Scientific American - USA (2020-03)

Million Metric Tons of CO

Equivalent 2

Emissions from: The Power Sector Homes Businesses Transportation Industry

2020 2030 2040 2050

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Business as usual

$25 carbon tax

$60 carbon tax

2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

East

North

Central

West

South Central

West

North

Central

East

South Central

Mid-

Atlantic

Mountain

New

England

South

Atlantic

Pacific

Census

Divisions

West South Central

East North Central

Mid-Atlantic

South Atlantic

Mountain

New England

East South Central

West North Central

-2 Pacific

2

0

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2030 2040 2050

2030 2040 2050

$25 Carbon Tax $60 Carbon Tax

Millions of Job Years*

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2020 2030 2040 2050

Energy-efficiency jobs

Net change

in jobs

No carbon tax

Energy-supply jobs

Millions of Job Years*

2020 2030 2040 2050

$25 Carbon Tax $60 Carbon Tax

84 Scientific American, March 2020

SOURCE: “WOULD A GREEN NEW DEAL ADD OR KILL JOBS?” BY MARILYN A. BROWN AND MAJID AHMADI, SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN.COM; DECEMBER 19, 2019

GRAPHIC SCIENCE

Text by Mark Fischetti | Graphics by Amanda Montañez

Carbon Taxes Boost Jobs

Construction and manufacturing careers would rise nationwide

Pundits have argued over whether a carbon tax would create

or kill jobs ever since the U.S. Green Party first floated the Green

New Deal, a plan to build a sustainable, environmentally clean

economy. In the past three years a number of U.S. legislators—

and Democratic presidential candidates—have released carbon-

tax plans or bills, with widely varying estimates about impacts

on jobs. Marilyn A. Brown and Majid Ahmadi of the Georgia

Institute of Technology put the Green New Deal’s details into

the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s National Energy

Modeling System to assess what would happen. They evaluated

a $25  and $60  tax on each metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted

by the U.S. energy system. Both scenarios would cut emissions

greatly, largely by pushing up the price of fossil fuels, thereby

encouraging industries and consumers to use cleaner energy

sources and improve energy efficiency. Perhaps unexpectedly,

the $25  tax would create more jobs than the $60  tax would.

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Go Down

Jobs Go Up

Jobs by Region

A $25 carbon tax would add an

extra 72 million job years (one

job for one year) across all nine

U.S. Census divisions, compared

with business as usual. A $60 tax

would also add jobs, though

not as many; the Pacific and

West North Central regions

would see losses through 2040

before increases arise.

Jobs by Type

Under a $25 carbon tax, traditional energy-supply jobs, such as fuels

or power generation, would decrease, but energy-efficiency jobs—

construction, manufacturing—would more than compensate, creating

a net gain ( green area ) of 4.2 million job years in 2050. A $60 tax would

cause greater supply-job losses, but efficiency-job gains would still

produce a net increase.

If the U.S. economy proceeds with “business as usual”—no carbon tax and no new energy regulations or policies—CO 2 emissions remain high or rise through 2050

in all sectors ( top line in each graph ). Under a $25 or $60 carbon tax, emissions drop significantly, especially in the power sector.

* One job for one year

© 2020 Scientific American