Stephen D. Krasner
54 «¬® ̄°±² ³««³°® ́
The key to helping these places reach
consolidated democracy is to identify
and support the right local leaders.
Even democratic elections, after all, can
produce leaders with little commitment
to democracy, such as Brazilian Presi-
dent Jair Bolsonaro and Turkish Presi-
dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan. And some
leaders who have only a limited com-
mitment to democracy can prove to be
valuable partners, as Hirohito did in
Japan after World War II.
Knowing which leaders are likely to
deliver good enough governance—re-
gardless o their commitment to democ-
racy—requires an intimate knowledge o
local elites, their beliefs, and their
followers. To that end, the U.S. State
Department should alter its practice o
moving Foreign Service o¾cers from
post to post every two or three years and
instead institute longer stays so that they
can develop a close, deep understanding
o the countries to which they are
assigned. The department will also need
to ¥nd ways to allow Foreign Service
o¾cers to have greater access to and
more inuence with top decision-makers.
With luck, the United States, work-
ing with other advanced democracies,
might succeed in moving some countries
toward consolidated democracy and the
greater wealth that comes from unleash-
ing individual initiative and constraining
the state from seizing its fruits. Most
o the world’s polities, however, are not
going to make the jump to sustained
growth or full democracy. In those places,
most o which are poor, despots are too
anxious to cling to power. Here, too,
the most important task is to pick the
right leaders to support. First, Washing-
ton should ask not whether local elites
are committed to democratic values butstrengthening the U.S. alliance system,
containing or deterring threats to the
U.S.-led order, keeping trade barriers
low, and sharing intelligence.
Demonstrating the eectiveness o
democracy is not an easy task. The U.S.
Constitution is di¾cult to change.
What worked at the end o the eight-
eenth century does not necessarily work
today. The U.S. Senate is growing less
democratic as the population ratio
between the most populous and the
least populous state increases. That
ratio was about 13 to 1 (Virginia to
Delaware) when the Constitution was
written; it is now more than 60 to 1
(California to Wyoming). This means
that a small part o the population (less
than 20 percent) can frustrate legisla-
tion. The Internet has changed political
communication. Anyone can publish
anything, including groups acting at the
direction o¤ foreign entities, which can
now inuence U.S. politics far more
cheaply and easily than in the past. And
as digital technology advances, distin-
guishing between true and false infor-
mation will only become harder.
Imperfect though American democracy
may be, Washington can nevertheless
help countries that are in transition. The
best chances exist in the 19 countries
with per capita annual incomes between
$7,000 and $17,000 and Polity scores o
six or higher, a group that includes
Botswana, Brazil, Croatia, Malaysia, and
Panama. The most promising candidates
in this group are former satellite states
o the Soviet Union, such as Bulgaria
and Romania, which have relatively high
incomes and levels o education, robust
̄º development programs, and, in many
cases, leaders who want their countries
to be a part o¤ Europe.