154 International Relations Theory of War
ESTIMATION OF TERRITORIAL OUTCOMES OF WARS OF
POLAR POWERS
The conclusions concerning the degree of territorial expansion of polar
powers at the end of wars between countries in which they participate
correspond with the study assumption. In the three instances of bipolarity,
in 1816–1848, 1871–1909, and 1946–1991, all wars between the countries
involving the polar powers, or the two superpowers constituting each of
the three instances, ended in maintaining the territorial status quo that
preceded the war. In the single instance of unipolarity, 1992–2016, all wars
between countries in which the polar power, or the sole hyperpower con-
stituting that instance, ended in the hyperpower’s territorial expansion.
In the two instances of multipolarity, 1849–1870 and 1910–1945, when the
territorial outcome of expansion of the polar power could not position
the expanding power as a potential hegemon in the system, the system
allowed the polar power to expand at the end of the war—such as the
territorial expansion of Prussia in the Germany unification wars. When a
territorial outcome of expansion of the polar power could have positioned
the expanding power as a potential hegemon in the system, the system
prevented the expansion of the polar power at the end of the war (i.e., the
system dictated a status quo or territorial contraction of the polar power
at the end of the war—such as the territorial contraction of Germany in
the First and the Second World Wars and of Japan at the end of the Second
World War).
Table 5.2 concentrates the degree of territorial expansion of the polar
powers at the end of the wars between countries in which they partici-
pated under the three different polarity models and shows the degree of
correlation between the results and the forecast of the international relations
theory of war.
Under the two multipolar systems that were examined, lasting 58 years
in total, 1849–1870 and 1910–1945, a total of 18 wars involving the polar
powers constituting them were fought—two central wars, seven major
wars, and nine small wars. In total, there were 80 types of territorial expan-
sion in those years—36 of them, 45 percent of the total number of changes,
ended in territorial expansion of the polar power; 38 of them, 48 percent
of all changes, ended in territorial contraction of the polar power; and six
of them, 7 percent of all changes, ended in preservation of the territorial
status quo preceding the war. As the study anticipated, about half of the
territorial expansion types ended in territorial expansion and about half
ended in territorial contraction.
Under the three instances of the bipolar systems that were studied,
which lasted 118 years in total, 1816–1848, 1871–1909, and 1946–1991, there
were a total of five wars involving the polar powers constituting them.