IBSE Final

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How a disease spreads

Total number of infected or the duration of

an epidemic

Predict the outbreak pattern of COVID-19

epidemic

To predict the projection of upcoming

cases for Malaysia from previous cases in

other countries

The SIRmodel is one of the simplest models to predict

properties of how a disease spreads. JP Morgan used a

model based on SIRto estimate the COVID-19

epidemic curve in Malaysia

S: the susceptibles, which can get the disease.

I: the infected, who have the disease and can transmit it.

R: the removed, either recovered and immune, or isolated, or

sadly dead (

Kermakand McKendrickin 1927 Infuenza epidemic in an

English school 1978 )

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