The Spectator - 29.02.2020

the spectator | 29 february 2020 | http://www.spectator.co.uk 11

Cox replaced as Attorney General by Suella

Braverman, and Brandon Lewis take over

as Northern Ireland Secretary — along with

the instructions given to the government’s

Task Force Europe suggests that the govern-

ment intends to take an aggressive approach

to this issue.

T

he end-of-year deadline is causing irrita-

tion too. The EU thinks that the UK is

trying to use this deadline pressure to force

concessions, and the French are already dis-

missing it as a form of ‘blackmail’. Boris

Johnson, by contrast, feels that the EU is

ignoring the fact that it signed up to trying

to get a deal by 31 December in the politi-

cal declaration. One of his first acts after

re-election was to repeat his line from the

campaign trail that there will be no exten-

sion to this deadline.

The European side have taken umbrage

at the UK’s immigration proposals, which

offer no preference at all to EU citizens.

(‘I’m not a racist,’ a diplomat put it recently,

‘but you propose to treat Europeans as you

do Indians.’) To them, this is baffling, though

not to Britain, which is home to more

Indians than to citizens of any EU country.

There is another way of looking at the

immigration proposals. By coming up with

an immigration system that doesn’t discrimi-

nate between EU citizens and the rest of the

world, the UK has ensured that if the EU

wants any preference for its citizens, then it

must offer something in exchange. Indeed,

the nature of the new points-based system

means that EU citizens could — as part

of a trade deal — be offered preferential

treatment without the UK losing control of

immigration policy.

The EU and the UK are set for a bad-

tempered first few meetings. But, para-

doxically, those who want a deal should be

hoping for a row sooner rather than later.

The two sides need to get it out of their sys-

tems and realise that the other is serious

about their position before they can start

negotiating properly.

At the moment, there is an air of despair

about the prospects for a deal even among

those who are normally optimists. One of

those close to the negotiations on the UK

side tells me: ‘Maybe there’s a way through,

but I can’t see it.’ Yet Brexit compromises

are hiding in plain sight. On the ‘level play-

ing field’, for example, the UK could say

that while it will not follow EU rules, it will

maintain its already high standards. The

UK exceeds EU requirements on minimum

wage, holiday rights, maternity leave and

more. On the environment, our pledge to hit

In several areas the compromises

are hiding in plain sight if only the

two sides have the will to see them

‘net zero’ by 2050 was made months before

the EU said it would do the same. Britain

could pledge not to backtrack on any of this

— and agree that if it does, the EU could

respond by imposing tariffs and quotas.

But when Tory ministers talk about the

opportunities of Brexit, they talk about

the ability to diverge from EU rules. The

UK desire to make itself into a hi-tech hub

means that when it comes to data protection,

for instance, it is likely to want to diverge

from the EU’s cumbersome GDPR regime.

No country has ever left the EU before.

No trade deal in recent times has been about

where to put up barriers rather than take

them down. So it is unsurprising that the

negotiations are off to such an uncertain —

and emotional — start. But realpolitik faces

both sides. If talks fail, there will be serious

and avoidable consequences — and not just

for trade. An EU-UK alliance makes sense

for both sides. It is simply not realistic to

think that two sides involved in an economic

standoff could continue to be the closest of

allies on foreign and security matters.

A UK government that knows its own

mind, believes in the benefits of divergence

and has a stable parliamentary majority is

going to take a far more robust approach

to these negotiations than the May govern-

ment ever did. The EU — which has under-

standably come to view a lot of British tough

talk as bluster — should appreciate that. But

above all, both sides should remember that

a failure to reach a deal would be an epic

failure of statecraft.

SPECTATOR.CO.UK/PODCAST

James Forsyth and Peter Foster, Europe

editor of the Telegraph, on the battle ahead.

War m-up Act

The morning insists my coffee’s getting cold.

It’s early and frost still crisps the lawn.

Not everyone shall live until they’re old

and some might rue the day that they were born.

There was a time I’d watch the dawn like this

and smoke the day’s first cigarette.

Now caffeine is the poor alternative. Tant pis...

What is this life without regret?

Or procrastination’s melancholy?

The aura of something that seems to be in code.

Not stubborn news, collective guilt,

beyond capture or redress in endless overload.

So I draw out my little warm-up act, and sip,

staring like an old man who’s half out of it.

Rehearsing how to give the hour the slip.

Waiting for a cue to make an exit.

—Andrew McNeillie

James Forsyth_29 Feb 2020_The Spectator 11 26/02/2020 13: