willnotsayhowmanyremainincustody.

KeepingbothKazakhsandminoritieshap-

pywhile dispensingsomethingthat re-

semblesjusticewillnotbeaneasytask. 7

MASANCHI

An ethnically motivated attack alarms

a multi-ethnic country

Ethnic tensions in Kazakhstan

Fire and fury

Extinguished,fornow

I

n mayNarendra Modi won a triumphant

second term as India’s prime minister,

with a thumping majority in the Lok Sabha,

the lower house of parliament. His Hindu

nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (bjp) did

especially well in Delhi. It grabbed all seven

of the National Capital Territory’s parlia-

mentary seats. Yet just nine months later,

in elections to the territory’s assembly on

February 11th, the bjpwon a scant eight out

of its 70 seats.

This drubbing may be dismissed as a

small dent in the Modi juggernaut. Delhi’s

20m people are less than 2% of India’s pop-

ulation, and the party that thrashed the bjp

is politically irrelevant beyond the city lim-

its. Even so, the vote represented an early

plebiscite, in a part of the country where

the bjphas deep roots, on the divisive so-

cial policies Mr Modi has adopted in his

second term, as well as on his handling of

an increasingly shaky economy. It also rep-

resented a test for a new, more aggressive

style of campaigning. At the hustings the

bjpdropped any pretence of inclusivity,

engaging instead in one of the loudest and

ugliest displays of sectarian bigotry ever

witnessed in Indian politics.

There are two obvious explanations for

the party’s slide. The one Mr Modi might

prefer is that Delhi’s voters draw an unusu-

ally stark distinction between national and

local elections. There is much truth to this.

The local Aam Aadmi Party (aap), a newish

political force that grew out of an anti-cor-

ruption movement and has run the city

since 2015, has cleaned up schools, built

hundreds of affordable local health centres

and curtailed petty graft. The image it pro-

jects is of folksy modesty with a social con-

science. But the aap’s symbol, a broom,

suggests better housekeeping. It does not

inspire voters, as Mr Modi does, with vi-

sions of national grandeur.

The last time Delhi-wallahs voted for

their local assembly, in 2015, the aapdid

even better, taking 67 out of 70 seats, again

just months after the bjphad snatched all

seven of the city’s parliamentary seats. And

it is true that despite its failure to increase

its seat tally substantially in this week’s

election, the bjpdid boost its vote share,

from just 32% to 39%. The aap’s share re-

mained much the same, at 54%.

Yet a world of difference separates the

two Delhi polls. In 2015 Mr Modi’s party was

also relatively fresh and inexperienced.

Now it is a behemoth. Not only does the bjp

enjoy the lion’s share of political funding

and command a pack of gleefully partisan

television stations. Its control of central

ministries gives it bullying rights over such

crucial institutions as the Delhi police and

the national election commission.

That the bjplost despite these advan-

tages suggests that at least some weight

should be given to the other explanation

for its poor showing: many voters were put

off by its campaign. The contest took place

against a backdrop of broad national un-

rest. This was precipitated by new citizen-

ship rules that many Indians, especially

minorities, fear will ultimately strip them

of rights and erode the secular principle of

equality before the law. Among many

forms of protest, one particularly noisy

challenge has been mounted by hundreds

of women in Shaheen Bagh, a working-

class, largely Muslim neighbourhood of

Delhi, who since mid-December have oc-

cupied a busy thoroughfare, refusing to

move until Mr Modi backs down. Thou-

sands of others have joined their round-

DELHI

The ruling party receives a drubbing

after a sectarian campaign

Elections in Delhi

Capital loss