Barron\'s 03.16.2020

(やまだぃちぅ) #1

March 16, 2020 BARRON’S 21


pany has moved up the value chain to


sell a whole solution, driving faster


revenue growth, profit margins, and


return on capital. West has no debt.


There might be attractive acquisition


opportunities for it, as well.—L.R.R.


SONAL DESAI


Barron’s: How does the economy


look to you?


Sonal Desai:For the full year, U.S. real


GDP could be 2% to 2.25% (versus


2.5% to 2.75% estimated in January).


Regarding the virus, people tend to be


healthier [here] than in China, so it’s a


better starting point. [We have a] youn-


ger population, relative to Italy. And,


the Federal Reserve has cut rates and is


likely to cut again. If I’m correct, the


economy is set up for a recovery, and


the global economy is slowly coming


back. That’s why we don’t see a global


meltdown similar to the financial cri-


sis. This might be a different kind of


panic that has a lot to do with starting


[equity] valuations.


Where is the U.S. dollar headed?


The euro zone is likely to be weaker in


recovering than the U.S. I expect the


European Central Bank to be accom-


modative for longer. I prefer the dollar


to the euro, but I like the Japanese yen


against the dollar. The yen makes a


good hedge. In periods of risk aversion,


Japanese investors bring money home,


causing the yen to appreciate.


What about the bond market?


I expect Treasuries to be well-sup-


ported until we get greater clarity on


the U.S. fiscal policy response—and


some visibility on how Covid-19 evolves


in the U.S. Corporate bonds will re-


main stressed. We look for companies


that have good balance sheets and li-


quidity to withstand this uncertainty.


I’m not buying right now, but look-


ing carefully. My high-yield debt team


was concerned coming into the year


about how much spreads in BB-rated


credits had contracted. Now, as they


are beginning to blow out, we may find


opportunities. We are looking for seg-


ments of the market that should be


relatively immune to the current envi-


ronment—for example, pay TV.—R.K.


JAMES ANDERSON


Barron’s: Is this selloff overdone?


James Anderson:Despite the human


damage [from the virus], it is hard to


understand among the companies we


own why the present value of future


cash flows has collapsed as much as it


flagging for a while. A setback like this


reveals the fragility of the corporate


structure—and it is worldwide.


Do you see a continued flight to


bonds?


It isn’t surprising to see investors rotate


out of risk assets into safe ones, with


U.S. Treasuries as the key beneficiary.


It feels like a crowded trade. Any re-


spite in the health crisis, either


through a cure for the virus, a vaccine,


or containment of new cases, could


cause Treasuries to sell off, as investors


reallocate to riskier assets.


What should investors do?


I am finding buying opportunities in


the consumer-discretionary sector,


while consumer staples feel over-


valued. The No. 1 priority is to review


your portfolio and see which compa-


nies are most exposed: those with high


fixed costs and volatile revenue


streams. Airlines come to mind. Inves-


tors’ first concern tends to be earnings


risk. At times like this, they should first


think about balance-sheet risk. Earn-


ings will be hit because there will be a


global economic slowdown, but compa-


nies with strong balance sheets, prefer-


ably net cash, and resilient business


models could see that demand for their


products and services is secure, even if


it is delayed.


The other big risk is illiquidity. In


Europe, a lot of exchange-traded funds


are trading at discounts to net asset


value, which has fallen. This suggests


people think the underlying assets


can’t be liquidated. It’s particularly true


“I am looking at equipment


rental companies.”


Mario Gabelli
Chairman and CEO
Gamco Investors
Rye, N.Y.

in the bond market, but also the equity


market. In addition, watch the high-


yield market, a leading indicator for


equities that tends to be a good barom-


eter of stress in the system.—R.K.


HENRY ELLENBOGEN


Barron’s:Havewehitbottomyet?


Henry Ellenbogen:If anyone tells you


they know where the market will bot-


tom, stop listening. The bull market


was approaching its 11th anniversary.


Valuations were extended. We knew


we were going to have a down market,


but not what would cause it. Now we


know it was caused by uncertainty


about three factors: the duration of the


virus, its near- and longer-term impact


on the economy, and a divided political


environment in an election year. The


market is wrestling with the first two;


there is a wide range of possible out-


comes. With the election, at least, there


is time certainty.


The market is starting to get attrac-


tive. I’m spending a lot of time thinking


about what companies we want to own


on the other side of this. Which will be


the leaders? Currently, all stocks are


being treated similarly. But all compa-


nies aren’t going to come out the same


way. We have a shopping list, and we


are buying.


What have you snagged?


Quaker Chemical[KWR] is a cyclical


company with a good balance sheet. It


entered the downturn strong and will


exit stronger, but the range of earnings


in the next two years is uncertain.


Quaker sells chemicals and lubricants


to global industries. It has service pro-


fessionals on-site at its largest custom-


ers, helping to ensure they run effi-


ciently. The company has a high-90%


customer retention rate.


Quaker recently merged with


Houghton International, creating the


market leader. Yet it has only a 15%


market share. The deal synergies are


significant. Quaker has created a global


operating platform to do acquisitions.


The company is tied to global GDP and


tends to outpace it. It generates good


cash flow, and will benefit significantly


from lower oil prices, which will some-


what offset the decline in global GDP.


We also boughtWest Pharmaceu-


tical Services[WST]. It is a more sta-


ble business with a strong balance


sheet that has good earnings visibility


and will exit the downturn stronger.


West makes containers for drugs, in


particular biologics, contained in a


liquid. It has a more-than-70% market


share in stoppers for liquid drug con-


tainers. The cost of what West does is


less than 1% of the product’s price. It is


the global market leader and continues


to gain share in biologics, a segment


growing faster than the drug industry.


The traditional business was around


the stoppers, but increasingly the com-


“This crisis will


reinforce the


power of Tesla’s


position.”


James Anderson
Partner, co-manager,
Baillie Gifford Long Term Global Growth fund
Baillie Gifford
Edinburgh

“The energy majors...


will be fine with oil at


$40 a barrel.”


Abby Joseph Cohen
Advisory director and senior investment strategist
Goldman Sachs
New York
Free download pdf