Outlook – July 28, 2019

ROLE NO MORE

34 OUTLOOK 29 July 2019

there is some time after the US with­

drawal, with a gradual worsening of the

situation in Afghanistan. “It saves

America’s face.”

Russia and China, adds Raghavan,

have their own interests in securing an

early American exit and getting

Pakistan to help ‘stabilise’ the post­

withdrawal situation in Afghanistan.

“This will put Pakistan in the driver’s

seat. The history of Pakistan’s

involvement in Afghanistan

should clearly remind us on

what is likely to come,”

Raghavan cautions.

The US and Pakistan had

joined hands with some Gulf

countries to create the Taliban

from among the Pashtun Afghan

students who grew up in the

refugee camps in the Af­Pak

border area, and who were ind­

octrinated in madrasas by fun­

damentalist Islamic preachers

in the mid­’90s.

T

HE Taliban’s presence in

Afghanistan had turned the

country stiflingly conserva­

tive and India was a neigh­

bour adversely affected by a

regime in Kabul that was tut­

ored by Pakistan.

With the Taliban and Pakistan

now back in the Afghan game

with US support, Indian con­

cerns on the evolving situation

in Afghanistan seem quite

well­founded.

The US’s bottom­line in

Afghanistan seems to ensure

that in future no terrorist att­

acks should target American

interests from Afghan soil. It is

also conveying to the Taliban

and others that even after its

withdrawal it continues to keep

an intelligence presence in the

country to monitor the develop­

ments. This could well be the core of its

negotiations with the Taliban—the

long­awaited withdrawal of American

troops and assets might begin once this

is assured.

Vivek Katju, former secretary in the

MEA, who also served as India’s ambas­

sador to Afghanistan, describes the

American negotiating position as “abs­

urd”, even as he feels that India should

have engaged with the Taliban, like

other countries, to ensure it is not out of

the loop in the Afghan developments.

“The whole world is talking to the

Taliban. What do we gain by ignoring

them?” he asks. He too admits that the

Americans were conceding too much to

the Taliban. For instance, at the recent

‘intra­Afghan’ meeting in Doha, the

Taliban were the only ones which came

as a ‘group’, while all others, including

key officials of the Afghan government,

attended the meeting in their personal

capacity. “It looks more like the terms

of a surrender being negotiated by the

US,” says Katju.

Many others also share the view that

India should have engaged with the

Taliban. But as Mukhopadhaya points

out, while the Taliban is a player in

Afghanistan, it cannot be allowed to call

the shots on the future shape of the

country. He also feels that the Taliban’s

role in Afghanistan has been more

hyped than is demanded by reality.

Despite being criticised, he points out,

the Afghan National Army had not

conceded any important provincial

capital to the Taliban, which has man­

aged to control only 30 per cent of

Afghanistan after its incessant cam­

paigns of ultra­violence. the Taliban, he

stresses, is also much hated and

most non­Pashtun Afghans are

suspicious of it since it is backed

by Pakistan.

Mukhopadhaya expresses the

hope that democracy and a

comparatively open society

have struck deep roots amongst

Afghans in the past 18 years.

Therefore, even if the Taliban

tries to laterally intrude into the

political centrestage by ignor­

ing the constitution and the

election process, it will be

strongly resisted. He also feels

that India, which continues to

be very popular among different

sections of Afghans, should

support the elected government

and the constitution that, des­

pite heavy odds, have managed

to bring significant changes.

Katju concurs with

Mukhopadhaya about India’s

enduring popularity in Afgh­

anistan. But he feels that the

ground reality is such that there

is very little New Delhi could do

to alter the current course.

Raghavan, too, is for a more

proactive role for India, like

convening a meeting of the

Afghan groups. “But it may be

too late to make any serious

headway,” he admits.

No one expects the US’s pro­

tracted endgame in Afghanistan

to be smooth. Some fear another

long spell of violence and insta­

bility after the Americans withdraw.

But, as Katju observes, there is also a

positive note to it: “Irrespective of how

marginalised India may look now, no

new regime in Kabul can afford to ign­

ore it. It will have to engage with New

Delhi for stability and development.”

Whether that optimism has any basis

in reality will be proven by the latest

contours of Afghanistan’s tortuous path

to normality. O

“The US attempt

to make a pact

with the Taliban,

whose role is

over-hyped,

will be counter-

productive.”

Gautam Mukhopadhaya

Former envoy to Afghanistan

“Irrespective of

how marginalised

India looks, no new

Kabul regime can

afford to ignore

India for the sake

of stability.”

Vivek Katju

Former envoy to Afghanistan

“Russia, China

have their own

interests in

securing a US exit.

Pakistan’s Afghan

history reminds us

what to expect.”

Srinath Raghavan

Strategic writer