552 THE END OF THE COLD WAR
- DCI talking points for National Security Planning Group, 16 April 1986, p. 1:
ibid. - ‘USSR: Facing the Dilemma of Hard Currency Shortages. A Research Paper’:
Office of Soviet Analysis, 1 May 1986, pp. 1–4 and 9–11; ‘Implications of the
Decline in Soviet Hard Currency Earnings: National Intelligence Estimate’,
September 1986, pp. 7 and 11: ibid. - A. Hartman (Moscow embassy) to G. P. Shultz (cable), 15 November 1986:
RRPL, Stephen Danzansky Files (NSC): RAC, box 1. - H. S. Rowen, ‘Living with a Sick Bear’, National Interest, no. 2, winter 1985–
1986, pp. 14–26. - Interview with Harry Rowen, 1 August 2013; S. I. Danzansky to J. M. Poin-
dexter (preparatory memo), 9 April 1986: RRPL, Coordination Office, NSC
Records, box 11; K. Lundberg, ‘CIA and the Fall of the Soviet Empire: The
Politics of “Getting It Right”. A Case Study’ (1994), p. 14: CIA Papers. - Personal communication from Harry Rowen, 3 August 2013.
- W. J. Casey to National Intelligence Officer for the USSR, 22 April 1986:
William J. Casey Papers (HIA), HIA-CASEY 3-A-5-26-2. - See the balanced verdict of the early post-Soviet enquiry by D. M. Berkowitz,
J. S. Berliner, P. R. Gregory, S. J. Linz and J. R. Millar in ‘An Evaluation of the
CIA’s Analysis of Soviet Economic Performance, 1970–90’, Comparative
Economic Studies, no. 2 (1993). - G. P. Shultz to R. Reagan, memo, 5 March 1986, pp. 1–3: RRPL, Jack Matlock
Files, box 15, folder: Matlock Chron. March 1986. - Executive Secretary N. Platt to J. Poindexter, memo, n/e 5 March 1986,
pp. 1–2: ibid. - C. Hill, notes (16 April 1991) on ‘Soviet Union 3’, p. 4: Charles Hill Papers
(HIA), box 64, folder: G. P. Shultz – ‘Turmoil’ – Draft – Soviet Union.
17: The Stalled Interaction- V. M. Falin (interview), HIGFC (HIA), box 1, folder 15, p. 8.
- A. G. Kovalëv (interview), ibid., box 2, folder 6, p. 6.
- E. Shevardnadze, Kogda rukhnul zheleznyi zanaves: vstrechi i vospominaniya,
p. 92; T. G. Stepanov-Mamaladze working notes, 17 February 1991: T. G.
Stepanov-Mamaladze Papers (HIA), box 3. - T. G. Stepanov-Mamaladze diary, 18 January 1986, ibid., box 5.
- Ibid., 25 February 1986.
- R. Z. Sagdeev, The Making of a Soviet Scientist: My Adventures in Nuclear
Fusion and Space from Stalin to Star Wars, p. 272. - M. S. Gorbachëv, speech to the Party Congress, 25 February 1986: M. S.
Gorbachëv, Sobranie sochinenii, vol. 3, pp. 305–6, 358 and 361. - See D. Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, pp. 727–
31. - O. Grinevsky and L. M. Hansen, Making Peace: Confidence Building, p. 475.