8 International Relations Theory of War
is what international systems exist?^16 The fourth question is what interna-
tional systems are stable and which are destabilized,^17 or in other words,
which systems tend to peace and which tend to war?^18 The fifth question is
what is the factor that affects the conduct of the international system—the
system or the players constituting it?^19
WHY DO WARS BREAK OUT? STRUCTURAL
THEORETICAL RESEARCH
The forces that cause powers to wage wars and influence the territorial
results of wars in which they are involved also affect the security of indi-
vidual countries and that of the entire system.
For individual countries operating in the international system, these
two forces determine both the lethality of wars and the number of wars in
which they will be involved, according to their standing in the system—
polar powers or countries or powers that are not polar powers. In addi-
tion, they determine the territorial results of the wars in which they will
participate. According to the theory, in bipolar systems, the territorial out-
comes of wars in which two superpowers constituting the system will be
involved is preservation of the status quo ante bellum preceding the out-
break of the war. In this context, one can treat the wars of the two super-
powers, the United States and the Soviet Union, during the bipolar system
of the 20th century, 1946–1991: the wars of the United States against Korea,
Vietnam, and Iraq (1991), and the Soviet invasion of Hungary and war
against Afghanistan. All these wars ended with a return to the territorial
status quo that preceded the outbreak of the wars.
At the same time, the factors that affect the territorial outcomes of wars
may shape the entire international system. The formation of certain inter-
national systems greatly depends on the extent to which leaders under-
stand the forces acting on the system. Bismarck, who correctly assessed
the extent to which the multipolar system of 1849–1870 would allow him
to expand territorially, led Prussia to unite with the German states in three
wars,^20 and the result was the formation of the united German state based
on Prussia, its predecessor. The outcome of Bismarck’s conduct was the
formation of the bipolar system of 1871–1909, headed by Great Britain and
Germany as the two superpowers of the system. In the same manner, the
collapse of certain international systems closely depends on the extent
to which leaders, primarily the leaders of the polar powers, understand
the forces acting on the system; the leader of Nazi Germany erred when
he assumed that the multipolar system of 1910–1945 would allow him to
expand territorially. Owing to that mistake, he led his country to defeat,
which to a great extent caused the collapse of the multipolar system and
the formation of a bipolar system on its ruins.