HurricaneCenterreportstoa printer
onthebridge.Theseso-calledsat-C
reportsarrivedintextformandre-
quiredtheplottingofJoaquin’sfore-
castedpositionsona chart.TheHurri-
caneCenter’smathematicalpredictive
toolswerehavinganunusuallydiffi-
culttimegettinga handleonJoaquin’s
forecastedpositions.Theresultingun-
certaintywasexpressedemphatically
intheforecasts,andDavidsonwas
awareofit.
Thesecondsourceforweatherin-
formationwasa subscription service
calledtheBonVoy-
ageSystem (BVS)
that processed
globalweatherdata
toproduceitsown
forecast,primar-
ilyin theformof
colourfulweather
maps,whichcould
beanimated and
overwhicha ship’s
coursecouldbelaid.Bythetimethe
datawasprocessed,itwasuptosix
hoursold,whichinthecontextof
Joaquinwasobsolete.TheBVSmap
gavenoindicationoftheageofthe
rawdata.
Davidsonknewthatalltheforecasts
wereuncertain,andthattheysome-
timesdisagreed.Buthowawarewas
hethatwhenhelookedattheBVS
mapshewaslookingintothepast?
Hewenttohisstateroom,andwhen
hereturnedtothebridgehesaid,“All
right,I justsentupthe latest weather.”
SchultzopenedtheBVSprogramat
thecharttable.Becauseofa software
glitch,themapthatappearedwasthe
verysamemapthathadcomeinwith
thepreviousdownload,sixhoursear-
lier,accordingtotheNationalTrans-
portationSafetyBoardreportonthe
disaster.Therawdataonwhichit was
basedwasatleast 12 hoursold.
DavidsonandSchultzdecidedthat
thestormwouldbea littletooclose
forcomfortwhenthetimecameto
crossitsbow.WorkingwithaGPS-
based plotter, theymadea slightright
turn, creating a
gentledoglegthat
wouldpass 16 kilo-
metresoutsideSan
SalvadorIslandand
put them 80 kilo-
metres from the
hurricane’seye.Da-
vidsonsaid,“Ithink
that’sagoodlittle
plan,chiefmate.”
Itwas6.40inthemorning,andthe
sunwascomingup.Davidsonsaid,
“Oh,lookatthatredskyoverthere.
Redinthemorning,sailorstake
warning.”
Davidsonleftthebridgeanda
freshhelmsmanandthethirdmate
showeduptostandthenextfour-
hour watch.Schultzbriefed the
thirdmate,JeremieRiehm,onthe
weatherandthediversion;ifworse
cametoworst,heexplained,they
couldturnbehindtheouterislands
and escape through one of severalRIEHMSTUDIED
THE WEATHER.
"WE'REGONNA
GETSLAMMED
TONIGHT,"
HE SAID118 April 2020
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