Speed Philippines – July 2019

COVER STORY

76 JULY 2019

NOW WHAT?

Huawei has repeatedly stated

that they have not and will not

spy on the American people for

China, but that is highly unlikely

to resolve its issues because, if

we’re to be blunt, the Trump ban

isn’t about national security—not

the primary reason, at least. The

ban is heavily shaped by Trump’s

trade war with China.

If China capitulates to Trump’s

demands and “makes a deal,”

Huawei’s problems could vanish

quickly. Trump has repeatedly

said that the issues over Huawei

Technologies could be included

as a part of the trade deal

with China. Oh, we’re sure the

White House will bluster about

obtaining promises and securities

that would ensure that Huawei

won’t be used by Beijing to spy

on people... but as George R.R.

Martin once wrote, words are

wind, and money is the true

impetus in this whole brouhaha.

As for Huawei, it’s not necessarily

the end for the Chinese company,

even if Trump’s ban becomes

permanent. Smartphone parts

can be sourced elsewhere or

developed by the company itself.

The U.S. is a big market, sure, but

there’s still the rest of the world—

and judging from the results

of Trump’s repeated warnings

not to tap Huawei’s 5G system

where most world leaders are

just downright ignoring Trump’s

counsel, the rest of the world

would remain open to the

Chinese telecom company.

Huawei would need to provide

a robust system of apps that

would replace Google Play, but

that’s doable. Kindle doesn’t have

a problem with its app offerings

despite going at it in its own way,

and that’s something that Huawei

can try to emulate.

Parts can be sourced, apps can

be designed, new markets can

be developed. What doesn’t kill

Huawei can make it stronger.

What’s more interesting is the

What If scenarios that can be

birthed by Trump’s ban.

What if China retaliates and

bans U.S. companies ala-Huawei

style? POOF! goes the 1.4

billion potential customers (not

to mention the second-fastest

growing economy) for Apple,

for Google, for all other U.S.

companies. What if China bans

the U.S. and stops selling them

rare earth metals? Now that

could be a headache. A trade

war—a real trade war—can be

economically interesting for the

rest of the world.

What if Huawei is only the first

and the U.S. bans other Chinese

tech companies? What if Huawei,

OPPO, Xiaomi, and other Chinese

phone companies band together

to develop their own OS and

various apps that would rival

Android and iOS? That’s a huge,

paradigm-shifting change to the

industry. The whole smartphone

market as we know it today

could change.

What if—and this is the real crazy

scenario—What if these spying

concerns about Huawei turns

out to be all true and as a result,

consumers all end up actively

concerned about their privacy?

Imagine a world where Facebook

doesn’t mine your data, where

Google doesn’t track everything

you do, where Alexa doesn’t

listen in on everything.

Now, that—that would be the

highway we’d gladly get on.

Parts can

be sourced,

apps can be

designed, new

markets can

be developed.

What doesn’t

kill Huawei

can make it

stronger.”