CHAPTER 1
War—Theory and Analysis
of Results
The international relations theory of war does not attempt to explain the
behavior of countries but to provide a retrospective causative-systemic
explanation and predict, or forecast from the outset, the outcomes of their
behavior. The theory discusses two of the most important international out-
comes in international relations research in general and the field dealing
with research of the war institute in particular.
The stability of the three possible international system models is the systemic
international outcome that is assessed in studies that deal with the causes of
the outbreak of wars. It is defined by the number, frequency, duration, and
lethality of wars in which the polar powers that constitute the system in
the three possible polar models are involved. This outcome may assume
three values: stable systems, destabilized systems, or partly destabilized
systems.
The degree of territorial expansion of polar powers at the end of wars in which
they have participated is the intrasystemic international outcome that is assessed
in studies dealing with the causes of outcomes of wars. It manifests in one
or more of the following six possibilities, as long as they occur at the end of
the war rather than while it is being fought: conquest, annexation, cession,
secession, unification, or mandated territory. This outcome may assume
three values: territorial expansion, territorial contraction, or territorial sta-
tus quo ante bellum.
The international relations theory of war, as a systemic theory, is based on
an examination of wars in which polar powers are involved. These types
of wars form the basis of the theory because the international relations the-
ory is defined by them. The polar powers are the main contenders in the
international system. Their actions, primarily their wars, have great influ-
ence on the international system, much more than wars in which great
powers or small countries are involved have.^1