TheEconomistMarch 21st 2020 77S.KOREACHINAJAPANTAIWANChengduKunmingShanghaiGuangzhouHongKongTaipei443k458k 611k359k 478k359k1.4mWuhan6k1.2m168k302kBeijing Seoul Tokyo2019202020192020Scheduled
March16thScheduled
March16thScheduled
March9thScheduled
March9thQingming
festivalLabourDay
holidayJan Feb MarOneweek*inWithinAsia,
excludingChina†Within
EuropeWithinUS
orCanadaEuropeto
USorCanadaWithin
China†China†to
restofAsiaChina†to
EuropeChina†to
USorCanada-80-40020-20020DomesticflightsInternationalflightsJan Feb Mar Apr MayJan Feb Mar Apr May0.501.01.52.02.563
091215Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar→Inboundflightsto some Asian cities fell by more than 75% during FebruaryNumberofavailable airline
seatsarrivingincity, 2020Numberofavailableairlineseats,%changeona yearearlier,selectedweeks*China,weeklyavailable airline seats arriving†, mSources:OAG;CAPA *Weeks starting: Jan 13th, Feb 10th and March 16th †Mainland airports→Chineseairlinesplan to restore service rapidly before spring holidays→Thedropmostlyaffected China. Western capacity cuts have just begunO
f all the industries ravaged by co-
vid-19, aviation is one of the most af-
flicted. Governments have closed borders
and discouraged travel. In response, most
Western airlines plan to cut capacity on in-
ternational flights by about 80%. The de-
scent has been so steep that capa, a consul-
tancy, says that most airlines will go
bankrupt by the end of May without state
aid. Yet in the very country where covid-19
began, this trend has started to reverse.
In late January China imposed a quaran-
tine to contain the virus. Within weeks, ca-
pacity on both internal and international
routes fell by about 75%, making up nearly
all of the world’s cancelled flights in Febru-
ary. The decline in passengers was greater
still. Even after a big cut in capacity, 71% of
seats on flights to and from Guangzhou’s
biggest airport in February were empty.
Since then, China seems to have put the
worst behind it. The number of new co-
vid-19 cases it reports per day has dwindled
to a few dozen. Some observers doubt these
figures’ veracity. But the government is
confident enough to have closed its last co-
vid-19 hospital—and to promote flying. On
March 4th it began offering subsidies to
carriers that resume international flights.
On domestic routes, the recovery has al-
ready begun. Capacity has risen from 4.2m
seats per week in late February to 8.6m
now. In a filing on March 16th to oag, a data
provider, Chinese airlines increased the
number they expect to offer by April from
10m to 12.6m. That would nearly match last
year’s level in time for two big holidays, the
Qingming festival and Labour Day.
There is no guarantee that people will
fill these flights. The government owns
stakes in three of the four big Chinese carri-
ers, and could tell them to fly mostly empty
planes at a loss, to restore connectivity be-
tween cities and facilitate an economic re-
covery. Nonetheless, Chris Tarry, a consul-
tant, suggests that the schedule changes
are motivated at least in part by a genuine
rise in expected demand.
Airlines that serve China are displaying
more caution on international routes. As
Western countries tighten travel rules, oag
data show that carriers are heavily revising
down their seat capacity on flights entering
China in April. For months, the world wor-
ried about the risk posed by Chinese visi-
tors. Now, it may be China’s turn to worry
about travellers from abroad. 7As Western flights shut down, Chinese
routes are opening againEnding the
nosedive
Graphic detailCovid-19 and flights