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Chinese naval power, Japan and India recognized convergent interests and
pulled together to deal with their common challenge. Washington quietly
supported this process.
Beijing lobbied New Delhi not to align with Japan. Shortly before visits by
Japan’s defense minister and Prime Minister Abe in January 2014, China’s
ambassador to India authored an op-ed that appeared in a leading Indian
English-language newspaper. Ambassador Wei Wei’s article called on India
to stand with China, not Japan, in shaping Asia’s future. The ambassador
offered two key arguments: the history issue and the rapidly deepening and
mutually beneficial Sino-Indian economic relations. Regarding “history,”
Japan was again trying to develop into a “military power,” even though vis-
its to Yasukuni Shrine showed Japan was unrepentant. China and India had
stood together against Japan in the 1930s, and should again stand shoulder to
shoulder to block Japan’s nefarious efforts.^41 In Beijing, an MFA spokesman
said China hoped that Japan-Indian defense cooperation would “be condu-
cive to peace, stability and security of the whole region.”^42 To give substance
to these warnings, Chinese forces on the border stepped up patrol activity.^43
A prominent member of India’s National Security Advisory Board saw that
one purpose of China’s increased border “intrusions” was to “caution India
against drawing closer to the U.S., Japan or Vietnam as China could exert
military pressure on India at a place and time of its choosing anywhere along
the countries’ long border.”^44
During a May 2015 visit to Beijing, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi,
who had taken office a year earlier, pressed China to show greater consid-
eration for India’s security concerns and, thus, sincere friendship for India.
Speaking to reporters after talks with Xi Jinping, Modi said, “I stressed the
need for China to reconsider its approach on some of the issues that hold us
back from realizing the full potential of our partnership.”^45 “We covered all
issues, including those that trouble smooth development of our relations,”
Modi said.^46 Behind closed doors, Modi urged Xi to work toward fixing the
Line of Actual Control along the border as a step toward an early and final
settlement of the territorial dispute. Modi’s key leverage in persuading Beijing
to pay greater heed to India’s security concerns, is Beijing’s awareness that,
without such reassurance, India may well drift further into alignment with
Japan and the United States.
There are major obstacles in both Japan and India to genuine alignment
against China. In India there remains a deep strain of nonalignment and
strategic autonomy in the political culture. This, combined with the reality
that Indian alignment with US-allied Japan would be tantamount to Indian
alignment with the United States, constitutes a powerful Indian argument for
keeping Japan at arm’s length, at least in strategic if not in economic terms.
Many Indians fear getting dragged into US conflicts with China. There is also
fear that angering Beijing could lead to a genuine confrontation with China.