Financial Times Europe - 26.07.2019

2 FINANCIAL TIMES Friday26 July 2019

devastation wrought byHurricane

Mariain 2017.

The messages sparked hugeprotests

in the capital San Juan. Mr Rosselló had

refused to quit but reversed course after

the legislature vowed to impeach him.

Puerto Rico has been reeling econom-

ically since Hurricane Maria wreaked

destruction on the island of 3.2m peo-

ple. The government had come under

criticism forpower cuts after the storm

and for playing down the death toll.

After sayingfewer than 100had died, it

increased its estimateto almost 3,000.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Demo-

cratic congresswoman from New York

who is half Puerto Rican, said the resig-

nation of the governor was “a triumph

for the people of Puerto Rico”.

“Through unprecedented direct

action, they successfully changed their

leadership and demanded accountabil-

ity,” she wrote on Twitter.

Bondholders welcomed theresigna-

tion, with the US commonwealth’s gen-

eral obligation bonds maturing in 2035

hovering near a three-month high.

GIDEON LONG— BOGOTA

DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO— WASHINGTON

COLBY SMITH— NEW YORK

Puerto Rico’s residents and bondhold-

ers have welcomed the resignation of

the US territory’s governor, which

came following days of street protests

sparked by the leak of text messages in

which Ricardo Rosselló and his inner

circle made derogatory comments

about the island’s inhabitants.

Mr Rosselló said he would stay for nine

days to ensure an “orderly transition”

before handing power to Wanda

Vásquez, secretary of justice, on

August 2. “I hope this decision will serve

as a call to citizen reconciliation,” he

said. He gaveno apology for his actions.

The scandal broke two weeks ago

when the island’s Center for Investiga-

tive Journalism released thousands of

messages between Mr Rosselló and

close aides that were sent on Telegram,

the instant messaging service.

The texts included misogynistic and

anti-gay language and jokes about the

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INTERNATIONAL

ROMAN OLEARCHYK— KIEV

HENRY FOY— MOSCOW

Ukraine has detained and searched a

Russian ship it said was involved in last

year’s naval clash between the two

countries in the Black Sea, in a move

likely to increase tension between Mos-

cow and Kiev.

Ukraine’s SBU state security service

said yesterday it had boarded the Rus-

sian commercial tanker, the Nika Spirit,

in the port of Izmail near the country’s

border with Romania. The SBU said it

was gathering evidence relating to the

vessel’s involvement in the November

clash, whenMoscow attacked and

seized three Ukrainian naval shipsand

their 24 crewmen.

The tanker’s 10 crew were released

after questioning and are returning

home to Russia, according to the coun-

try’s embassy in Ukraine, after Russia’s

foreign ministry warned Kiev of “conse-

quences” if it was found to have broken

international law.

The detention of the ship is the first

big flashpoint between Moscow and

Kiev sinceVolodymyr Zelenskywas

elected Ukraine’s president in April.

The countries have been in a state of

conflict since Russia annexed Crimea in

2014 and fomented a separatist war in

Ukraine’s far east.

Relations have soured further since

the naval clash, which both sides blame

on each other.

“We are looking into the circum-

stances of the incident before taking

proper measures. If this amounts to tak-

ing Russians hostage, this will be quali-

fied as a blatant violation of interna-

tional law and consequences will not be

long in coming,” Russia’s foreign minis-

try said in a statement before the crew-

men were released.

Russia’s embassy in Kiev wrote in a

tweet: “The crew of the Russian tanker

in the port of Izmail is going home. The

ship itself remains in Ukraine.”

The SBU said the tanker, which was

previously named Neyma, had been

used in the November incident off the

coast of Crimea to prevent the three

Ukrainian ships from passing under the

Kerch bridge, which connects the penin-

sula to mainland Russia.

“The above named vessel is consid-

ered to be a piece of material evidence,”

the SBU said in a statement. “A petition

to a court for its seizure is being pre-

pared.”

The incident will test the geopolitical

skills of Mr Zelensky, a former come-

dian and political novice, whocemented

powerin the country when his Servant

of the People party won an outright rul-

ing majority in Sunday’s parliamentary

elections.

It also risks derailing tentative talks

over a deal to return the Ukrainian sail-

ors, who have been imprisoned in

Russia since last year’s clash, and negoti-

ations over the exchange of scores of

prisoners held by both sides, as well as

Russia-backed separatists controlling

breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine.

Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of

the foreign affairs committee in Russia’s

upper house, called on Ukraine’s presi-

dent to clarify whether he agreed with

the seizure.

“Mr Zelensky's position needs an

immediate explanation. Which is the

real Ukraine? When it continues sabre-

rattling or when it seeks peace?” asked

Mr Kosachev.

JIM PICKARD AND ANNA GROSS

LONDON

The prospect of a UK general election is

looming large after Boris Johnson, the

new prime minister, signalled his deter-

mination to leave the EU by the sched-

uled departure date of October 31 “no ifs

or buts”.

But while Mr Johnson and his new

cabinet might view an election as a way

to break the Westminster deadlock over

Brexit or eliminate the electoral threats

posed by Labour and Nigel Farage’s

Brexit party, the path to a conclusive

victory is fraught with pitfalls.

There are two scenarios that could

thrust Britain into its third general elec-

tion in five years.

Scenario 1: Brexit thwarted

Mr Johnson insists he wants to negotiate

a new Brexit deal with the EU and push

it through parliament in time to leave by

October 31. While he wants to jettison

the controversial “Irish backstop” in the

current withdrawal agreement, negoti-

ated by his predecessor Theresa May

and rejected three times by MPs, it is not

clear what alternative would be accepta-

ble to both London and Brussels.

Failure either to agree a deal with the

EU orto push a new deal through parlia-

ment could persuade Mr Johnson to

pursue a no-deal Brexit, an option he

has vowed to pursue if necessary.Since

becoming prime minister he has repeat-

edly vowed to step up no-deal prepara-

tions to show the EU he is serious.

Blocked by EU leaders who won’t

budge on the backstop and by Europhile

MPs in parliamentopposed to a no-deal,

Mr Johnson may then be left with little

choice but to opt for a general election.

Ben Page, chief executive of polling

company Ipsos Mori, said: “I would say

that it’s more likely he won’t get a mate-

rially different deal in negotiations, or

through parliament, and he will need to

put it [no-deal Brexit] to the country.”

Under this plan, Mr Johnson could

seekan informal alliance with Mr

Farage, presenting theprime minister

with a chance to secure a decent major-

ity to then force Brexit through the

House of Commons.

Labour, which would campaign on

issues such as public spending and end-

ing austerity, could lose votes by

appearing to sit on the fence over Brexit

— in contrast to smaller, actively pro-

Remain parties such as the Liberal

Democrats. But anything is possible in

the febrile atmosphere at Westminster.

Mrs May went to the country in the

spring of 2017 expecting a landslide:

instead she lost the Tories their overall

majority.

Cabinet ministers with small majori-

ties — who could be vulnerable to a

reversal — include Theresa Villiers,

Amber Rudd, Alok Sharma, Alister Jack

as well as Mr Johnson himself.

Scenario 2: Brexit delivered

For all of Mr Johnson’s optimism, his

supporters admit that securing a

smooth Brexit by October 31 is a tricky

proposition: it involves the EU’s 27 lead-

ers giving ground, Eurosceptic Tory MPs

swallowing any compromise with the

EU and MPs backing the deal.

In this seemingly unlikely scenario,

Mr Johnson could emerge as the states-

man who finally delivered the EU refer-

endum result against all the odds.

He would be keen to cement the deal

with a general election, in which he

would campaign to open the public

spending taps and take advantage of Mr

Corbyn’s waning popularity.

Another way Mr Johnson could

deliver the UK out of the EU would be if

he fails to get a deal, pursues a no-deal

Brexit and somehow sidesteps attempts

by Remain-leaning MPs to block the

plan. “Just because a Commons major-

ity wants to block no-deal doesn’t mean

that they can find a mechanism to do

so,” said one figure in the Johnson camp.

The former chancellor Philip Ham-

mond, who quit ahead of Mr Johnson’s

brutal reshuffle on Wednesday, has said

he will do all in his power to stop the UK

leaving the EU without a deal.

Many experts and business leaders

are afraid that leaving without a deal

could unleash economic chaos. But the

political dividend for Mr Johnson would

be to render the Brexit party redundant.

Under this scenario, a “hard Brexit”

Tory party would be expected to lose

some seats in Scotland and south-west

England — meaning it would need to

gain seats in Leave-voting areas of the

Midlands and northern England.

Robert Hayward, a Tory psephologist,

believes the chances of a snap election

have risen but are still under 50 per

cent.One Tory MP in a marginal seat

saidcolleagues were“worried” about an

electionbecause “you throw the dice in

the air... and anything could happen”.

But others are more sanguine. “All I

would say is that I feel more confident

taking the risk under the new leader-

ship, when there’s a sense of momentum

and fresh leadership,” said one.

Editorial Commentpage 8

Philip Stephenspage 9

IAN MOUNT— MADRID

Spain’s caretaker prime minister Pedro

Sánchez has failed to win MPs’ backing

for a new government for a second time

within three days, setting the clock

ticking towards fresh elections and

fuelling political uncertainty in one of

Europe’s best-performing economies.

Mr Sánchez, leader of the centre-left

PSOE socialists who won Spain’s elec-

tion in April, was unable to agree a coali-

tion with the far-left Podemos party.

Podemos abstainedyesterday in a vote

on putting Mr Sánchez into office, leav-

ing him short of the support he needed.

“With the current parliamentary ari-

thmetic, agreements are needed,” Mr

Sánchez said in parliament. “And an

agreement has not been possible.”

A new poll could still be avoided if Mr

Sánchez can strike a deal with Podemos

within the next two months, something

Podemos suggested could happen after

they dropped a demand to be handed

control of the labour ministry as part of

a coalition. Other parties could also try

to put together a government.

His candidacy was rejected by 155

votes to 124 with 67 abstentions. PSOE

has 123 MPs in Spain’s 350-seat parlia-

ment and would have been able to form

a government with the support of

Podemos’s 42 MPs and the promised

abstention of several Basque and Cata-

lan nationalist parties.

Podemos leaders accused the social-

ists of offering only “decorative” govern-

ment roles in talks between the parties.

Theyabstained inyesterday’s vote

after the PSOE would not increase its

offer of a deputy premier in charge of

social issues and ministry posts oversee-

ing housing, healthcare and equality.

In parliament yesterday, Mr Sánchez

accused Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias

of being more interested in power than

policy and of aiming to create a parallel

Podemos government instead of a coali-

tion with the socialists.Mr Iglesias

blamed the failed vote on Mr Sánchez

for not starting coalition talks until last

week instead of soon after general elec-

tions were held in April.

The socialists had preferred to lead a

minority government with outside sup-

port from Podemos, an arrangement Mr

Iglesias’s party refused. Mr Iglesias also

blamed the socialists for leaking the

negotiations in an attempt to weaken

Podemos.

“It’s hard to negotiate a coalition gov-

ernment in 48 hours when you did not

want to negotiate it for 80 days, and

while everything is being leaked to the

press,” Mr Iglesias said. “Government

negotiation at the very least needs to not

be vulgar.” While he dropped a demand

to lead the labour ministry, he said his

party would still want control over poli-

cies such as training for the jobless and

underemployed.

Mr Sánchez lost a first vote by 170 to

124 with 52 abstentions on Tuesday. If

neither Mr Sánchez and Mr Iglesias nor

the opposition can win enough votes to

form a government within two months,

Spain will be forced back to the polls in

November, the fourth general election

since 2015.

Mr Sánchez took office at the head of a

minority government last year after

ousting conservative Mariano Rajoy in a

parliamentary confidence vote.

Heightened tension

Ukraine seizes Russian tanker over clash

Kiev says ship was used

in Black Sea incident to

prevent vessels’ passage

‘Which is the real

Ukraine? When it

continues sabre-rattling

or when it seeks peace?’

Coalition bid

Spain edges

closer to polls

after Sánchez

fails again to

win support

Britain.Two scenarios

Election in view

as Johnson shows

Brexit resolve

New PM may see ballot as way

to break impasse but path to

convincing win is far from easy

Fresh

leadership:

Boris Johnson,

the new UK

prime minister,

makes a

statement to

MPs yesterday

Jessica Taylor

‘You throw

the dice in

the air and

anything

could

happen’

US territory

Puerto Ricans welcome

resignation of governor

scale of Chinese purchases of US goods,

and measures to rein in Chinese indus-

trial subsidies, forced technology trans-

fer and intellectual property theft.

“When President Trump saw the China

talks had not progressed to the point of

doing a deal, he called meand said it

looks like we’re going to have to support

our farmers again,” Mr Perdue said.

The direct payments under the gov-

ernment’s Market Facilitation Program

would be made in three tranches this

summer, autumn and winter, said Rob-

ert Johansson, chief economist at the US

Department of Agriculture. Unlike the

first round of payments, which favoured

producers of soyabeans and pork, the

new programme will pay crop farmers

$15-$150 an acre based on the estimated

impact of tariffs across their county.

When the administrationgave out-

lines of the new package in May,farmers

were struggling with waterlogged fields.

The availability of government-backed

crop insurance and a separate bill to aid

farmers hit by adverse weather affected

their decisions what to plant.

GREGORY MEYER— NEW YORK

The Trump administration has

increased federal aid to US farmers

who have been hit by its trade dispute

with China, buying time with an impor-

tant rural constituency as negotiations

with Beijing drag on.

The second round of bailout payments

since 2018 will cost $16bn, including

$14.5bn in direct payments to producers

of crops and meats such as soyabeans

and pork. The value was based on the

maximum amount China and other

trading partners could have imported

over the past 10 years, officials said.

The administration last year author-

ised $12bn in assistance to farmers as

China, Canada, Mexico and other trad-

ing partners imposed retaliatory tariffs.

Sonny Perdue, US agriculture secretary,

previously saidhe did not expect

another programme this year.

That changed in May, after the US and

China clashed over how Beijing would

codify any commitments into domestic

law, as well as other issues, such as the

Bailouts

US increases aid for farmers

hit by China trade dispute

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Direttore Responsabile in Italia: I.M.D.Srl-Marco Provasi -

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Direttore Responsabile in Italia: I.M.D.Srl-Marco Provasi -

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Owner, The Financial Times Limited; Rappresentante e

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Owner, The Financial Times Limited; Rappresentante e

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153, Monza, 20900, Milan. Tel. +39 039 28288201153, Monza, 20900, Milan. Tel. +39 039 28288201У

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a Stampa S.r.l., Via Michelangelo Buonarroti,

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a Stampa S.r.l., Via Michelangelo Buonarroti,

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Barber. Responsible for advertising content, Jon Slade.

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VK.COM/WSNWS

Via G. Puecher, 2 20037 Paderno Dugnano (MI), Italy.

VK.COM/WSNWS

Via G. Puecher, 2 20037 Paderno Dugnano (MI), Italy.

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VK.COM/WSNWS

Milano n. 296 del 08/05/08 - Poste Italiane SpA-Sped. in

Abb.Post.DL. 353/2003 (conv. L. 27/02/2004-n.46) art. 1

VK.COM/WSNWS

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ermont Impresion, Avenida de Alemania 12, CTC,

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ermont Impresion, Avenida de Alemania 12, CTC,

28821, Coslada, Madrid.

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28821, Coslada, Madrid.