8 February 2020 | New Scientist | 5FOR those of us who turn to science
for answers, the Wuhan coronavirus
outbreak is unsettling. We don’t know
what proportion of infected people are
likely to die (see page 9); our figures
for how many other people on average
each carrier infects are only estimates;
and the total number of cases is likely
to be far higher than those confirmed
so far. These three parameters are crucial
for epidemiologists who use models
to calculate how bad an outbreak will
get, but we don’t yet know what values
to punch into the models.
As cases in China soar, the list of
unknowns gets even longer. It remains
unclear whether the virus can spread
before symptoms show. We don’t yet
know how or when the virus is likely
to have crossed over from bats (see page
10), or why the first known human caseof the virus seems to have no connection
to the Wuhan food market where the
outbreak appears to have begun. Is every
case equally infectious, or are some
people unlikely to pass it on, while
others act as super-spreaders? And is the
virus only deadly for those who are older
or who already have chronic conditions?What we do know is that the outbreak
is likely to go one of three ways (see
page 8). As this magazine went to press,
the outbreak seemed on the verge
of becoming a pandemic – in which
multiple epidemics of an infection take
place across the world. From here, thevirus may either peter out or go truly
global. We can’t know yet how many
lives this would claim.
If it goes global, it could one day
resemble flu, which every year causes an
estimated 3 to 5 million cases of severe
illness, and about 290,000 to 650,
deaths. Flu can cause mild symptoms
in some people and much worse ones in
others, and most deaths occur in people
over the age of 65 – all of which may be
true for the new coronavirus.
There is another option. The race is
now on to find drugs and vaccines that
could help bring the virus under control
and prevent global exposure. While drug
development will take time, trials of
existing drugs are already under way in
China (see page 11). If successful, we may
be able to save many lives – although we
can’t yet calculate the number. ❚Deadly unknowns
We are still scrambling to understand how dangerous the Wuhan coronavirus is
The leader
“If the virus goes global, it could
one day resemble flu, which
every year causes hundreds
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