War—Theory and Analysis of Results 19
A system will be considered partly destabilized when the values of the
four parameters—the number, frequency, duration, and lethality of wars
involving the polar powers constituting the system, primarily the frequency
of wars parameter—are very low relative to those of a destabilized system
and very high relative to those of a stable system.
An examination of the systemic international outcome or stability of
international systems is conducted in research using an objective test,
which examines the number, frequency, duration, and lethality of wars
involving the polar powers constituting the system. According to the inter-
national relations theory of war, on the one hand, in different instances of
the same polarity models, the stability of the system will be similar and
consistent with the way in which the theory expects it to be; on the other
hand, in various instances of different polarity models, the stability of the
system will be different and will be consistent with the way in which the
theory anticipates it.
INTRASYSTEMIC INTERNATIONAL OUTCOMES
In theoretical international relations research, it is common to consider the
term expansion for describing the actions of acquisition of territories and
for describing the increase in economic influence and control. The cur-
rent study avoids this ambiguity by making a distinction between the two
components.
Expansion of influence in the case of polar powers is defined as a com-
prehensive action to expand economic influence and control, which
manifests in most cases in an activist foreign policy that includes pay-
ing attention to international events, expanding diplomatic missions, and
participating in the diplomacy of powers. Based on this definition, Fareed
Zakaria states that the Soviet Union expanded its influence in the 1970s,
although for practical purposes it did not occupy any parts of Africa or
central Asia.^19
Territorial expansion is defined as an action that pertains only to territo-
rial expansion of states, and in the current study, territorial expansion of
polar powers at the end of the wars in which they participated.
Although the intrasystemic dependent variable in the study is territorial
expansion of polar powers at the end of the wars in which they have par-
ticipated, I have chosen to discuss briefly the additional dependent vari-
able, that of expansion of influence. Through this discussion, I shall avoid
the predisposition of theoretical international relations research to treat
these two terms as one, which would distort their meaning and could lead
to erroneous conclusions. I shall briefly discuss the expansion of influence
of polar powers to assert the difference between it and territorial expan-
sion of polar powers to avoid drawing the wrong conclusions.