The EconomistAugust 10th 2019 451I
n marchthe House of Commons reject-
ed the idea of a no-deal Brexit by a hand-
some 43-vote margin. Yet this week Do-
minic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s
Svengali-like adviser, suggested that it was
now too late for mps to stop Britain leaving
without a deal on October 31st, the latest
Brexit deadline. This position was echoed
by a Downing Street spokesman and by the
health secretary, Matt Hancock, who was
previously strongly opposed to no-deal.
There are two parts to the argument.
The first is that October 31st is now the de-
fault option, legally binding on both Brit-
ain and the eu. In the absence of some spe-
cific action, such as agreeing to another
extension, Brexit will take place then. The
second is that, given the imminence of the
deadline, mps do not have enough power or
time to prevent no-deal—unless the gov-
ernment co-operates. And Mr Johnson will
not do that. Downing Street is threatening
to force a no-deal Brexit even if the prime
minister loses a no-confidence vote.Does he mean it? It would be sensible to
take the latest bluster with a pinch of salt.
Mr Johnson has two clear bargaining rea-
sons to talk up the risk of a no-deal Brexit
on October 31st. One is to ensure that Brus-
sels takes the notion seriously, which it did
not when Theresa May was prime minister.
That should raise the pressure on the euto
drop its refusal to reopen the withdrawal
agreement. The second is to win back vot-
ers from Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, who
positively favour no-deal. The Tories’ loss
of the Brecon by-election on August 1st
confirmed that, even under Mr Johnson,
they are still vulnerable to Mr Farage.
Even so, a clear majority of mps still op-
pose no-deal. Opinion polls suggest most
voters are against it as well. Although Mr
Johnson has required all his ministers to
sign up to the possibility, several are
known to have been fretful about the con-
sequences, including Michael Gove, who is
in charge of preparing for it. Some two-
dozen Tory rebels have indicated that theyare ready to join any cross-party efforts to
stop a no-deal Brexit. They include several
of Mrs May’s former cabinet ministers, no-
tably Philip Hammond, David Gauke, Greg
Clark and David Lidington.
Yet there are big hurdles in the way of at-
tempts to prevent a no-deal Brexit. Some
look back to March, when mps succeeded
in hijacking the Commons agenda, which
is usually controlled by the government, to
pass an act requiring Mrs May to seek an ex-
tension of the Article 50 Brexit deadline.
But this was possible only with the peg of
legislation or an amendable motion. Mr
Johnson’s team say neither will be needed
or allowed before October 31st.
Are there other routes? Chris White, a
former adviser to Tory whips now at New-
ington Communications, reports talk in
Westminster of using emergency debates
or opposition days. Rebel mps expect help
from the speaker, John Bercow, who seems
willing to tear up normal procedural rules
if need be. But the government will not al-
low any opposition days. The shortage of
parliamentary time acts in its favour—few-
er than 30 sitting days are planned before
October 31st (rebels are therefore seeking a
way to cancel the autumn recess). And
there is no majority for the drastic option
of revoking the Article 50 Brexit letter.
Such uncertainties explain why many
mps now talk of a vote of no confidence.
The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, prom-No-deal BrexitCan Parliament stop it?
The government claims mps cannot stop Britain leaving the European Union on
October 31st. Yet many are determined to tryBritain
46 5G in the Scottish islands
47 Bagehot: Theresa 2.0Also in this section