2020-02-10 Bloomberg Businessweek

32

Edited by

Weston Kosova

● A muddledoutcomeand

low voter turnoutmadethe

country’s firstpresidential

primary contestanunmitigated

disaster forDemocrats

TheIowacaucusesusuallyplaya criticalroleinthe

presidentialprimaryprocessbytestingthecandi-

dates,winnowingthefield,andslingshottingthe

top two or threefinisherstonationalprominence.

The results comingoutofIowaoftenshapethe

nationalnarrativefortherestoftherace.Butthis

year’sapp-inducedfiasco,whichproduceda low-

confidence splitdecisionbetweenPeteButtigieg

and Bernie Sanders,won’tevenfulfillthatbasic

function. The onlycertaintycomingoutofIowa

was that all of thecandidatesarenowgoingonto

New Hampshire.

Instead of clarifyingquestionsofviabilityand

The Mess

moving the party forward in settling on a nominee,

it did the opposite.

Absent a clean result, candidates like Joe Biden

and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar who

placed well below the first tier escaped the reck-

oning that ordinarily accompanies disappointing

finishes. A decisive Buttigieg or Sanders victory

typically would have produced a fundraising

windfall, glowing media coverage, and a strong

bounce in the polls—since 1976, the Iowa winner

has gained an average of more than 12 points in

national polls in the month following the cau-

cuses. With no one getting that boost, no one will

be forced from the race.

For the party’s left wing, the results were a

frustrating muddle. The tepid third-place finish

of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren rati-

fied the belief that she’s fallen back from last fall’s

front-runner status and isn’t broadening her coa-

lition into a unifying movement that could go all

the way. And while Sanders remains a viable threat

to win the nomination, he didn’t demonstrate

P O L I T I C S

Bloomberg Businessweek February 10, 2020