The Guardian - 31.07.2019

Section:GDN 1N PaGe:9 Edition Date:190731 Edition:01 Zone: Sent at 30/7/2019 20:39 cYanmaGentaYellowbl

Wednesday 31 July 2019 The Guardian •

9

▼ Boris Johnson at Shervington Farm

near Newport, where he was unable to

say what help farmers may receive

PHOTOGRAPH: ADRIAN DENNIS/REUTERS

to leave with no deal .“I’d want him to

stop playing Russian roulette with the

industry,” she said.

Roberts said she did not want to see

a mass slaughter for welfare reasons

and that the government needed to

get cold storage in place and talk about

public procurement of lamb meat.

Asked about whether farmers

would resort to civil unrest such as

using tractors to block roads, she said:

“I think they will. It is time to stand up

for ourselves ... I suspect there will be

protests.”

Minette Batters , the president of

the National Farmers Union, said

there would be no market for 40%

of the UK’s lamb meat in the event

of a no-deal Brexit. “You would be in

oversupply because you wouldn’t be

able to get over the barrier of a tariff to

Europe,” she said.

She said a mass slaughter was the

last thing the NFU wanted but, to avoid

that, the government would need to

look at forcing hospitals, schools and

other public bodies to buy lamb meat.

Alun Cairns , the Welsh secretary,

agreed that farming was a winner from

having access to EU markets but said

there was potential for exports to

new markets. Asked for his response

to threats of civil unrest, he claimed

UK farmers could export their meat

to Japan rather than Europe.

“I would say we are working to

get a deal and the European market

is important to us but there are mar-

kets around the world,” he told BBC

Radio 4’s Today programme. “Wales

has voted to leave the EU ... we have

an obligation to leave and of course

we would much prefer to leave with

a deal .”

Last week, research commissioned

by the Agriculture and Horticulture

Development Board and Quality

Meat Scotland found that combined

beef and sheep meat exports to the

EU could decline by 92.5%, with the

lamb export trade “almost completely

wiped out”.

In a no-deal scenario, the 37,

carcasses a week that are usually sent

to Europe would be stopped over-

night under strict EU import rules that

require de facto licensing for all farm

exports. This has led to suggestions

of a mass cull of animals as well as the

need for state aid to support farmers.

Corbyn climate alert

PM’s Trump ties ‘dangerous’

Nazia Parveen

North of England correspondent

Boris Johnson’s close relationship with

Donald Trump could be dangerous for

the environment, with both leaders

putting “short-term economic gains”

ahead of longer term climate issues,

Jeremy Corbyn has warned.

The Labour leader made his

comments after meeting fracking pro-

testers in Blackpool, where he called

on Johnson to impose an immediate

ban on shale gas extraction.

Corbyn has said the prime minis-

ter’s “close alignment” with the US

president could bring disaster for the

planet, and that the government will

continue to miss climate change tar-

gets if no changes are made to strategy.

Corbyn said: “ Unless there is a real

intervention by government on frack-

ing, on measurements of emissions

on aircraft and shipping ... then we

are deluding ourselves that we are

adhering to climate change targets.

Since [Johnson] ... is closely aligned

with Trump, who claims that the Paris

climate change accords are a danger to

the American economy ... well, your

short-term economic interests come

ahead of longer term environmental

issues.”

He warned of the dangers of frack-

ing as he met protesters at the UK’s

only active shale gas extraction site,

at Preston New Road, Lancashire ,

the focus of long-running protests by

green groups. He called for an imme-

diate ban on fracking.

The government has said shale

gas could be “a new domestic energy

source”. But Labour says the UK may

miss net-zero carbon targets by 2050

if it goes on exploiting gas reserves.

Corbyn said Labour would focus on a

“green industrial revolution”.

The Department of Business,

Energy and Industrial Strategy said:

“Independent climate experts have

recognised that natural gas has a role

to play as we meet our 2050 net zero

emissions target: now fi rmly set in law.

“Exploring the potential of a new

domestic energy source is not only

compatible with these world-leading

climate goals, it could also deliver sub-

stantial economic benefi ts .”

Journal Aditya Chakrabortty Page 1 

No-deal Brexit

What might happen and could it be stopped?

Leaving the EU without a deal seems

increasingly possible on 31 October.

How could a no-deal Brexit happen?

And what would it mean?

How might no deal occur?

No deal is the default – without

a withdrawal agreement in place

it takes place automatically on

31 October. A new deal seems

increasingly unlikely given that

Boris Johnson and his ministers

have demanded terms – scrapping

the Irish backstop and an entirely

new withdrawal deal – that have

been repeatedly rejected by Brussels

and would be hugely ambitious

anyway given the 93-day deadline.

Could it be stopped?

It seems a majority of MPs still

oppose a no-deal departure. But it

is no t known if the Commons can

block Johnson if he is intent on such

a Brexit. Some in Westminster see a

government intent on no deal being

blocked by parliament as Johnson’s

preferred scenario – allowing him

to call an election as the self- styled

champion of Brexit.

What does ‘ no deal ’ actually mean?

At 11pm UK time on 31 October the

UK would, by default, become a

“third country” in terms of relations

with the EU, with no post-Brexit

plan in place, and no transition

period. This would drop the UK out

of countless arrangements, pacts

and treaties, from tariff s to the

movement of people, foodstuff s

and data, to specifi c deals such

as aviation, policing and security.

Without an overall withdrawal

agreement each element would

need to be agreed. The UK would

trade with the EU on default terms

of the World Trade Organi zation.

What impact would there be?

T his is a leap in the dark, given the

multiplicity of factors involved,

but a number of sectors are deeply

worried. With meat farming, there

would be an immediate WTO 40%

tariff on exports to the EU. Other

UK fi rms that export to the EU

would need to apply for customs,

excise and VAT procedures. Delays

due to border checks would have

knock-on eff ects for fi rms reliant

on a constant stream of supplies.

There are concerns about supplies

of medicines , and the potential that

travellers to the EU might need to go

through extra checks.

Are we ready?

The government began preparing

for a possible no deal before the

original Brexit deadline in March,

passing legislation to cover areas

such as nuclear material, money

laundering and road haulage.

Planning has been stepped up

under Johnson, with Michael Gove

handed a cross-government cabinet

role. Sajid Javid , the chancellor,

has promised extra funds and

could put together an autumn

budget intended to rejuvenate the

economy. The government is also

reportedly spending up to £100m on

an advertising campaign on how to

prepare for a no-deal Brexit.

What about the Irish border?

There would be checks of

some form, whatever the UK

government’s insistence that it will

not impose any infrastructure. As

Ireland has pointed out repeatedly ,

it cannot remain a part of the

EU’s single market and allow the

un monitored fl ow of goods across

what will then become a customs,

standards and regulation border.

How would it aff ect other plans?

This is a question which the

Johnson government has, as yet,

not answered, particularly in the

context of the many tax cuts and

spending plans so far unveiled.

Much of this has been based on

the idea of using some or all of the

£26bn or so of “fi scal headroom”

• extra borrowing that would be
  permitted within current limits – to
  pay for this. However, Treasury
  forecasts say this money would
  evaporate in the economic hit of no
  deal. On the campaign trail Johnson
  said the government could instead
  use the £39bn divorce settlement
  with the EU. However, this is not a
  credible plan, as the sum covers a
  series of agreed UK commitments.

Would it mean Brexit is fi nally over?

The UK could not trade perpetually

on WTO terms and would need

to make a permanent trade deal

with the EU – involving just the

same issues as before. The main

diff erence is that this would all need

to happen as quickly as possible,

without the buff er of a transition

period running to the end of 2020.

Peter Walker

 Jeremy Corbyn

meets protesters

at Cuadrilla’s

fracking site in

Lancashire. He

warned of the UK

missing climate

change targets

PHOTOGRAPH:

CHRISTOPHER

THOMOND/GUARDIAN

nomy. The government is also

Meat would

face a 40%

export tariff

‘No details were

given about new or

alternative markets’

Welsh government

spokesperson

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