The Economist USA 03.21.2020

Whiplash

Covid-19,atMarch18th 2020

Sources:JohnsHopkinsCSSE;UN;OECD;

nationalgovernments;DatastreamfromRefinitiv

*Latest †2018orlatest ‡2020estimate

§Restaurantslimitedhours **Totalreturn

Numberofcases

doubleseveryday

...everysecondday ...everythirdday

...everyweek

Logscale

S.Korea Italy France Germany Spain Britain

Dateof100thcase Feb20th Feb23rd Feb29th Mar1st Mar2nd Mar5th

Totalnumberofcases

Casesper

100,000population

Numbertested*

Per1mpopulation

Hospitalbeds†

Per1,000inhabitants

Medianage,years‡ 43.7 47.3 42.3 45.7 44.9 40.

Pub/bar/rest.closures N o Ye s Ye s Ye s § Ye s N o

Stockmarkets

Mar1st-18th,%decrease

100,

10,

1,

100

Britain

Spain

SouthKorea

Italy

Germany

France

8,413 35,713 9,043 12,327 13,910 2,

16.3 60.4 13.8 14.9 29.9 3.

3 68 33

-19.9 -31.2 -29.3 -29.0** -28.1 -22.

5,567 2,514 168 249

12

Stopped

updating

testnumbers

Not

announced

252321191715131197531 28

Confirmedcases,selectedcountries

1

Dayssince100thcase

holduntilApril,andthehiatusislikelyto

bea lotlonger.Thissummer’sinternation-

alEuro 2020 tournamenthasbeenputoff

until2021 (ashastheCopaAmérica,which

wastotakeplaceinColombiaandArgenti-

na).TheGlastonburyfestivalhasbeencan-

celled;sowillmuchofthesummerbe.

Notallthestepsbeingimposedarewell

supported by evidence. Size limits on

smallergatherings—Austria,whichisim-

posingsomeofthestrongestrules,wants

nomore than five peopletogether at a

time—are open to question. Anastasia

PharrisoftheEuropeanCentreforDisease

PreventionandControl,theeu’spublic-

healthagency,sayssheknowsofnodata

supportingspecificcut-offsforgathering-

sizewithregardstocovid-19transmission.

Politiciansalsoseemmuchkeeneron

banninginternationaltravelthanepide-

miologistsare.TheWorldHealthOrganisa-

tiondoesnotrecommendbroadinterna-

tionaltravelrestrictions,ortheclosureof

borders. ButonMarch17ththeeubanned

non-essentialtravelinto theblocfor 30

days(seeEurope)—atthesametimethat

othercountries, fromIndia to America,

have bannednon-citizens arriving from

the eu. Experts agree cordonssanitaires

aroundwholeregionswillmakenodiffer-

encetotheepidemicsinindividualcoun-

triesatthispoint.

Perhapsthemostinterestingareaofdi-

vergence has been school closures. For

continentalcountries, theywere among

thefirstcontrolstobeputinplace,asthey

havebeenworldwide (seeInternational).It

wasnotuntilMarch18ththatfirstWales,

thenScotlandandfinallyEnglandsaidthey

wouldclosetheirs,too.

BecarefulofGrandma

Howusefulthiswillbewillvaryfromplace

toplace.Schoolclosuresmakemostsense

insocietieswhereoldpeoplespenda lotof

timewithchildrenandyoungpeopleand

disruptingthosetiesishard.Italy,where

abouttwo-thirdsofadultsaged18-35live

withtheirparents,andmanyhousescon-

tainthreegenerations,isa caseinpoint.At

thesametime,closingschoolsmeanspar-

entshavetofindsomeoneelsetolookafter

theirchildrenordoitthemselves.In 2009

researchersattheBrookings Institution,

anAmerican think-tank, estimated that

closingschoolsandnurseriesfora month

wouldcostAmericasomewherebetween

0.1%and0.3%ofgdp. Andiftheparent

worksin healthcare, thelosses willbe

morethanfinancial.TheBrookingspaper

estimated thatbetween 6% and 19% of

health-careworkerswouldhavetostayat

homeduringa schoolclosure;theEnglish

closuresallowforthechildrenofhealth-

careworkerstocontinuetogotoschool.

Thereisalsothequestionofwhentoin-

troduce such closures. In the Imperial

modellingtheclosureofschoolsanduni-

versitieshasa prompt,ifnotoverwhelm-

ing,effect.Buttheyalsohaveadelayed

cost.Thisisbecauseoftheeffecttheyhave

onthesecondwaveofthedisease.

Interventionswhichsuppressthere-

productionnumbersavea lotoflives.But

theydonotmakethepopulationimmune

tothedisease.Soifyourelaxtheinterven-

tions,thuslettingthedisease’sreproduc-

tionnumberrisebackup,itwillpromptly

setaboutinfectingthelargepoolofpeople

it missedthefirsttimeround.

ThemodelfromImperialshowedthis

well-knowneffectinaction.Afteritsfive

monthsofrestrictionswerebroughttoa

close,a secondwavestartedtobuildinlate

autumn.Whenthemodelwasrunwith

schoolsanduniversities closeddownat

thebeginningof thefirstoutbreak,this

secondwavewasconsiderablyworse,be-

causeimmunitybuiltupthroughinfec-

tion-in-the-course-of-education was ab-

sent(seechart2 onnextpage).

Concernsabouta secondwaveareone

ofthereasonsthatgovernmentscannotre-

assurecitizensoverjusthowlongthedis-

ruptiontonormallifewillcontinue,in-

steadbandyingabout “the timebeings”

and“comingweeksandmonths”.Feware

asopenastheRobertKochInstitute,a Ger-

mangovernmenthealthagency,insaying

that,in extremis, tough restrictions may

needtoremaininplaceuntila vaccinecan

bemade,testedandputintouse—aperiod

it seesaslastinguptotwoyears.

Even if governments were forthright

abouthowlongtheyexpectedtheirimpo-

sitionstolast,itisnotclearthatthedeci-

sionwillbetheirstomake.Infreesocieties

thedurationwill,inpractice,dependon

howcompliant peopleare,andfor how

long.TheteamatImperialreckonsthat,if

theirmeasuresaretoshowthedesiredre-

sults,compliancewitheachofthosemea-

suresmustbeatleast50-75%.Intheearly

daysthatmaybepossible:thechastened

andfinedFrenchwillnotbeoutinthe

samenumbersoverthecomingweekend

astheywereoverthepreviousone.Andas

hospitalsstart tofillandthenoverflow,

The EconomistMarch 21st 2020 BriefingThe pandemic 17

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