↙
LAST YEAR, A GROUP OF AI LUMINARIES
issued a report about how their field could
forestall climate doom. The options were
grand but mostly theoretical. They described
how intelligent algorithms would pinpoint
materials for next-generation batteries or
model how seeded clouds reflect sunlight.
By comparison, a proposal to automate
lights and AC with deep learning looks rather
quaint. But there are huge efficiency gains to
be had from how we use indoor spaces—pro-
vided we don’t rely on humans to turn out the
lights. “We can try teaching people to change
their behaviors,” Spanos says. “But I don’t
think that’s going to be effective. You’re just
going to have to automate around it.”
To be sure, sensors already help over-
come our lapses. The lights at work come
on via motion detector; the Nest cools the
house while you drive home. But Spanos’
models strain at a core tension: using less
energy while still responding to people’s
wildly diverse inner thermostats. Individu-
als fiercely guard their preferences, says Jeni
Cross, a sociologist at Colorado State Univer-
sity. “You’ll always have unsatisfied people
jacking with the system.” She’s heard of AC
running full blast in winter because personal
space heaters had befuddled a thermostat.
In his research, Spanos ran simulations to
game out how all the movements and prefer-
ences of workers would interact. What if my
ideal fan settings freeze my neighbors? The
AI tries to broker a compromise. “It’s impos-
sible to satisfy everyone,” Spanos admits. But
maybe with enough time and data, he can
come close. (He expects initial results from
his trial in Singapore later this year.)
If Spanos succeeds, would we want to
work in this kind of panopticon, tracked by
Wi-Fi? “We’re still learning about how far
you go,” says Lee Chuan Seng, board chair
of Singapore’s environmental agency. Data
protections are a must, he says—but so are
experiments like this one, which could ulti-
mately inform commercial technology
exported across the tropics. Lee gets up to
adjust the AC and returns with a thought that
might be controversial: In the face of climate
change, maybe giving up some individual
control will become a necessary concession.
GREGORY BARBER (@GregoryJBarber) is a
wired staff writer.
SURFACE
RADIATION
MANAGEMENT
STRATO-
SPHERIC
AEROSOL
INJECTION
CIRRUS
CLOUD
THINNING
SPACE
SUNSHADE
WHAT IT IS HOW IT WORKS UPSIDE DOWNSIDE
MARINE
CLOUD
BRIGHTENING
To reflect sunlight
back into space,
countries paint their
roofs, roads, and
sidewalks white
and cover desert
regions in bright
polyethylene tarps.To have any real
effect, you’d need to
whiten 10 percent
of all the land on
Earth—the equiva-
lent of taking a paint
brush to most of
Russia. That’s a lot
of rubles.The tarps and
paint buckets
could be deployed
tomorrow.Drone ships spray
sea salt into the sky,
causing the clouds
above to thicken
and become more
reflective.Unknown effects
on ocean currents,
weather patterns,
and the creatures
that depend on
them (including us).The tool is fairly
precise. You could,
for instance, deploy
it over a dying coral
reef.Lower tempera-
tures on land and
sea; gorgeous
yellow-red sunsets.The cooling effect
may be strongest
near the poles,
where glaciers and
sea ice need it most.Blocking 2 percent
of solar rays would
cancel out all the
warming caused by
humans so far.The cost and com-
plexity are extreme.
One proposal would
require launching a
million small mirrors
every minute for 30
years. Possible side
effects: accidental
global cooling,
droughts.Planes, rockets,
artillery shells,
or balloons loft
millions of tons
of sulfates into
the atmosphere,
creating a layer
of particles that
scatters sunlight.The sky might stop
being blue; the stars
might fade; monsoon
disruptions might
cause drought in
Asia and Africa.
And if you try to
quit cold turkey, the
warming will come
back five times
faster than before.Drones fly up where
heat-trapping cirrus
clouds form and
spritz them with dust
or pollen. The clouds
curdle, leaving gaps
where heat can
escape.Rockets carry loads
of light-scattering
material into orbit
(mirrors, dust, metal
mesh) and build a
planetary parasol
that shields Earth
from the sun.Overseed the clouds
and they trap more
heat. Whoops!↙
LET’S BE CLEAR: TIME IS GETTING SHORT. Even as we race to build roads from carbon-
sequestering concrete (page 32), breed drought-resistant crops (page 46), and perfect our battery
tech (page 86), emissions keep rising. To avert the worst, we may need to turn to geoengineering—
the deliberate, large-scale manipulation of the environment to counteract climate change.
Technically, planting a lot of trees is a form of geoengineering. So is fertilizing the ocean with iron
filings to stimulate plankton growth. So is using massive CO 2 scrubbers to pull carbon directly from
the air. (In theory, anyway—that particular technology is still in alpha.)
But what if the planet could just put on a sun hat for a while? That way, at least, we could sop up
the carbon mess in relative comfort. Scientists have proposed a range of techniques—some common-
sense, some harebrained, some downright scary. Then again, isn’t climate change pretty scary too?Umbrella PolicyBYZak Jason and Anthony LydgateClimate fallback plans exist, but pay attention to the fine print.