The Distribution of Power and International Outcomes: Conclusions 157
neoconservatism principles. This view of the use of U.S. military and eco-
nomic power for imposing liberal democratic regimes upholding human
rights as a means of disseminating world peace was finally realized by
President George W. Bush in two wars that the United States waged far
from its homeland—in Afghanistan in 2001 and in Iraq in 2003.
The Afghanistan and Iraq Wars had significant regional consequences.
Firstly, they shattered the balance of power in the Persian Gulf, leading to
the rise of the status of Iran, for which it was a windfall. It was Washing-
ton that eliminated the ideological threat against the ayatollahs’ regime
from the east by the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, and it later removed
the military threat posed against Teheran from the west by Saddam Hus-
sein’s regime in Iraq. Thus, through elimination of the power of its former
adversaries and without acquiring new military power, Iran soared to a
strong, threatening regional status, resulting in an increase in the historical
hostility between Sunni and Shia.
Another influence of no lesser effect was the democratic bang that Pres-
ident George W. Bush wished to instigate throughout the Middle East,
which eventually worked, but only after he finished his term of office and
had unintended consequences.
The voting of Barack Obama into power as president in January 2009
gave new spirit to seekers of peace and freedom worldwide. The Cairo
address that Obama gave in June that year talked of the need to spread
democracy and human rights in the Arab and Muslim world. The “Arab
Spring,” which broke out about a year later, expressed the ambitions of
many residents of the region to replace oppressive regimes with more
open and liberal political systems.
The political about-turn of President Obama and his abstention from
military involvement in the Middle East led a great degree to the deteri-
oration of the Arab Spring into a serious regional crisis, which instead
of leading to the welcome change of “spreading democracy and human
rights” had many adverse consequences. Obama relinquished Egyptian
ally President Hosni Mubarak, resulting in Egypt entering a chaotic period
that included two coups. U.S. and Western operations in Libya eventu-
ally led to the downfall of the President Muammar Gaddafi regime and
the breakdown of the state. Following the civil war, Syria became a failed
state with no effective government in which many radical forces—such as
the Islamic State, armed rebel groups, and Hezbollah—fought alongside
regional and global powers, including Turkey, Iran, the United States, and
primarily Russia.
However, the war in Syria has also caused one of the worst humani-
tarian crises of modern times, leading to the deaths of about half a mil-
lion people. Obama’s leading from behind policy,^4 which did not change
even after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons, con-
tributed greatly to the influx of refugees that is sweeping over European