Car and Driver - USA (2020-04)

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This graph, a visualization of the
typical life cycle of an emerging
technology used by consulting
firm Gartner, is one way to think
about the path that new ideas often
traverse on the way from pipe dream
to necessity. So far, autonomous
driving is right on track. All it needs
is a moment of enlightenment.

Senior Vice President

at Magna

Sharath Reddy

“The industry

in general was

much more

optimistic,

I would say,

a couple years

back. We’ve

come to the

realization that

this is not an

easy problem

to solve.”

—

Former Engineering

Lead at Uber ATG

Jeff Schneider

“The pullback

in road testing

across the

industry is not

what will make

the technology

better. Those

who get back

on the road and

test will take

the lead.”

TALKING

HEADS

HYPE MACHINES

EX

PE

CT

AT

IO

NS

TIME

Innovation

Trigger

Trough of

Disillusionment

Plateau of

Productivity

Peak of Inflated

Expectations

Slo

pe

of

En

lig

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nmen

t

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The Department of Defense

runs a series of competitions

related to the development

of autonomous-driving

technology in 2004, 2005,

and 2007.

Tesla installs Autopilot as an

over-the-air update in some

Model Ss and Xs in October 2015.

A self-driving Uber

kills Elaine Herzberg

in March 2018.

Your guess is as good as ours.

Robotaxis,

TBD.

14 APRIL 2020 ~ CAR AND DRIVER