MARKETS, AMPHORA TRADE AND WINE INDUSTRY 247
transportation is not a significant factor. In its essence, Lawall’s theory has a
common ground with the previously discussed idea that the dynamics of local
consumption closely reflect the dynamics of production. A quick look at the
charts (Figures 10.2– 4 ) presented here is enough to see that they fail to fit both
these theories. The estimated dynamics of Thasian production do not match
those for local sales, nor for sales in the largest markets; to a certain point (par-
ticularly after the mid-third century) it follows a logic different from sales in
the core-zone. Are the data biased and the graphs too far distant from reality?
It is possible, but I would like to offer a rational, market-based explanation
as well.
The reason why the theoretical expectations do not corroborate the resultsobtained for Thasos may be the theory itself. Volume of production is only one
factor affecting sales. In the case of a small-scale producer selling most of his
output in a limited area, the evidence from this area will be representative for
the production. However, for a large-scale producer with access to multiple
markets, other factors, such as demand and prices, could play significant roles,
including influencing his behavior at the local market.
The prices of Thasian wine were presumably higher in distant markets thanat home or in the core-zone. A large-scale merchant engaged in long-distance
ventures could offer a higher price for the wine, and buy a larger number of
amphoras at once, than the small-scale trader operating within the core-zone.
Thus the former would be the rational choice for a producer, or a local mid-
dleman, who wanted to sell his merchandise better. If the producers had such
profit-maximizing behavior, then in a period of low production and high
demand, the logical outcome would be exactly what the charts show for the
first three quarters of the foruth century: the amphoras would tend to go to
distant markets.
Let us accept the view that ancient producers and traders acted with aprofit-directed rationality. High income from distant markets during the fourth
century stimulated production growth (Figure 10.4), which increased the sup-
ply, and eventually caused a fall in the prices offered for the wine at distant
markets. As a result, some of the less-profitable markets in the core-zone and
those on the island became attractive, and part of the supply was allocated to
them. This is exactly what the charts in Figures 10.3 and 10.4 show for the late
fourth century and the first quarter of the third century BCE: diversification
of the markets, and higher participation for the core-zone and local sales. If
we continue to interpret the charts with the same logic, the following drop in
production coupled with a growth in core-zone sales should be a symptom of
problems at major long-distance markets. This is already a fact: at that time the
Black Sea market dropped, a phenomenon, which, because of its significance,
will be discussed at length.