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14 March 2020 THE WEEK
ARTS
“Thisisahellofamomentforabook
likethistocomeout,”saidSteveBleach
inTheSundayTimes.Somuchso,
“somemightassumeit’salightning-fast
cash-inonaglobaltragedy”.They’d
bewrong:epidemiologistAdam
Kucharski,amathematicianwho
workedonthefightagainsttheEbola
andZikaviruses,completedhisstudy
of“howthingsspread”beforeCovid- 19 hadevenbeenheardof.
Althoughthebookdoesn’tdirectlyaddressthevirus,itscentral
argument–thattohalttheprogressofadiseaseyou“firsthave
tomasterthearithmetic”behindit–isof“pressinginteresttoall
ofus”.Therearemathematicalprinciplesgoverningcontagion,
heargues,andthesecanbe “appliedtoeverythingfromfolk
stories and financialcrisestoitchingandloneliness”.
Atthe heartofTheRulesofContagionisthe conceptof“R”,
or“reproductivenumber”,saidTomChivers inTheTimes.In
epidemiology,thisistheaveragenumberofpeopleeach infected
personwillgoontoinfect.The conceptwasn’tformulateduntil
the 1970 s,butthe“basicinsight” was developednearly acentury
earlier,bytheVictoriandoctorRonald
Ross.Inthecourseofhispioneering
workonmalaria,Rossrealisedthat to
successfullycontroladisease,youdon’t
needtoeradicateeverycase:“you
simplyhavetomakeitharderforitto
spread,sothatitsRdropsbelowone”.
Oncethathappens,itwilleventually
peterout.Covid-19’sR(likethatofflu)
isthoughttobebetween1.5and 3 .5:
theurgentchallengeformedical
authoritiesistousethetoolsavailable
- mostlyquarantiningandrestricting
movement–tobringitbelowone.
Unchecked,itwillfollowan“S”shape,
“withthenumberofnewinfections
shootingup,untilitstartstorunout
ofsusceptiblepeople”.
Whileepidemicssharemanycommonfeatures,theyalsoall
have“distinctiveaspects”,saidCliveCooksonintheFinancial
Times.“Neverbefore,forexample,hasinformationabouta
newdiseasespreadaroundaninterconnectedworldmorerapidly
thanduringthe 2020 coronavirusepidemic.”Whilethishas
advantages(societiesandindividualsmaybe betterprepared),it
alsohasdrawbacks,increasingtherisk ofpanicand paranoiaand
causingmisinformation tospreadlikea“contag ion”–such asthe
ideathatthevirus escapedfromagerm warfarelabin Wuhan.At
anyrate,by“distilling thewisdomgatheredbystudyingprevious
epidemicsovermore thanacentury”,Kucharski’sbookallows
“thereadertomakesense ofwhatishappeningtoday”.
The Rules of Contagion
by Adam Kucharski
Profile 352pp £16.99
The Week Bookshop£14.99
Review of reviews: Books
Bookoftheweek
In 2016 ,thedocumentary-makerChrisAtkinswas
givenafive-yearprisonsentenceforusingatax
scamtofundoneof hisfilms, saidRosamund
UrwininThe SundayTimes.Havingbecomethat
“rarebreed,amiddle-class liberalwhohasseenthe
truehorror ofour penalsystem”,he has“donethe
inevitable”and written amemoirabouthistime
inside. Focusingon hisfirstninemonths injail,at
HMP WandsworthinsouthLondon,ABitofa
Stretchisadarklyfunnywork whichalsomakesa
compelling case forreform. Atkins startsoutinagraffiti-ridden cellin“ Beirut”,
one of Wandsworth’s toughest wings,said YvonneRobert sinThe Observer.
His cellmate,acocainedealer named Ted, soongives himavaluable lesson in
“shitiquette”: he turns upthevolume on theVictoria Derbyshireshow on
television anddisappearsbehind the toilet curtain.“Why dowe havetolisten
to this crap?” Atkinsasks. “Soyou don’t have tolisten to mine,”Tedreplies.
Most prisoners on Beirutarelocked up 23 hoursaday, saidBlakeMorrison
in The Guardian.Toget out of his cell, andearn money and otherprivileges,
Atkins involves himself in as many activities asposs ible –including “drylining”,
even though he hasnoidea what thatis.Soon, heis moved toHwing, the
“prisonequivalent of Hampstead”,where, ina“strange mirror of wider
society”, he is surrounded by fellow formerpublic schoolboys. Atkins is a
“fantasticallyinformative”guide tolife inside, offering sharp insights and
“boxes fullofs tatistics”, along with amusingexamplesofprison sl ang (an
electronic tagis a“chav nav”or“PeckhamRolex”).Heendswith aset of
“straightforward proposals”for making prisonsboth more humaneandmore
effective.“What arethe chancesoft hembeing adopted?”
ABit ofaStretch
by Chris Atkins
Atlantic 336pp £16.99
The Week Bookshop£14.99
Novel of the week
English Monsters
by James Scudamore
Jonathan Cape 368pp £16.99
The Week Bookshop£14.99
James Scudamore’sfourth novel isa“heart-
wrenching account” of the legacy of boarding
school abuse, said PhilipWomackinthe FT.In
the mid-1980s, ten-year-old Maxiss ent to “the
school on the hill”,where pupilsare “terrorised
by various hideous masters”. In his 20s, heruns
into an oldclassmateand discovers that the
schoolwas alsoasite of “systematicsexual
abuse”.Harrowingand richly insi ghtful,English
Monstersis a“searing indictment ofaculture
that downplays andcovers up horrors”.
Scudamore isatalentedwriter, and this
additionto the growing“child- abusefiction”
genre is full of “resonant phrases”, said David
GryllsinThe SundayTimes. However, the
sections setin Max’s adulthoodare “repetitive
and rambling”: he appears“unduly fascinated
by the coke-fuelledraves” of his “gildedbut
dam aged” friends.The co verisa dornedwith
aquote fromHilary Mantel,which proclaims
Scudamore to bea“forcein theEnglish novel”,
said John Self in The Spectator.Althou gh not
perfect, thisbookhas a“reac hand scope” which
“makes me think t hat Mantelmight beright”.
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Contagion:governedbymathematicalprinciples