8 February 2020 | New Scientist | 21The UK’s nuclear
facilities are starting
to show their age
for EDF, which owns all of the UK’s
nuclear plants, to do so is another
matter, given the ageing problems
at Hunterston and Dungeness.
Some are looking to other forms
of nuclear power instead. Mini
plants known as small modular
reactors, such as those being
developed by US firm NuScale, are
one possibility, but Shellenbergersays going smaller won’t make
nuclear more economical in the
face of the rise of renewables.
Then there is nuclear fusion,
a cleaner source of energy than
current nuclear fission plants.
Unfortunately, it is still too far
off to help us prevent the globe
warming by more than 1.5°C,
which requires halving global
emissions by 2030.
A UK government-backed
fusion project is trying to build a
commercial fusion power station
by 2040, and two UK private
firms think they could deliver a
working reactor by 2030. None are
guaranteed to succeed, though.
In the meantime, the nuclear
industry will keep making its case
for being crucial to tackling climate
change by reducing emissions to
net zero. “Net zero needs nuclear
NOW,” the UK nuclear trade body
tweeted recently.
Shellenberger says he is
bullish about nuclear’s long-term
prospects, and China’s efforts both
domestically and abroad will be
key. But nuclear power’s prospects
in the short term are chaotic and
unpredictable, he says. “In the
short-term, it’s a knife fight in
a phone booth. It’s everywhere,
it’s difficult, it’s complicated.” ❚at the Rocky Mountain Institute
in Colorado takes a more extreme
view that existing nuclear plants
are now so expensive to run that
they should be shut down early.
“Today’s hot question is
whether existing reactors should
keep operating,” he says. “Most of
them cost more to run than their
output can earn, and more than
it would cost to provide the same
services by building and operating
new renewables or by using
electricity more efficiently.”
Shellenberger disagrees with
how Lovins counts the costs of
nuclear, and many observers think
nuclear plants should have their
lives extended rather than being
retired. Catherine Mitchell at the
University of Exeter, UK, a critic of
nuclear power, says she doesn’t
mind extensions so long as they
are safe, don’t last too long and are
overseen by a good regulator.
This is the approach being taken
in Florida, where the US regulator
recently approved reactors to
operate for 80 years, up from
60 years. “It’s the way to go,” says
Bowen. The UK’s regulator could in
theory make a similar decision, but
whether it would be economicalNASA; IMAGEBROKER/ALAMYCompetition from the falling
cost of renewables is another
reason that new nuclear plants
face an uphill challenge in some
countries. The cost per megawatt
hour of subsidising offshore
wind farms in the UK is now half
of that agreed for Hinkley Point C,
meaning even accounting for
the costs to the grid of their
variable nature, they are still
much cheaper than nuclear.
Antony Froggatt at UK think
tank Chatham House says there
used to be a clear contrast on cost
between nuclear and renewables.
“But now I think what we are
seeing is the cost of renewables
is going below that of all [forms
of electricity] generation.”
Europe has meanwhile seen a
political backlash against nuclear
power following the disaster that
struck the Fukushima plant in
Japan in 2011. Germany opted to
close its own plants, and the last
will be retired in 2022. As a result,
Germany’s emissions grew by
about 100 million tonnes of
carbon dioxide a year, roughly
a quarter of the UK’s annual
emissions, according to Carbon
Brief ’s estimates. One recent
analysis put the increased
healthcare and social cost at
$12 billion a year because of the
air pollution from coal plants
filling the gap left by nuclear.
Switzerland has also voted to
phase nuclear out and Belgium
will shut its reactors by 2025.
Even atomic stronghold France is
planning to drop nuclear from 75
per cent of the country’s electricity
to 50 per cent through installing
more wind and solar power.
Such phase-outs mostly work by
letting plants come to the natural
end of their life. But Amory Lovins
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The number of nuclear reactors
operating around the worldIs the sun about to set
on the nuclear power
industry?TONY VINGERHOETS/ALAMY STOCK PHOTO