The Economist - USA (2020-04-04)

42 Europe The EconomistApril 4th 2020

I

t wasonly51 daysold,butcovid-19was

usedtokillit.OnMarch25tha big

majorityofdeputiesinKosovo’sparlia-

mentvotedtosnuffoutthegovernment

ofAlbinKurti,a radicalreformer.They

mayhavebeendoingAmerica’sbidding.

DonaldTrump’sadministrationwanted

thetruculentprimeministeroutofthe

wayinordertoclaimpeaceinKosovoas

a (rare)foreign-policysuccessinthe

run-uptoAmerica’spresidentialelec-

tion.Itsfriendshaveprovided.

MrKurtispentmorethan 20 yearsasa

protestleader.AfterlastOctober’selec-

tionmonthswerespentcobblingtogeth-

era coalitionwiththeparliament’ssec-

ond-largestparty,theDemocraticLeague

ofKosovo.Meanwhilehislong-standing

enemy,PresidentHashimThaci,was

talkingtoSerbia’sleader,Aleksandar

Vucic,abouta dealtomakepeacebe-

tweenKosovoandSerbia.Kosovo,whose

peoplearemostlyethnicAlbanians,was

a provinceofSerbiauntiltheBalkanwars

ofthe1990s.Serbiahasneverrecognised

itsindependence,thoughmosteucoun-

triesanda majorityofunmembershave

doneso.

OnceinpowerMrKurtiannounced

thathewouldnowtakechargeofthe

talksandthathewasagainstanyterrito-

rialexchangeswithSerbia,whichMr

Thaciisthoughttohavediscussedasthe

priceofpeace.MrVucicthensaidhe

woulddoa dealonlyif tariffsonSerbian

goodswerelifted.MrKurtiagreedto

that,butonlyonthebasisof“reciproci-

ty”,meaningthatgoodsfromSerbia

would,insteadoftariffs,besubjecttoa

non-tariffbarrierintheshapeofa banif

thosesametypesofgoodsarebanned

fromsaleinSerbia.Liftingthesebanson

Kosovarproduceisunacceptableto

Serbia,asit believesthatdoingsowould

implyrecognitionofthecountry.Sothe

proposalwasswiftlyrejectedbyRichard

Grenell,theactingAmericanintelligence

head,whoisoverseeingthepeacetalks.

Americanfinancialaidwassuspended.

(MrThaciandtheAmericansbothdeny

favouringanylandswaps.)

LastweekMrKurti’sgovernmentwas

votedoutinparliament,ina procedure

ostensiblyprovokedbya rowoverthe

declarationofa stateofemergencyow-

ingtocovid-19,whichwouldhavegiven

thepresidentmanyexceptionalpowers.

MrKurti’ssupportersarebitter.They

believehewastheironlychancetorid

thecountryofthecorruptleadersand

warlordsofthepast.

Weeksofwranglingwillnowfollow.If

it werenotforthevirusa snapelection

couldhavebeencalled.A dividedand

unstablecornerofEuropehasjustbe-

comea littlemoreprecarious.

A Balkanbust-up

Kosovo

HavetheAmericansjusthelpedtooustKosovo’sreformistgovernment?

SERBIA

NORTH

MACEDONIA

BOSNIA

ALBANIA

GREECE

KOSOVO

MONTE-

NEGRO

ROMANIA

ITALY

SLOVENIA

CROATIA

Ad

ri

at

ic

Sea

Belgrade

Pristina

BU

LG

AR

IA

150 km

T

he chatteris flowing almost as freely

as the beer at the Stammtisch (regulars’

table) in Neubeuern, a pretty Bavarian

town near the Austrian border. Supporters

of the Christian Social Union (csu), a con-

servative party that runs the state, have

gathered to take stock ahead of local elec-

tions. Asked if Markus Söder, the csuchief

and state premier, is doing well, all ten put

a hand up. Asked if he would be a good

chancellor, the tally falls to six; he would

struggle to hold Germany together, says a

dissenter. This informal poll was taken be-

fore Mr Söder imposed some of Germany’s

strictest social-distancing rules. His per-

formance since may have convinced some

of the doubters.

Bavaria, a big, rich, swaggering state,

has more covid-19 cases than any other. But

Mr Söder is having a good crisis. He closed

schools early; when other states followed it

seemed as if Munich rather than Berlin was

driving policy. He inserted himself into na-

tional economic debates and left other

state premiers, such as Armin Laschet in

North Rhine-Westphalia, who has said Ger-

many must think about easing restrictions,

looking flat-footed or naive. As others

catch up, Mr Söder finds new hobby-hors-

es: his current obsession is ramping up the

production of face-masks.

Mr Söder’s elevation to Germany’s de

facto corona-chief has surprised many, in-

cluding his own supporters. Sceptics were

legion when he took over in Bavaria two

years ago, says Ursula Münch at the Tutz-

ing Academy for Political Education. His

ambition, honed for years in the mudpit of

Bavarian politics, seemed too raw. He start-

ed silly culture wars. In October 2018 he lost

the csuits long-held majority, having tilted

rightward in a vain bid to squeeze the pop-

ulist Alternative for Germany. (He now gov-

erns with a smaller party, the Free Voters.)

Yet in the spirit of the outlandish cos-

tumes he loves to don in carnival season,

Mr Söder simply adopted a new identity.

Detecting Germans’ growing climate con-

cerns, he broadcast his love for bees and

trees. He found a statesmanlike tone with

wide appeal, stressing the economy and

technology. Mr Söder hopes to maintain

the csuas a broad church, emulating the

party’s other great leaders, Edmund Stoiber

and Franz Josef Strauss. “We have gone

through a tough process of transform-

ation,” says Markus Blume, the csu’s gen-

eral secretary. It seems to have paid off. As

Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (cdu)

slid in the polls, the csu, its sister party and

national coalition partner, stabilised.

Then came covid-19, which gave state

leaders, who run health care and public or-

der, a chance to shine. Germans used to

viewing Bavarians with a blend of scorn

and envy discovered an unfamiliar feeling

of respect. “I’m slowly becoming a Söder

fan,” says a bewildered tv-watcher in a re-

cent Berlin newspaper cartoon, fearing he

has contracted the fever. In a recent poll Mr

Söder emerged as Germany’s most popular

politician—even outpacing Mrs Merkel.

No wonder people are asking if he

might seek the biggest job of all. Mrs Mer-

kel will leave the chancellery at the next

election, in autumn 2021, and at some

point the cdu/csumust anoint a joint can-

didate to replace her. The victor of the

cdu’s agonising leadership contest—once

due to be settled in late April, but now on

pause—would be the obvious choice. But

the weakness of the field (which includes

Mr Laschet) and Mr Söder’s success run-

ning Bavaria had already begun to turn cdu

heads. His recent efforts have turned more.

Mr Söder has always insisted he has no

interest in quitting Munich for Berlin.

Now, when lives are at stake, he dismisses

the speculation as indecent. Messrs

Strauss and Stoiber both ran, but failed, to

become chancellor. Yet the longer Mr Söder

outshines his rivals, the more Germans

will wonder if he might seek to break that

Bavarian losing streak. 7

MUNICH AND NEUBEUERN

Bavaria’s premier is having a good

crisis

Germany’s would-be leader

Söder’s moment