The Rules of Contagion

(Greg DeLong) #1

  1. Fink D.S. et al., ‘Increase in suicides the months after the death
    of Robin Williams in the US’, PLOS ONE, 2018.

  2. Towers S. et al., ‘Contagion in Mass Killings and School
    Shootings’, PLOS ONE, 2015.

  3. Brent D.A. et al., ‘An Outbreak of Suicide and Suicidal Behavior
    in a High School’, Journal of the American Academy of Child and
    Adolescent Psychiatry, 1989.

  4. Aufrichtig A. et al., ‘Want to fix gun violence in America? Go
    local’, The Guardian, 9 January 2017.

  5. Quotes from author interview with Charlie Ransford, April 2018.

  6. Confino J., ‘Guardian-supported Malawi sex workers’ project
    secures funding from Comic Relief’, The Guardian, 9 June 2010.

  7. Bremer S., ‘10 Shot, 2 Fatally, at Vigil on Chicago’s Southwest
    Side’, NBC Chicago, 7 May 2017.

  8. Tracy M. et al., ‘The Transmission of Gun and Other Weapon-
    Involved Violence Within Social Networks’, Epidemiologic
    Reviews, 2016.

  9. Green B. et al., ‘Modeling Contagion Through Social Networks
    to Explain and Predict Gunshot Violence in Chicago, 2006 to
    2014’, JAMA Internal Medicine, 2017.

  10. Fitting a negative binomial offspring distribution to the cluster
    size distribution from Green et al., I obtained a maximum
    likelihood estimate for the dispersion parameter k=0.096.
    (Method from: Blumberg S. and Lloyd-Smith J.O., PLOS
    Computational Biology, 2013.) For context, MERS-CoV had
    R=0.63 and k=0.25 (from: Kucharski A.J. and Althaus C.L., ‘The
    role of superspreading in Middle East respiratory syndrome
    coronavirus (MERS-CoV) transmission’, Eurosurveillance, 2015).

  11. Fenner F. et al., Smallpox and its Eradication (World Health
    Organization, Geneva, 1988).

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